Straights Direct – Traders Notebook

Rape meal prices moved sharply higher on the continent this morning. Increasing line up prices by £5.00 per tonne & changing traders sentiment that there was still some downward

momentum.

Soya has been recovering all day with meal up $4.50 & beans up 12c on nearby position. Sterling however benefited from stronger than expected

CBI figures and the dollar has weakened by 0.25% against it. This may prolong what I see as a buying opportunity. To fill in any gaps for this winter.

Soybeans closed(29.10.12) at a weekly low, despite continuing strong exports. Weather in South America was considered helpful,

which promoted the belief that the South Americans can produce a record crop and ease supply side shortages. Othe grains also fell in very thin trading. So far today soya has regained some ground and mesl is up 0.56%

A shot in the arm for Sterling after a better than expected Q3 growth figure of 1%. May provide an opportunity today for nearby buying since as I type most grain markets are unchanged or lower.

Continued planting delays caused by rain in Argentina may cause acres intended for corn to be planted with soybeans.

Continued strong exports, with a further 105,000 Metric tonnes added to sales for this season yesterday help support an already buoyant soya market

24.10.12.

Ukraine is to ban exports of wheat from Nov 15. The announcement caused Chicago

wheat to close higher 24.10.12

Soybeans ended higher Tuesday, recovering from early losses,effected by slumping external markets, due to US growth concerns.The Bulls point to continued strong exports to China the Bears can hope for

a further increase in this Autumns harvest in the report due Nov 9 also weather has become less adverse in Argentina & Brazil where a potentially record crop is being planted. Wheat & Corn finished lower on global economic concerns & poor exports.

Wheat production in Australia, the world’s

second-biggest exporter, will probably decline 28 percent to the lowest level in five years.

Expected rain in both North & South America, have proved a disappointment. In the US & Brazil rain became mere showers whereas in Argentina planting is being delayed by rain. So it is not all plain

sailing as weather returns to a bullish slant.

Chinese oilseed harvest has been revised downwards & usage higher. This is offset by 4-8 inches of rain in the forecast for southern Brazil across the next 15 days, according to World Ag Weather, which will be a boost for new crop soybean plantings. Reports continue to come in that US yields are better than expected

for many farmers.

Yesterday’s USDA report was bullish for Corn and neutral for Soya, but the strength in Corn and Wheat took the Soya higher with them.

USDA report yesterday gave new wind to the Bulls as we saw the lowest carry over number for corn since this drought of a growing season. The bull case has to now be that we were able to make record highs 75 cents above where we are now on a USDA balance sheet that was no where near as tight as this one. On top of that, throw in a larger then expected quarterly usage in the September 1st stocks report and we can see that the USDA is still underestimating demand. For soybeans the Bulls are in less rich pasture it is hard to

see new highs conisidering US and world ending stocks. At the moment only good news comes from South America Brazil might produce twice as much soya as the US. I stress might, Mother nature is unlikely to be that generous, watch for the bull run if all does not go sweet in South Am. La Nina I here you calling calling calling!

The government probably will say tomorrow that the U.S. corn harvest and inventories

on Sept. 1 will be a combined 11.604 billion bushels, less than the 12.33 billion consumed and exported last year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 31 analysts. Soybean supplies will be 2.932 billion bushels, below the 3.157 billion used in 2011. Supplies failed to top usage from the previous year only twice since 1960 for corn and five times for soybeans.

Soy beans rose for second day in Chicago on speculation import demand may strengthen after

prices fell from a record.
Soy beans have dropped 14 percent from the all-time high of $17.89 a bushel on Sept. 4. Taiwan bought 60,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans from Bunge Ltd. for delivery in February at a tender today, the Breakfast Soybean Procurement Association-Taichung Group said in an e-mail.
“There have been some pretty heavy exports lately so some demand is being met,” William Adams, a fund manager at Resilience AG in Zurich, said today by phone. “If there is a good season in Australia and South America, we could see some more weakness.”
Soybeans for delivery in November climbed 0.8 percent to $15.43 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 10:51 a.m. in London. The oilseed yesterday advanced 0.1 percent after dropping 4.4 percent in two sessions.
Corn for December delivery gained 0.6 percent to $7.61 a bushel and wheat for delivery in the same month was up 0.1 percent at $8.7375 a bushel. Milling wheat futures jumped 1 percent on NYSE Liffe in Paris.

Corn has mostly held its gians after Friday 28th, Wheat although weaker is still

within the same range. Only Soya is truly down but even soya is expected to still have tight closing stocks 2013. Unless world demand slumps! Yet in the short term I remain beaish for Soya. The window may well be closing & maybe we should think about some long term cover sooner rather than later, as I may have indicated to some of you. THe harvest has progressed well and early in the US with some better than expected results for soya. So maybe that harvest low is now?

The USDA stocks numbers threw up their traditional surprise, only this time it was a bullish one for corn with Sep 1 stocks seen falling below a billion bushels which is 178 million less than the average trade guess of 1.166 billion. Corn subsequently rallied to

around 20 cents higher vs last night’s close having been 10 cents lower heading into the report. Soybean stocks conversely came in above the expected 132 million bushels at 169 million which was 17 million up on the highest trade estimate. Wheat production was bang in line with expectations at 2.269 billion bushels, although stocks of 2.104 billion were below the lowest trade estimate and 178 million under the average trade guess.

Dryness helps

US harvest in the north, but is a risk to 2013 crops as they are planted. Adequate rains in the Southern plains & Brazil leave the weather scenario mildly bearish for beans.

There are early indications that Soya Bean Rust will be a problem in Matto Grasso Brazil, this growing season. Spores on particularly the volunteer bean have survived longer than usually expected, without a host plant.

London Wheat futures moved up through the £200 mark this morning.

A Maize Distillers vessel is due to arrive in Teignmouth on Monday.

Over the last week we have seen Rapeseed meal drop £10 and Hi Pro Soya go up £10

Not a pretty picture . . .

Forecasters are predicting rain across the US mid-west. The Wheat, Corn and Soya markets made a sharp turnaround this afternoon.

Latest update will be posted shortly at Straights

Direct.co.uk.

Soybeans closed at $16.33 3/4, up 39 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at $15.90 1/2, up 38 cents; Aug 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD478.30, up USD13.20; Aug 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.65, up 95 points. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 7,000 soybean contracts on the day as temperatures

in the Midwest hit triple digits over the weekend. The USDA cut soybean crop ratings sharply once again, with only 34% now good/excellent and 30% now showing as poor/very poor.

Despite a very Bullish USDA

report before Chicago opened yesterday, the market closed down 16c. The main driver is still weather & conditions are slightly more benign.

Stocks of Organic Maize are running low in the UK. The next shipment is not due to arrive until September.

No new fixings available until the 24th July.

London wheat reached a one year high £165.50 (Nov 12).

ADM Erith broke down overnight. Rapemeal collections cancelled for today.

USDA WASDE. Bearish for corn, neutral wheat and bullish for
soya. For

more details click here.

For anyone who is looking, we have come across a limited tonnage of Maize Gluten available from Liverpool.

Over the last few days vessels carrying Soya Hulls have arrived in practically every port in the UK, except Southampton which is due in on the 20th June. This has taken the premium out of the price and they are trading at £10 to £15 a tonne lower.

No more fixings for Rapeseed Meal until the 19th June, due to high demand !

No new bookings available until the 24th July.

The cupboard is bare. None left in the UK !

The price of Soya Hulls in the UK has jumped as supplies tighten.

No more fixings for Rapeseed Meal until w/c: 11th June, due to high demand !

There are currently no Soya Hulls in Southampton. The next shipment arrives on or around the 22nd June.

Late frosts in Canada, and a late arrival of spring in the Ukraine should point to a very tight supply of Canola/Rapeseed this coming season. That would mean

lower rape crush, and therefore lower availability of rapemeal.

The latest prices page has just buy generic viagra been updated.

Markets falling

on world economic jitters and advantageous weather forecasts for the US , Russia & Ukraine.

Hi Pro Soya is up £10 a tonne since Wednesday.

Erith will be having their annual maintenance shutdown from Monday 9th July until 9pm Tuesday 17th July.
If you have Rapeseed Meal bought for July and need delivery before the 17th tell us now so that we can put bookings in before the shutdown.

Despite small falls on the May Soy position the market remains bullish on forward demand and successful early corn plantings in

US. This is seen as reducing acres available to soya

The soya markets in the US are at the highest level since 2008

It is not with us but Spain. Who are gearing up for a trade war with our old adversaries the Argies after their President Kirchner nationalised the Spainish Oil company Repsol. Spain suggests that the EU

block all imports from the rascally south americans. They may even get there way. Imagine if we had asked for that due to the way they have been treating the Falklands recently, fat chance.
What implications will it have for Soya prices in the EU? We do buy quite a bit from them.

The US figures were bearish on tuesday well

ish anyway. World fundamentals remain strong, but funds are long & so we see a profit taking slide as the boys look to book those bonuses. Is virtual the new reality?

Latest prices are now available.

Soya moves higher in some positions.
Rape meal broadly unchanged on the week.

Oil World have reduced their EU rapeseed 2012

production to 18.58 MMt with consumption still expected to be about 23MMT. The USDA have now cut expectations of the combined Argentine & Brazilian Soy crop by nearly 10MMT or 16% since December 2011. With demand steady the outlook for these commodities has to look firmer.

Rapemeal prices are looking like they have hit the top for the moment on the European markets.

It is onward &

upward folks.

USDA Figures planting figures are out. Corn Expected at 94.72 million acres came in at 95.9.
Soya expected to be 75.393 was 73.90 & Wheat expected at 57.422 was 55.9. We would expect Soya to move up on this

news. Corn has been falling in anticipation of these numbers this week, so it might not have too much more to give us.

European Rapemeal prices are up sharply today on the back of dry weather.

Soybeans wheat and especially corn posted falls todat

on the Chicgao market. Soya meal still manged a $1.70 rise!

Our new price list has

been updated today. There may be tentative signs of weakness in this market but overall prices are up on last week.

Weakness in the US Currency lead to a general rise in US commodities. Soya beans closed at a 6 month high prices of meal

in the UK are unchanged to slightly weaker helped by a much improved exchange rate. Corn in the US fell as planting intentions suggest a very large crop. Meanwhile world production estimates for soy beans continue to be cut.

Rumours of reduced crushing throughout April & May in Europe will keep Rape & Sun meal short. There are no planned shipments of US maize bi products. The truckers strike the latest facet amongst other technical factors will keep soya meal short until June or July. While demand in spring & early summer is traditionally low, if you are likely need something don’t get caught out..

Agri commodity markets have all traded lower over the last twenty four hours. Dollar strength is a factor for once sterling has strengthened with the greenback so we have seen some benefit. Some futures traders are over bought and rumours persist particularly in Argentina the soya is looking good.
Throw in some beneficial US rain and look at how high we already are! So sell…. a bit …….sorry folks but I think the month will still close out higher.

The bad news is that there is a truck drivers strike and this will cause further delays to shipments of Sunflower & Soya making nearby prices in Europe on Soya meal, Sunflower Exts & by extension Rape meal even tighter.
The good news is that a customer of ours just back from a scholarship tour of Chile, Uruguay & Argentina says that the soya crops in Uruguay & Argentina look fabulous with many farmers he spoke to in Argentina expecting double the yield they were fearing before all of the rain in February up to half a metre! Taking the yields from two to four tonnes a hectare.

Up sharply today, further rises expected.

Our latest prices page has just been updated.

Organic Soya shortage of shipments nearby and forward prices remain firm as container freight rates from Asia rise.

We have Rape meal, Citrus, PK, Wheat Distillers & Soyahulls Available now at competitive prices at various ports across the UK. We are also keen buyers of Feed Barley for March movement in the South of England.

They’ve got so little to do in Brussels that they’ve had time to draw a special organic logo that we are now to use, and to go with it they’ve written new little law to make sure we do.

Our latest prices have just been posted on this site. Soya generally unchanged on the week everything else firmer led by Rape meal, sellers of which are mostly withdrawn until after Easter.

We were sending some Feed Barley into Tilbury this week. The boat is however not coming until March??

Paris Rape up €5 this afternoon.

Rape meal remains tight nearby as do alternatives such as sunflower or distillers. Wheat feed also a tad firmer on asking levels. There may also be a problem with soya supplies as a major loading terminal in Santos has been taken out due to a collision this may cause delays in shipments. All markets are more confident with China assuring it will help the EU

Rape meal collections were hampered further by a breakdown at Erith Mill today. There do seem to be sellers taking advantage of the spot premium, price down £2 from last week.

World wheat stocks at an all-time high.