Straights Direct – Traders Notebook

Corn and wheat finished their sessions higher Tuesday after a technical difficulty brought an unexpected trading halt to several Globex grain and livestock futures and options contracts at 12:38 CDT. Trading in soybeans somehow glided through the problems and closed higher with commercial buyers active again after pulling back last week.

US Midwest: Temperatures should start to moderate over the next days but will remain below normal with light frosts. From Wednesday to Friday, some rains are possible, while the rest of the week is expected to remain dry.
US Southern and Central Plains: The forecast shows some lighter rains on Wednesday and Thursday. On the weekend, a new rain front is moving in from the south which should bring more light rain to the drier southern wheat areas. However, more rainfall is needed to improve soil moisture for winter wheat.

Background News: A total of three vessels have now run aground on the Parana river in Argentina, the first took two weeks to move. The river is a key access point to the leading port of Rosario and the boats are currently blocking both entry and exit. Poor conditions for US wheat, Fund positions, and the continuation of tensions between Russia and the Ukraine have driven the wheat market into a short term bull drive. Russia announced 422KMT of corn was exported in February, a volume 3 times that of the same month last year. There are increasing talks of 2014
being El Nino year in Australia this would lead to below average rainfall and above average temperatures
SOY: The soy market bounced yet again, and moved swiftly higher throughout the week. The supporting factors were uncertain weather during the harvest in Brazil, and lower crush figures than in previous months. The Technical analysis presents a very unclear picture for beans and meal; the markets are supported by key levels on the downside, and on the upside
where new highs cannot be sustained. Soybean oil seems to have had an unforeseen spike which led to a fall off over 3 ¼
cents. The long term view is bearish but without clear signals yet. A USDA quarterly report is out Monday 31st, after which a
clearer picture should be displayed for soy, as well as other grains.Analysts are anticipating US acreage to total 83mln against 76mln last year. Carryout however, should come out lower than 140mln bus with exports so strong.

Chinese Soybean imports have been reported 40% up on year in January-February 2014.

A few showers should fall in Spain, Bulgaria and Romania over the next seven days. Elsewhere, showers should remain limited. However, the current dryness in Germany, western Poland and the Czech Republic should not cause any threat for winter crops, yet.

May corn is up 4 1/2 cents, May soybeans are up 8 cents, and May Chicago wheat is up 7 3/4 cents.

Leading soya buyer China is attempting to resell cargoes set to be exported from South America in April to the US due to decreased demand as an outbreak of bird flu hits poultry stocks.

Over the next five days, more showers are in the forecast in the southern growing areas which should benefit late crop development. In the northern parts, showers are also expected to continue which might slow field works there. The 6-10 day forecast also calls for above-average showers in the northern and central parts, while in the southern growing areas below-average showers are expected.

Argentina: Over the next seven days, the major crop growing areas are expected to remain dry which should benefit harvesting. In the northern parts a few showers are expected. Overall, crop conditions are adequate in the major parts of the country.

The Ukraine Ministry said that the country had shipped 108,500 MT of wheat so far this month, taking the 2013/14 marketing year to date total to just under 7.5 MMT versus 6.2 MMT a year previously. Total grain shipments out of Ukraine are 26.0 MMT, up 38% on a year ago

The wheat market dipped early 19.03.14 trading ,but quickly turned that around in the afternoon closing sharply higher on heavy fund buying – estimated by some to be as much as a net 11,000 contracts in Chicago wheat taking prices up to a 10-month high. Continuing tensions in the Black Sea region featured, but concerns over dryness on the Southern Plains, and also dryness in Germany, eastern Europe, the FSU as well as Australia ahead of the planting season there was the main factor. private estimators put the US wheat area at 57.5 million acres 2 million above the USDA Outlook Forum. US weather refuses to co-operate, with the short-term forecast putting warm, dry and windy weather over western Kansas and Oklahoma along with another round of below-normal temperatures for the US Midwest next week. May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.15 3/4, up 23 1/4 cents; May 14.

Soya beans rose sharply yeserday driven bu funds buying up to 5,000 contracts during the session. In Argentina conjesetion has been caused in Rosario as a ship carrying Soy beans has run aground blocking the exit for 7 other vessels and delaying the loading of a further 54. also rumours abound of a port workers strike.
May 14 Soybeans closed at $14.18 1/4, up 26 1/2 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.95 3/4, up 20 1/2 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $455.80, up $9.20; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 42.27, up 38 points.

Rapeseed on the up in Paris again.
May14 400 +3.25Aug14 363.50 +2.25 Nov 14 +362.75 +2.00 Feb ’15 363.75 +1.50 May ’15 364.00 +1.75

Argentina: For today rains of 30-50 mm are forecast. Afterwards a drier period is expected which should help crop maturation and harvesting. In general, the crops should be in good shape.

Brazil: More rains should fall in southern Brazil in the next few days. In general, crop conditions are adequate there. In the rest of the country only light rains are in the forecast, so harvesting should continue at normal pace.

In central Brazil, soil moisture for second crop corn, late-filling soybeans and late-filling early corn is adequate to surplus at this time.

2014 soybean production estimate revised down to 85.4 mln t

Erith mills prices are a little easier today about a £1 a tonne down. Probably £5 down spot since the top of the market 5/3/14

Corn futures are higher at 6 a.m. CST; soybeans lower; wheat higher.

At least one major northern Chinese port was reported to have stopped discharging beans last week as it was already full to capacity. China is rumoured to be trying to cancel brazilian cargoes & even sell them into the US. Have the BUlls been caught long. They are holding massive speculatives long positions ?

Wheat, corn, and new-crop soybeans all closed higher Tuesday with May K.C. wheat posting its highest close in four months and November soybeans posting their highest close in six months. Concerns about Russia’s presence in Ukraine continue to support corn and wheat prices while dry conditions in the Southern Plains added to the buying interest for wheat.

17 municipalities have declared a state of emergency in Matto Grasso Brazil due to heavy rains.

Crush down 10 mln bu to 1690 mln bu
Exports up 20 mln bu to 1530 mln bu (Export commitment still 106%)
Imports up 5 mln bu to 35 mln bu
Carry out 145 mln (down 5 mln vs Feb report)

Conclusion: US bean S&D not solved.

Grains lower as market awaits USDA reports. Paris Rapeseed 2Euro higher in for old crop. (11.17)

Production problems in the north of the country continue to put pressure on prices in the south. Another rise again today.

Beans closed sharply up 18c on the May position after the USDA’s export sales report showed no reduction in export demand for US soybeans.

Very wet weather throughout February and rains continuing in Argentian have casued fears that soybeans will be damaged by fungal infections.

China cancelled orders for 245,00 tonnes of US Soybeans yesterday. The market had been rising ahaed of today’s USDA figures, but went into reverse on this news

Russia has eased the tension by returning troops to base so, markets have eased, but soy bean stocks in the U.S remain historically tight. There is no way in for the Bears.

We don’t like what he is doing to the Ukraine. Our feed customers are scrambling for cover. Our growers however welcome a turnaround for cereals 30 cents up in Chicago 03/03/14. So let’s hear it again.
Ra Ra AssPutin..!

Grain Markets have reacted in a knee jerk bullish manner as Ukrainian crisis deepens. Whilst financial markets have fallen essential commodities have risen.

Spot Rape has leapt to over £250 for spot material, fixings have tightened through February and March.

Demand for Organic commodities has increased since the new year.

Dry weather in Brazil it is believed that announcements of damage to the crop are imminent and will reduce current record harvest predications

Certainly feels like we are at the start of a bullish trend on most of these markets but I wonder if we will see some profitaking today. If so should you jump in I would say yes especially if you have ant gaps in cover nearby.

Good trade both nearby and forward today. Market is Strengthening daily. Possible sell of tomorrow but that would probably just be profit taking. Fundamentals and seasonal trend suggest more upward than downward potential.

Trident have issued new Sugar Beet Prices. They only have Supaflow in bulk and Supabeet in bags. They warn that there is only a limited quantity it will be first come first served. So if you are a devotee better get in touch PDQ. Delivery period now until September 14th. For prices see our latest prices page

Soyameal has leapt up again this evening $11.00 on the first position. Paris Rapeseed also up Euro 7.25 to 4.75 in Feb 15. Suddenly things are looking markedly firmmer.

One of our shipper suppliers just increased there jnearby soya prices by an additional £3.00 per tonne on the day. There are shipping delays developing in South America and slow movement due to low river levels in the Mississippi, this will impact on us through to early May quite probably.

The session yesterday started with s $10 increase in Soyameal soya beans& Corn were also firm, later Wheat joined in as the early leaders manged to hold on to impressive gains. The market remains at or near a technical low and bounces like this remain typical.

After the open Chicago meal was $6 down but rallied quickly to close $2.30 nearby to 0.00 to $1 higher. In the end a bit of profit taking, but we need to decisively breakthrough this “floor” or it will start to look more and more like a good old fashioned buying opportunity. DIP

The plummeting Argentiane Peso and developing financial crisis will probably cause farmers there to hang on the their crops for as long as possible and thus slow the flow of exports and the crush rate post harvest.

The analyst Safras estimates Brazil’s 2014 soybean harvest now at 91.8 mln t which is above the previous forecast of 90.9 mln t and the 82.1 mln t produced in 2013.
(Reuters, January 27, 2014)

We are able to source, fully sealed 20Mt containers of Cert ID Non GM certified Indian soymeal for delivery to UK Farmers

US Midwest: Cold weather is expected to return with temperatures falling down to -25 °C. Snow cover remains limited across the southern growing region, so that the cold weather could harm crops there snow cover should protect crops from winterkill. US Central and Southern Plains: Snow cover also limited all across the Wheat Belt and dry weather is also forecast over the next seven days. However, temperatures should not drop below -20 °C, so that no winterkill is expected to occur.

Chicago is broadly unchanged since tuesday’s big fall. The Pound now trading at over $1.66 should help ease prices again today.

The Bristish pound is stronger against the Euor and the dollar today this might be a shortlived buying opportunity

Soybeans and wheat both closed higher on Monday, helped by bullish export inspections data in this week’s USDA report and fresh announcements of a soybean sale to unknown destinations and a wheat sale to Egypt. In addition, lighter-than-expected rain in Argentina over the weekend helped to prompt commercial buying in soybeans and helped corn prices finish modestly higher.

Yesterday saw a $13.90 fall on the Jan 14 position but only a $1.50 reduction on more forward positions. Apparently pressure is coming from the increasingly large South America crop that is expected.

Chicago soya lost 1% of its value yesterday, as fears of reduced Chinese buying & contract cancellations, pressured the market adding to worries about the effect of a potentially huge South American crop.

US Ag Markets fell yesterday after a modly bearish USDA report. beans fell 5 to 8.4 cents Wheat 11.6 to 6.4 cents. Overnight trading has seen a modest recovery.

Soya Hulls have risen by £8.00 per tonne in the last 48 hours. This filler indicates increased compound production and general feed usage.

Unseasonal rains in Western Australia and frost on the country’s east coast have hit wheat crops in the world’s No. 2 exporter of wheat, dragging down quality and reducing yields.

ChicagoJan 14 Soybeans closed at $13.29 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents. Strong forward sales of meal by Chinese crushers lead the market to the conclusion demand for US beans from China will reamin strong. So no news really!

Commercial buying pushed January soybeans higher with help from USDA’s bullish export sales figures and new highs in palm oil pointing to production problems in Malaysia and Indonesia. December corn also closed higher with winter weather interrupting the final stages of corn harvest.

January soybeans and December corn ended slightly lower on light volume as rain and snow are expected to interrupt harvest activity on Thursday and Friday. Beans were down 2.5 cents Meal was down $1.90

December corn is down 1 1/2 cents, January soybeans are up 1/4 cent, and December Chicago wheat is down 1 cent.

Soybean futures on the CBOT fell yesterday on chart-based selling and favourable prospects for soybean crops in South America.

Soya meal is down by about $10.00 despite good export figures. Buy the rumour then sell the fact seems to be playing a part. In the UK this see levesl at up £7.00 lower than yestrday.

Yesterday’s Chicago session saw Soya rally strongly leaving corn and wheat in it’s wake. Over night and early trade today has seen a general rallyahead of expected export figures.

Reuters) – European Union member states agreed to impose punitive duties on biodiesel imported from Argentina and Indonesia, which are accused of selling it into the bloc at unfairly low prices.

This should mean increased Rape oil & meal production within the EU. Theorectically higher seed and oil prices lower meal prices.

Rapeseed prices in Europe are slightly lower today meal is mixed, CBOT soymeal was firmer last night but is weaker in overnight The trade is offering little in the way of direction as markets drift.

As if learning from the power companys.ADM declared they are nearly sold out of Rape meal for October and put their prices up £5. My broker accused them of ‘Guilding the Lily’ and they may be but I suspect that between ongoing production problems and the underlying demand there still is, they might not be exageratting too much.

Soy bean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell yesterday evening on hedge-related selling as pressure came from the ongoing harvest and spill-over weakness from soya meal.

Soybean futures on the Chicago board of trade closed higher yesterday evening on talk that China has been buying US soybeans in recent days as the market touched a near-two month low at 1261.75, and on concerns that rains this week could slow US harvest progress

The weather forecast calls for a drier conditions in the Midwest to continue this week. This should help improve conditions for the delayed harvest.

Initially the FSA figures lifted the Grains taking beans up 16 3/4 cents. Corn 10 1/4 cent 6 3/4 cents per bushel.

USDA report bullish especially for Soya and we bounce back to recent highs. So why the big sell off earlier this week? The computers got it wrong or are they just following the programming? Market always squares up before a report. After all if you don’t go down it is hard to make money if the only place you are going back to is where you already are. Manipulation perish the thought.

The whole US grain complex is on on the wrong side of nothing but only just as we await the USDA. They can be as predictable as Edgar Allan Poe. 22.55 hours sleep tight.

At last much needed rain is expected in the US and Canadian Prairie especially south. This may help the bearish trend and perhaps take the sting out of tomorrows USDA supply and demand report.

Our new price list is being updated into lastest prices.
Some large downwards movements this week.Let us see what the USDA WADE figures on the 12th can do to spoil that. 😉

Go figure the world corn harvest production estimates are shrinking, but are still on target for a record. Hard to get too bullish based on that info.

I am sure both the electronic and day trade on the CBOT was higher for beans when I looked earlier. I even accepted can offer to buy a load at this mornings list price as a result. Now it looks that beans will close lower and meal only up by $4 nearby and a mere $2 up to 50c lower in some forward positions. Not closed yet!

Conditions in the U S MidWest are likely to continue to cause stress to Corn & Soy bean plants for a further three days. Wheat is benefiting as harvest conditions are perfect.

forecasts for German wheat and rapeseed production, have been reduced although they still come in up on a year ago. Wheat is now for a crop of 24.18 MMT down from 24.24 MMT d in the last July estimate, output was 22.33 MMT last year. For Rapeseed estimates are at 5.83 MMT , 6.04 MMT in July with 4.82 MMT last year. Quality is still good this year.

The possibility of some limited rain in the Mid West has allowed overnight markets to fall. Beans rallied towards the end of the electronic session and so today’s open outcry session my take things higher or just repeat the cycle.

Grain markets have pushed aside yesterdays falls Chicago stronger across the whole complex. UK Rapemeal up £5 per tonne.

Dec corn fell Tuesday after Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour pegged South Dakota’s corn yield at 162 bushels per acre, up from USDA’s estimate of 138 bushels. More inspections are due later in the week they may prove more revealing. November soy beans also dropped but not by as much as the uplift onMonday 19th as concerns remain about dry conditions throughout the Midwest with 72% of soy beans setting pods, up from 58% a week ago. Wheat prices finished lower with heaving selling on the close.

November soy beans closed higher Monday with a lack of rain in the ten-day forecast. December corn and wheat also finished higher with warmer temperatures in the Midwest on Monday and Tuesday.

Prevented acres beans are 1.6 million against ten year average of 780,000. Corn 3.4 million against average 1.1 million. Further reviews may bring these figures down but that is for the future, for now it can only add to an increasingly bullish sentiment.

Despite below normal temperatures little moisture is forecast for the Mid West US. This is continuing to hamper crop development.

For the fourth consecutive Chicago Soya closed higher for both beans and meal, they were joined by Corn. Exports are leading to increasingly tight supplies.

November soybeans closed higher Wednesday, the third consecutive gain after Monday’s USDA report. The market is slightly firmer so far today in overnight trading. Warmer conditions are forecast. This is good in some areas but moisture deficiency remains in the Key states of Illinois & Ohio.

USDA shocked yesterday with lower yields for corn and Soya and lower ending stocks. Suddenly drought is back on the scene with insufficient rain over the last 45 days for Iowa and IIlinois two key soya growing states.

August’s WASDE has surprised us before. Here are some trade predictions.
Some average trade estimates for the WASDE today;
Bean production 3.357bn/bu versus 3.420 bn/bu last report,
Bean yield 43.7bpa versus 44.5bpa previously,
And finally, old crop carry out of 123m/bu which is 2m/bu lower than the July WASDE.

The August position is now being offered at the same level as September & October down £4.00. November April is up £3 from yesterdays traded levels and is now only one pound a tonne lower than the August October. Traditionally the early season Rape meal positions trade at a discount to the Winter, we may be returning to that pattern.

Old crop Aug 13 closed at the lowest level for a front month since March 2012, whilst new crop Nov 13 beans finished at a 14 month low. The US weather outlook remains benign, talk of cool and damp conditions for the next two weeks followed by warmer and drier from the middle of August onwards is adopting an almost ideal look.

Despite early buying from profit takers trying to close the week and take their money, weather factors weighed on the market and bears ruled as the market was forced to drop significantly. Soya and Corn were weak wheat held up slightly better.

Weather patterns in the US remain mainly benign and conditions are considered good for pollination.

Rape meal has staged a come back today after a prolonged fall and increased buying interest.

Following good rains across the Mid West which is considered a boost for the Soya Yield, the 5 day forecast is for drier conditions. This has helped corn and wheat prices to recover but effects the more drought resistant Soya less which fell yesterday on the Chicago Market.

Rape meal trading at £189.00 delivered farm south east England in the November 13to Apri  14 position. Rape meal is dropping back into the buy zone, the question is with harvest just about to start can we expect more.

The US weather is warming up, and the late planted soy bean crop is consequently lagging in development with only 10% of the crop at the flowering stage versus 24% normally at this time. Causing concerns that too Soymeal up by nearly $10.00 in some positions. This had a knock on effect on EU Rape meal prices.

Heat building in the Mid West but as with Western Europe this is not entirely bad at this stage. Hotter in the Ukraine with continued dryness in Kazakhstan. Good rains in India & China but under average in Western Australia.

Grains closed higher Monday with help from USDA’s announcements that China bought U.S. wheat and soy beans and Mexico bought U.S. corn.

The USDA released their latest crop progress report yesterday. Soya beans were estimated at 96% planted (versus 92% last week and 98% 5 year average), conditions were 67% good excellent (versus 65% last week and 45% last year). The biggest advances in bean plantings were seen in the double cropped states, with Georgia up 13% and Missouri up 9%. Corn conditions were announced at 67% good excellent (versus 65% last week and 48% last year).

The trade now waits on today’s USDA reports. The trade estimate for US Jun 1st soybean stocks is anywhere from 413 million to 500 million bushels, with an average guess of 442 million. The US soybean planted area is seen falling within a range of 77.1-79.2 million acres, with an average guess of 77.9 million, up from the current estimate of 77.1 million.