Straights Direct – Traders Notebook

Hedge funds increase their short positions in U.S Ag Commodities

Grain futures extended losses after much-watched crop report hiked its estimate for wheat inventories to a clear record, and lifted much-watched forecasts for corn and soy stocks in the US too.

All three grains closed lower Monday with a new contract low seen in March K.C. wheat. Favourable crop conditions in South America along with expectations that USDA will increase ending stocks estimates in Tuesday’s report kept potential buyers uninterested again.

Improvement in £/$ exchange leaves U.K Soya meal down £1 but Rape meal unchanged.

Wheat futures proved particularly weak in 2015, falling 20% in Chicago. Futures in rival grain corn fell by a more modest 14.5%.

Wheat’s underperformance reflected particular growth in world stocks, seen by the US Department of Agriculture as ending 2015-16 at a record 229.9m tonnes, after a series of strong harvests in major producing countries – including exporters such as the European Union and Russia.
Indeed, competition among exporters has been intense, driving prices lower and leaving the US, saddled with the burden of a strong dollar, looking at its lowest wheat shipments in some 40 years.

U.K Rape meal January +£4 February/April +£1 May/July +£3 August /October +£2.
Soya meal has firmed for the last few days and U.K prices are also affected by Sterling weakness With a shortage of E.U seed upward soya meal gives room for Rape to follow.

All three grains closed a little higher Tuesday with the biggest gain seen in K.C. wheat. However, Tuesday’s rebound paled in comparison to Monday’s sell-off as grains remain under bearish pressure from the rising U.S. dollar and rain in Brazil.With Sterling weaker and Chicago markets firmer U.K prices will be higher. Paris Rapeseed was also firm and with alternative proteins also up there will be room for an increase in Rape meal today should crushers wish to take advantage.

Hedge funds bet on further declines in ags in 2016, even after a year termed by the Bcom as the “most destructive crash in a generation” for commodities as a whole, helped by 19% losses for grain and livestock bulls.

Managed money, a proxy for speculators, undertook a hefty selldown in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities in the week to December 29, to return to a net short position which has been unusual by historical standards, analysis of regulatory data overnight reveals.

European markets are of to a positive start this morning Corn & Wheat up 50 to 75 cents and Rapeseed up two Euro’s. This maybe reflective of alterations in exchange rates against a strong dollar

Rather than turning around, the sell-off in grains picked up speed with contracts falling to new lows shortly before the close. Pressure was seen across the board as an early attempt at rallying failed to generate enthusiasm.U.K Rapemeal has strengthened again.

Grains took a back seat to outside markets Monday, with large moves seen in gold, natural gas, and cattle (both live and feeders). Grains were under pressure throughout the day in quiet trade.

All three grains closed higher Thursday thanks to a surprising sell-off in the U.S. dollar index after the European Central Bank announced a less aggressive plan of monetary easing than was expected. Wheat prices especially benefited as non-commercial bears were caught off guard by Thursday’s bullish news for grains.

With Thanksgiving yesterday obviously there is no input from the U.S markets. European markets are also quiet with London Wheat unchanged so far and Paris wheat down 25 cents Rapeseed lower by 50 cents for nearby positions but higher by the same amount in November 2016.With the US markets taking a breather yesterday’s focus was on the Eurozone and China. Chinese equities tumbled earlier this morning as some of the largest brokerages disclosed regulatory probes. The Shanghai composite has extended losses to over 5% on the news. Looking forward to today, the highlight will be the second estimate of GDP for Q3 and the expenditure breakdown for the UK. Eyes will also be on Black Friday, as this has proven to be a good indication of consumer confidence in the US.

Markets are very quiet again today but with northern hemisphere harvests just about over, statistics on demand are taking on extra importance.

All three grains finished higher Wednesday with quiet trading holding prices in narrow ranges. In the aftermath of Tuesday’s USDA-inspired losses, all three grains were able to successfully attract the interest of commercial buyers.
As with levels in the U.S. U.K and European prices and exchange rates remain trading within a very tight band. True that over the last month the trend remains downwards for Agricultural Feed Commodities. This tendency for the market to tread water for days at time can indicate a decreasing lack of confidence in continual fall. An oversupply of all commodities produced to meet exponential growth in China & other fast developing nations, does and will continue to weigh on the market,but at this time of year we often see a rapid pick up into northern hemisphere demand. This can catch shippers and producers out. One minute they are looking at empty order books and low stocks due to reducied shipping on a falling market,the next they are outpaced by last minute spot buying. Add to this situation storm delays to shipments and icing rivers and quickly you have a very tight spot market in U.K and European ports.

US officials foresee the Brazil’s soybean harvest falling short of estimates from many other analysts, amid debate over the benefit from recent rains

US ethanol production soared last week at their fastest in five months, defying low margins identified by sector giant Archer Daniels Midland – and with the potential for further increases to come.

US ethanol producers, which use corn as their major feedstock, manufactured the biofuel at a rate of 969,000 barrels a day last week, Energy Information Administration said.

That represented the fastest pace of output in three months, and an increase of 25,000 barrels a day, or 2.6%, on production the previous week, and well ahead of market expectations.

“We had expected a rise of 1-2%,” said Jerrod Kitt, analyst at Linn Group, while rival Chicago broker Futures International forecast a drop of some 4,000 barrels a day.

All three grains closed higher Tuesday, taking back part of Monday’s losses with help from commercial buyers in the face of a higher U.S. dollar index and higher crop estimates from Informa.Soyameal was in fact lower and Sterling managed to outpace a rising dollar so U.K prices should not be that affected today. U.S. harvest weather remains excellent.

Dryness in Russia and the Ukraine caused commercials to buy Wheat yesterday in Chicago aided by a fall in the dollar wheat closed 9 cents per bushel higher in the December 2015 position.This helped corn however Rain in Brazil pinned back Soya beans however Soya meal managed to close modestly higher but has continued in that direction overnight. I would think U.K Soya prices will be unchanged as sterling is trading over £1.53 again but might be slightly firmer nearby. London Wheat was up £0.65 yesterday and may follow Chicago higher on the open this morning.

Yesterday Chicago Soya meal closed $4.8 to $3.1 lower, soybeans were 9.6 cents to 4.2 cents per bushel lower, Wheat & Corn also fell but to a lesser extent. Markets have risen slightly so far today and Soya meal is £2.00 lower in the U.K today with Rape meal listed as unchanged.

Soybeans finished yesterday higher while corn was lower, a mild response to Monday’s opposite directions for both. Except for two days of rain in the eastern Midwest, row crop harvest is going well and is not far from being done. In the U.K the rise in Chicago & the drop off in the value of Sterling as news came in that the economy is slowing and manufacturing is slipping back into recession sent Soya meal price £2.00 higher

Argentina backed ideas of a sharp drop in corn sowing, despite foreseeing a late-year rush in planting, as it cautioned over quality in early-harvested wheat.

The country’s farm ministry, in its first estimate for domestic corn sowings for 2015-16, pegged plantings at 5.30m hectares, down 700,000 hectares year on year.

The drop in sowings to what would be a four-year low will be led by a decline in corn aimed at “commercial” use, rather than for silage or livestock consumption, the ministry said.

It also said that sowing had so far enjoyed “good” soil moisture conditions, but unfavourable temperatures.

Despite ‘whopping’ export sales, a sharp jump in the greenback saps soybean prices, along with most ags, but sugar prices surge

All three grains closed higher Wednesday, helped by commercial buyers responding to this week’s low prices and unexpected news that China bought soyabean oil from the U.S. A risk of flooding in the Southern Plains the next few days is keeping short sellers nervous in wheat.

Brazilian Soya growers can live with low prices, the Chicago market could hit an 8 year low & they would still be in profit. Officials say. In the Ukraine a dry Summer is feared likely to impact on the Autumn Harvest especially Corn

Tuesday the 13th proved to be lucky for grain producers. At least this one was with solid gains seen in soybeans and wheat while corn followed along behind. Soyameal was up $11.4 on the October 15 position with a rise of $5.7 recorded for the December 20167 slot. These rises will more than outweigh a slight improvement in Sterling against the dollar.

Goldman Sachs forecast that commodities overall will fall by some 10% over the next year, raising doubts over recent recoveries of many raw materials, such as metals and energy.

Soya meal and Rapeseed meal have both firmed over the last 24 hours. Rape on a slight increase in demand and Soya on a smaller than expected US harvest.

There was some volatility about in ag markets early on Friday, but it had yet to filter through to US futures, with a big US Department of Agriculture report due later

Low demand is still putting pressure on spot Rape prices.
Now could be the time to squeeze in a cheap load between contracted loads.Soya and Soya Hull prices remain flat. Demand for sugarbeet is picking up. Organics are remaining pretty static.

In the States they are getting excited about a turn-around in soft commodity prices. However the rises they have are only due to a weaker Dollar. To the rest of the world prices are still fairly static.

Cargill have withdrawn from FEMAS at the Brocklebank Crush site in Liverpool. All other Cargill UK sites remain certified.

November soybeans closed lower Thursday with ongoing harvest pressure quickly erasing Wednesday’s benefit of a bullish stocks report from USDA. Corn and wheat finished higher, helped by a lower U.S. dollar and commercial buying in wheat with concerns about conditions in Australia.

Sugar prices rose today. The October raw sugar contract surged 4.2% in New York, on its last day of trading, at 12.25 cents a pound in midday deals.

Palm expeller prices spiked overnight in the Origin as Shippers competed for cargo to fill loading vessels.
Prices were paid up to $ 98 FOB, this up from $ 68 in August and only $ 78 little more than a week ago.
Price spike makes little sense as NZ demand is reducing as Summer grass becomes more available.

If you didn’t see the drop in commodity prices coming.

The IGC, in its first comments on EU rapeseed prospects for next year, sees Polish sowing falling. And Ukraine area could slump nearly 40%

All three grains closed lower Tuesday, along with the stock market and most other commodities, as investors continue to show concern about the larger economic picture. Favourable weather for harvest is also keeping grain prices under pressure.

Soybean fall after the US ups the condition rating for the domestic crop, while hopes for swift harvesting dent corn. Commerzbank cuts wheat price forecasts, but to levels above the futures curve – and is upbeat on corn

No Chicago trade yesterday due to Labour day, eCBOT is higher this morning but only by $1 to $2 not enough to offset the improvement in Sterling.U.K Rape meal prices are lower as poor off take increases the near term discount.Soya is also lower as sterling improves.

Changes for 15/16MY in main Production countries:

European Union DOWN by -972 (-6.76%) thd. mt to 13,398 thd. mt
China DOWN by -530 (-4.60%) thd. mt to 10,975 thd. mt
Canada DOWN by -255 (-6.24%) thd. mt to 3,830 thd. mt
India UP by +59 (+1.61%) thd. mt to 3,719 thd. mt

Just sold French Sugar at £390 delivered

Yesterday afternoon we could take advantage of a drop in Soya meal prices but the window as brief this morning Sterling is weaker against the dollar and eCBOT has reversed much of yesterday’s fall.

Corn and soybeans fell lower Tuesday, pressured by more bearish economic news from China and expectations for large U.S. harvests ahead. December Chicago wheat ended a little higher with help from Tuesday’s lower U.S. dollar index.

Soya falls on more bad news on the Chinese economy

The recent fall in crude oil prices are putting oilseeds under pressure

Wheat Gluten shipment arrives in southern UK. Depending on how close to the port you are prices range from £146.00/t.

Down £8 over the last week.

Unrest in Brazil may lead to strikes including ports.

21% less than last season at 1.73 MMT versus 2.2 MMT in 2014.

All three grains posted double-digit gains Monday with corn contracts showing the biggest percentage jumps. the seven-day forecast expects mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt with hot temperatures in the Southern Plains stressing crops.

After quite a prolonged drifting off in prices the last three Chicago sessions have closed with Soyameal higher. This hardly a trend yet but December corn and November soybeans closed higher Thursday, helped by commercial buyers going after this week’s lower prices and the market’s persistent demand for soy bean meal.

Sterling has performed well and with the U.K supply side improving we have seen marked reductions in both Rapemeal & Soyamael

Wheatfeed has esaed off a little on the forward market probably as areflection of its’ nearby weakness

With an almost $20 increase in Soyameal & 30cents per bushel Corn & 34 cents Wheat yesterday we can safely predict U.K prices will be higher today. Watch our latest prices page as prices update as they come in.All three grains closed sharply higher, ending the month of June on a bullish note after USDA said corn and soybean supplies were less than expected on June 1. Wheat also closed higher in sympathy with row crops, even after USDA said 2014-15 ended with 753 million bushels, more than expected.

Hopes for US corn yields this year took a knock after heavy rains prompted a bigger-than-expected drop in the condition rating, with expectations for soybean productivity eroding too.

The US Department of Agriculture overnight, in a weekly crop report, cut by 3 points to 68% its rating of the proportion of domestic corn in “good” or “excellent” condition, reflecting Midwest inundations blamed for everything from preventing fieldwork to encouraging mosquito outbreaks .

The downgrade, which was 1 point larger than investors had expected, expanded the gap between the 2015 crop and last year’s, which was rated at 75% good or excellent in late June, and ended up showing a record yield of 171.0 bushels per acre.

ADM’s mill in Erith will be closed for annual maintenance between the 6th and the 20th July.

US soybeans closed sharply higher again yesterday after another round of short-covering by funds, sparked by increasing concerns about planting delays in the US Midwest.

Moderate to heavy rain working from eastern Texas through the Ohio Valley are expected to continue at least until Friday, hurting winter wheat harvest and taking corn and soy bean acres out of production.

UK Rape meal remains extremely tight & Soya has benefited from weakness in the dollar and has eased a pound or two. Most other commodities are unchanged on the lists but may be biddable.

U.K Rape meal is up a hefty £8.00 per tonne on the old crop positions today.

Early indications suggest that May/July Rape meal is up by £3.00 with August/April 2016 down £1.00. It appears that there is ongoing nearby demand with little cover taken and seed is getting harder to come by. Soya meal is easier by £2.00 on average.

U.K sees both Rape meal and Soya higher following the fall our off against the dollar and despite a slight fall in the Chicago Market.

The U.K currency has fallen back against the dollar and the Euro during the course of the day. With U.K entering deflation there is little or no chance of an interest rate rise. This invalidates all the prices will review tomorrow.

U.K Rape meal £2.00 higher in all positions today.

Nearby positions & spot premiums have soared today for Soya meal in the U.K. There maybe problems in the supply pipeline. Prices up £7.00 per tonne in places.

Spot premiums are eroding on Soya helped by a strong pound this could be the time for some cover.

Soya prices have plummeted overnight.

We have a few loads to clear – call for a competitive price.

The price of Soya is lower today on the back of higher ending stocks in the US.

A lot of farm interest in forward and spot Rape today.

Yesterday afternoon 3,500 tonnes of June – April Hi Pro was bought by UK traders in the southern half of the country.

Despite grain prices being low wheatfeed prices are still a premium.

All three grains closed lower Thursday with scattered showers throughout the western Plains and more in the five-day forecast for much of the central U.S. Thursday will conclude the three-day Kansas Wheat Tour with better yields being seen on the eastern side of the state. Did we mention joy total complete and relief, OMG it is unbelievable but the Tories won ! Did not see that one coming if you have been relying for your news on the BBC.

The July contract for all three wheats posted new contract lows Monday, pressured by beneficial rains over the worst drought areas of the southwestern Plains. July corn was also lower with expectations for better planting weather this week while soybeans hung on to a modest gain.An improvement in Sterling my induce some lower pricing in the U.K today?

Soyameal in the U.K is unchanged on nearby positions and £3.00 lower further forward. Rapemeal is a little lower in some areas but broadly unchanged.

Rapemeal in the UK has edged up a further pound today.

Rain in the forecast for the southwestern Plains kept bearish pressure on wheat prices for a third consecutive day, taking the K.C. and Minneapolis contracts to new contract lows. Soybeans and corn closed higher with help from a larger-than-expected crush total for March and an unexpected rebound in crude oil prices.

May corn and wheat closed sharply lower Tuesday after USDA estimated more corn acres and stocks than expected. May soybeans were able to finish higher with help from a lower-than-expected planting estimate of 84.6 million acres and slightly less stocks than expected. UK Rape meal prices are a little firmer today. Spot Hi Pro Soya is also tighter and has increased in premium above later positions.

May Chicago Soya meal closed a couple of bucks higher on Friday and is off to a positive start today. Despite this rise the prices are still lower than this time last week. However this masks the strength of the US dollar against the Euro & Sterling. The US currencies strong performance is normally offset by a fall in dollar based commodities to compensate we have not seen this and so their may be more bullish sentiment than appears. UK Rapemeal prices are unchanged to lower in places and broadly all other commodities are unchanged on the week. in the UK. Quality issues have led to a shortage of Organic Sunflower.

March:May Chicago soyameal closed a couple of buks higher on Friday and is off to a positive start today. Despite this rise the prices are still lower than this time last week. However this masks the strength of the US dollar against the Euro & Sterling. The US currencies strong performance is normally oofset by a fall in dollar based commodities to compensate we have not seen this and so their may be more bullish sentiment than appears. UK Rapemeal prices are unchanged to lower in places and broadly all other commodities are unchanged on the week in the UK. Quality issues have led to a shortage of Organic Sunflower.

May Chicago soyameal closed a couple of buks higher on Friday and is off to a positive start today. Despite this rise the prices are still lower than this time last week. However this masks the strength of the US dollar against the Euro & Sterling. The US currencies strong performance is normally oofset by a fall in dollar based commodities to compensate we have not seen this and so their may be more bullish sentiment than appears. UK Rapemeal prices are unchanged to lower in places and broadly all other commodities are unchanged on the week in the UK. Quality issues have led to a shortage of Organic Sunflower.

May Chicago soyameal closed a couple of buks higher on Friday and is off to a positive start today. Despite this rise the prices are still lower than this time last week. However this masks the strength of the US dollar against the Euro & Sterling. The US currencies strong performance is normally oofset by a fall in dollar based commodities to compensate we have not seen this and so their may be more bullish sentiment than appears. UK Rapemeal prices are unchanged to lower in places and broadly all other commodities are unchanged on the week in the UK. Quality issues have led to a shortage of Organic Sunflower.

August to April 2016 Rapemeal trading onto farm in South East England at circa £185.00.

May Chicago wheat posted a new contract low Thursday, pressured by another week of disappointing exports and rising U.S. dollar. Soybeans were lower for a fourth consecutive day as Brazil’s harvest advances and corn ended a little higher, helped by bullish export news. e CBOT up 40 cents to a dollar so far today.

All three grains closed lower Wednesday as the market’s focus turned back to favorable growing conditions in South America and the anticipation of large row crop harvests ahead. Wheat prices closed lower after a mix of snow and rain helped moisture levels across the southern U.S.Sterling is holding it’s ground against the Euro, but is weaker compared to the U.S Dollar and this reduces the effect of the fall in Chicago.

Spot and nearby premiums for Soyameal in the UK is easing due partly to more of Brazil’s roads beinge open again the governent is meeting with leading striking truckers.

We are expecting higher levels today as we update the board, sterling is weaker and chicagos was very strong. Corn and soybeans closed higher Thursday with help from USDA’s early planting estimates of 89.0 million acres for corn and 83.5 million acres for soybeans. Most wheat prices ignored Thursday’s bitter cold temperatures and closed lower on the day.

March soybeans closed back above $10 for the first time in over a month, helped by commercial buying in meal after NOPA’s less-than-expected report of soybean crush for January. Corn and wheat prices ended modestly higher with reports of continued fighting in Ukraine keeping potential sellers cautious.

March soybeans closed higher, helped by commercial buying and another week of bullish export sales data from USDA. Corn and wheat prices closed lower on light volume after a ceasefire agreement was reached between Ukraine and Russia that is supposed to begin on Sunday, Feb. 15.

Corn and wheat closed higher Friday and for the week with strengthening basis for both pointing to steady improvement in demand for cash grains. March soybeans ended the day lower under ongoing bearish pressure from expectations for a record South American harvest.

Chicago Soya meal & Grains in general gave back most of the gains made on Tuesday. UK Rape meal already in £1 lower. We are expecting UK Soy meal to be lower as prices come in too. The weather forecast for rain in Brazil’s key crop areas is keeping bearish pressure on row-crop prices.

The news from South America is once again supportive for crop development, with Argentina continuing to look favourable.

The U.S. dollar responded to the European Central Bank’s move to Quantitative Easing by storming higher Thursday. This put pressure on most commodities, including grains.

Wednesday saw low trading volume in grains, even after USDA said China bought back the soybeans they had cancelled on Tuesday. Soybeans were a little higher while traders wait to see if adequate rains will materialize in central Brazil later this week.

March soybeans closed lower Tuesday after USDA reported China cancelled another sale, this time for 6.4 million bushels of soybeans. Corn and wheat started the day lower, but finished higher with light volume revealing a lack of motivated selling interest at these lower prices.

Prices are easier again today for Soyameal & Rapemeal other commodities are unchanged and cereal based straights are a tad firmer. We are actively trading into 2016

We are seeing £5 to £7.00 per tonne falls on UK Soya meal today. Rape meal also easier by £1 or so.

March corn fell to its lowest close in five weeks, worn down by generally favorable growing conditions in South America and coming just one day after USDA made bullish changes to its corn estimates. Soybeans also finished lower with March meal dropping to its lowest close in eleven weeks.

Buying by China of US Maize Distillers Grains has put the price up £10 in the UK and had a knock on effect on Maize Gluten & Rape meal.Soya meal eased in Chicago yesterday but Soybeans still managed to end positively.

U.K Soya meal prices are lower by £6.00 per tonne, however Maize Gluten, Wheat Distillers & Corn Distillers are firmer by £5.00 per tonne, Rape meal is also a £1 firmer despite the fall in Soya.

December demand has kicked in today with, ADM Erith having withdrawn their price for December 2014 Rapemeal. Resellers are still offering the position at a £3 premium over Jan-Apr The Wheatfeed market is tightening swiftly trading at £120 Ex mill Southern England that is about £130.00 onto farm.