Straights Direct – Traders Notebook

No new bookings until the 2nd March

Brewers grains are in tight supply – we have traded some into Cheshire @ £46.00 today.

No new fixings available until the 27th Feb. Prices have moved up sharply due to high demand.

Here is an example of the historic price graphs now available on our prices page.

This weeks price update now available go to latest prices.

Schmallenberg virus, the midge born disease, that causes birth defects in sheep & cattle, may have spread further into the UK than early indications suggested. It has been identified on a cattle farm in West Sussex.

The next available collection slot for Rapeseed meal is now not until the 20th February.

Just had our Organic Food Federation inspection. All went well.

Maize Gluten is currently not quoted out of Avonmouth. Liverpool is only quoted through to the end of April 2012.

ADM are no longer sellers of February. March is now quoted at £181.50 (delivered farm).

Here is a comparison between the cost per unit of protein of Hi Pro Soya (Red) and Rape (Green).

We have updated our prices page to include some historic prices (more to come in time). Just press the name of the commodity and up will pop a graph.

Not much interest about today. At present markets looking unexciting. Wheat down £2 in London. but there is some green on the screen in Chicago. Local trade some soyahulls on the move. If you are near Liverpool you might be able to take advantage of some resale offers allowing £6 for a short haul should be on farm for £142.00. Trading nearer £150.00 delivered in the south.
Still got some barley on offer S.E would like to find a home.

Early indications show Soya meal in the UK as unchanged from
yesterday.

Wheat closed 11.4c to 2c down. Soyameal $1.1 to $3 up.
Overnight markets broadly unchanged. (08.17GMT)

In the end there was only a marginal retracement in Europe on all grains. The US has soya trading $2-$4.50 higher. With Sterling presently over $1.58 this is probably within the bounds of currencey balancing at the moment.However it does indicate there is still very little appetite on the downside the bears remain hungry! Posted 19.53GMT

Oil world have cut their estimate of the Argentinian Soy crop by 2MMT to46.5MMT a similair reduction for Brazil takes their crop estimate to 70 MMT. We have seen estimates recently as low as 40MMT for the Argentine crop.

Showers yesterday in Argentina were disappointing, mainly missing the main crop areas. A new round of showers looks to develop during the coming weekend in key corn and soybean areas. Rainfall will help improve conditions for later-planted crops. Lower temperatures are expected.

There is a shortage of Organic Soya in the UK at present. We have only been able to find a couple of loads that are available for sale in February further supplies avialable in March. Don’t get caught out!

Up between £4 and £5 per tonne depending on position.

We are told they have gone into administration today.

London Wheat is up £4.35 per tonne this morning

Soy contracts hit new session highs just before the bell, with wheat and corn also gaining strongly. Support from generally adverse world weather conditions more than offset the effects of a rally in the U.S. dollar index.

It is called a spring rally & on average it happens 5 years out of 7 but consistently over the longer cycle. It normally starts before  Christmas and as senior traders holiday due to existence of this average juniors are discouraged from being short!

Certainly weather scares have been supportive the latest being the cold weather in Europe, but bearish factors have largely been over looked or just plain ignored. Even the worst case scenarios of crop loss in South America hardly justify the recent rises especially in wheat. Is this partly a correction, certainly there has been short covering probably explains the apparent over reaction & demonstrates that not everyone saw this coming.

We have seen the market fall as decent percipitation occurs with more forecast for Argentina,but the hot stuff just moved north into Southern Brazil to effect crops there. Meanwhile cold weather in Eastern Europe is the danger, with Winter Wheat & Rapeseed threatened by Winterkill as far west as Germany unless there is sufficient snow cover. Markets also feel more positive about Euro situation, throw in a slightly weaker dollar & Chicago markets are off to a strong start.

One of our customers asked us to produce a graph of Soya Hulls price movements over the last month.

They love turnaround tuesday the overnight markets have moved steadily up now 09.00 GMT at $2.90 up on Soyameal.

Overnight markets fight back $2 after $9.00 Chicago fall on Soya meal. Buying opportunity?

Market looked set to weaken today and Chicago did not dissappoint. $7 down.
Spot trades was all we could pick up today. The market relaxation might bring forward Rape meal back into the sub £150.00 target zone in the south at least!

Just traded November 12 to April 13 Rape meal at £155.00 delivered home counties tipped full loads. Market so strong I don’t think we can get any more!

Cropcast came out with one of the most pessimistic crop estimates yet, putting the Argy soy bean crop at 45 MMT – 5.5 MMT lower than the USDA.

The Russian & Argentinian governments were keen to deny rumours that they were considering an export ban for cereals, but London Futures Wheat up £1.65 in the May 12 position.

Reports of a flurry of consumer buying yesterday in Europe & the UK has led to asking levels of £4.00 up on August 12 to April 13
positions.

London wheat closed £4 up yesterday.Yesterday’s rains in Argentina were a bit disappointing, but subsequent overnight rain and more in the forecast for tomorrow should improve the outlook for soybeans at least.

Soya beans may well test technical resistance today at $12.15 per bushel. London Grain is up even though sterling & the Euro have risen against the dollar. Premiums in South Am still remain firm, rains over the weekend were considered inadequate although more is forecast.

We saw soyameal nearly $3 firmer yesterday in Chicago but overnight has clawed back $1.7 of that rise. With sterling just under $1.55 we may see prices unchanged to £2 up but I was surprised yesterday by the hike in premiums. Wheat closed up yesterday despite some very bearish crop forecasts.

South American premiums have risen sharply today. Despite new rain in Argentina & southern Brazil, fears about just how much damage has been done are making sellers at origin reluctant to follow any falls in the US market. UK soy prices are up £6.50 in some ports. Rapemeal also firmer.

Despite a lower dollar, US Grain markets closed mainly lower, soya was mixed and the pattern has been repeated on overnight trading.

We traded August to April Rapemeal today at sub £150.00 delivered into the West country. Thats equivalent to £144.00 into the Home Counties hopefully it will still be possible on the 19th. Email for a quote or give us a ring.

Latest on farm UK straights prices just updated.

We have non assured Barley available in the South East & non assured wheat available south west. Any takers?

Sharp reversal in Soya & Grain markets overnight. Weather concerns in Argentina wiped out all of Fridays falls. Well done our buyer in Sussex yesterday. In at the bottom?

Some rain in Southern Brazil especially Parana state is very welcome but dry weather forecast to return to Argentina. This could re establish a weather market very quickly. With world ending stocks virtually unchangedby the USDA at what are still very tight levels & the possibility that the USDA could not factor in recent South American yield reductions. Fundamentals remain the same with still plently of upward potential.

We start off this morning with some signs of stability following yesterdays worldwide sell off.

Take a look at our market news page for todays report.

World wheat stocks are upgraded to their second-highest ever.

The USDA report just out look bearish to us. We will know what the rest of the market think when CBOT opens in an hour.

We are updating this part of the website