Risk on ? Or Risk Off ? Hedge Fund Dilema

Hedge funds reduced some of their, expansive, bullish bets on agricultural commodities – but may wish they hadn’t, given the firm performance by many contracts late last week.

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Good News and Bad News

Dairy prices rose at Global Dairy Trade to a four-month high, amid talk that cool weather and weak prices are curtailing the surge in European Union milk production.

Feed Prices Rise as the Surge in Ag commodities continues.

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Deep Breaths

Markets taking a breather awaiting fresh news, leading to a quiet close. Soya slightly down today.

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USDA Provide a Shock

The soy complex finished significantly higher yesterday on the back of a shock USDA report which caused the funds to once again pile money into the oilseed. In fact, soymeal finished limit up with soy beans not far off. Most of the surprise lay in both old and new crop carry-outs in the US. The USDA reduced the old crop carry out by 45Mbu to 400Mbu (avg. trade estimate 426Mbu)

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Rape meal Eases

UK Rape meal easier by £2 per tonne across the board.

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Feeling The Pinch ?

The profitability of UK farming fell by a staggering 29% in 2015, a loss of over £1.5 billion. This is the biggest year on year fall since the millennium.

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Soya Sets the Pace.

Chicago soybeans ended higher yesterday, led higher by another rally in soymeal as fund buying was to the fore once again.Chicago wheat futures closed mixed to start the week yesterday with little fresh news to stimulate the market.Sterling reached its highest level against the dollar since the start of January on Monday, tracking gains for the euro against the greenback after solid numbers on manufacturing from Germany and as UK traders return from the long weekend, the pound has managed to breach $1.47.

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Rape – August to October

Down again to £162.00 Ex Mill

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Rape – August – October

Down £5/t to £167.00 Ex Mill

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Hi Pro Soya nudges over the £300/t mark

We have seen a dramatic rise in Soya over the last couple of weeks. On the 5th April we bought at £50/t lower than today’s prices.

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Rape price soars

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Markets Pause for Breath

One of the surprises on yesterday’s markets was the recovery of early losses on the Wheat & Corn markets that were expected to be pressured by a forecast of good weekend rains closing a cent and a half lower on old crop and up by about the same in new crop positions. Talk of a reduction of the amount of stock that China plans to maintain choked of any chance of another really Bullish day but the slight losses at and the close have already been recovered in overnight trading in Soya meal and beans oil is still lower.We do not expect any major prices in the U.K at this stage.

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Very Strong U.S Markets

Very strong US markets fueled by additional Chinese Imports combined with a weakening Sterling over the past few days have a strong upward effect on Soyameal & Rapemeal prices and a steadying in all other Straights in the U.K

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Chicago slips on all but Corn as U.K Rapemeal readjusts Higher

All soya elements closed lower yesterday and wheat was also effected by low export figures meanwhile UK today Rapemeal is £3 higher in the old crop positions the harvest August October range has eased but there is an unexplained increase of £1 in the November 2016 to April 2017 section.

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U.K Prices Rise Due to Weak Sterling

U.K prices are being forced higher due to weakening Sterling.May soybeans fell back from Friday’s high for a second day, pressured by Tuesday’s losses in soybean oil and the Brazilian real. Corn ended a couple cents higher with help from commercial buying while wheat posted a slight loss in the face of dry and windy conditions in the south western Plains.

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Soybeans still gaining from Increased Corn Acres

Grains traded both sides of Thursday’s close, but when the final bell rang on Friday, all three finished higher with the biggest gains going to soybeans. Other commodity markets were not so fortunate with losses seen in livestock, lumber, copper, gold, and crude oil.

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Shortage.What shortage!

A sudden and large reduction in Rapemeal makes a mockery of the supposed pre Easter shortage.

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No Big Surprises from the Easter Bunny

Chicago and K.C. wheat contracts finished higher Monday with ongoing concerns about dry weather in the southwestern Plains. Corn and soy beans tried to trade higher on wheat’s coattails, but finished quietly mixed on light volume.

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WASDE Provides No Lead

Wednesday was USDA report day, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at the sluggish price movement. Soybeans and wheat finished a little higher while corn was a little lower with few changes made to USDA’s February estimates.

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There seems to have been a change in direction

All legs of the Chicago soy complex closed higher on the day, with soybeans hitting two-week highs, as investors continued to cover in some of the record short position they established last week. However gains were pared by reports of farmer selling in cash markets. Funds were buyers of 4000 soybean contracts and 3000 soyoil contracts but were even in soymeal. Weekly US soybean export inspections came in at the high end of expectations at 1.07MMT. Data yesterday showed that China imported 4.51MMT of soybeans in February, which included the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, down 20.3% on January’s imports of 5.66MMT but bigger than last year’s February imports of 4.26MMT. That puts cumulative exports for the Oct/Feb period at 32.22MMT, up 2.4MMT versus last season. In domestic news, the AHDB estimates that the rapeseed area in England and Wales is projected to drop by 10% this year, the lowest rapeseed area since 2009.

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The Brazilian Effect

May soybeans closed higher Friday with a surge of unexpected buying related to political news from Brazil. Corn ended a little higher and survived a test of its January low this week while wheat prices closed mixed on light volume.

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Markets Firm As Week Nears It’s End

After starting the week on a bearish note, wheat has reversed course with fresh concerns about windy and somewhat dry conditions in the southwestern Plains, even getting extra help from Thursday’s lower U.S. dollar. Corn and soybeans were reluctant to follow wheat’s lead, but did hold above price support for another day. Sterling rallied yesterday helping mitigate U.K prices rises.

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Market Round Up

May soybeans closed higher Wednesday, putting at least a temporary halt to six consecutive days of lower closes. May Kansas City wheat closed 5 1/2 cents higher with warm and windy conditions blowing through the southwestern Plains. Sterling edged back above $1.40 yesterday but its recent fall have been felt in U.K pricing.

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Chicago down but U.K may not benefit

ll three grains finished lower Tuesday with row crops pressured by the continuation of favorable conditions in South America. It was Chicago wheat, however, that became the first to break its low in 2016 as U.S. wheat supplies remain plentiful and slow to move.Price falls may not be reflected in the U.K as Sterling continues to weaken against the dollar.

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Big Brazilain Crops

Imea lifts its forecast for corn and soybean harvests in the key Brazilian producing state, putting another soy output record on the cards

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Currency Weaker due to fear of Brexit ?

Wheat was the only U.S market to weaken yesterday Corn Soybeans meal and oil all saw modest gains. Sterling is lower against the dollar supposedly due to fear of Brexit but it is firmer against the Euro so pick your story.

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Net Short

Hedge funds increase their short positions in U.S Ag Commodities

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Crop Reports Add to Bearish Pressure

Grain futures extended losses after much-watched crop report hiked its estimate for wheat inventories to a clear record, and lifted much-watched forecasts for corn and soy stocks in the US too.

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Markets Continue to Weaken

All three grains closed lower Monday with a new contract low seen in March K.C. wheat. Favourable crop conditions in South America along with expectations that USDA will increase ending stocks estimates in Tuesday’s report kept potential buyers uninterested again.

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Sterling Pulls Back Over $1.46

Improvement in £/$ exchange leaves U.K Soya meal down £1 but Rape meal unchanged.

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Weak Year For Wheat In 2015

Wheat futures proved particularly weak in 2015, falling 20% in Chicago. Futures in rival grain corn fell by a more modest 14.5%.

Wheat’s underperformance reflected particular growth in world stocks, seen by the US Department of Agriculture as ending 2015-16 at a record 229.9m tonnes, after a series of strong harvests in major producing countries – including exporters such as the European Union and Russia.
Indeed, competition among exporters has been intense, driving prices lower and leaving the US, saddled with the burden of a strong dollar, looking at its lowest wheat shipments in some 40 years.

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U.K Rapemeal Rises Given Headroom by Soya

U.K Rape meal January +£4 February/April +£1 May/July +£3 August /October +£2.
Soya meal has firmed for the last few days and U.K prices are also affected by Sterling weakness With a shortage of E.U seed upward soya meal gives room for Rape to follow.

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Markets Move Up Despite Short Positions

All three grains closed a little higher Tuesday with the biggest gain seen in K.C. wheat. However, Tuesday’s rebound paled in comparison to Monday’s sell-off as grains remain under bearish pressure from the rising U.S. dollar and rain in Brazil.With Sterling weaker and Chicago markets firmer U.K prices will be higher. Paris Rapeseed was also firm and with alternative proteins also up there will be room for an increase in Rape meal today should crushers wish to take advantage.

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2015 Considered “Destructive” for Commodities

Hedge funds bet on further declines in ags in 2016, even after a year termed by the Bcom as the “most destructive crash in a generation” for commodities as a whole, helped by 19% losses for grain and livestock bulls.

Managed money, a proxy for speculators, undertook a hefty selldown in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities in the week to December 29, to return to a net short position which has been unusual by historical standards, analysis of regulatory data overnight reveals.

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Weaker Euro Boosts Prices.

European markets are of to a positive start this morning Corn & Wheat up 50 to 75 cents and Rapeseed up two Euro’s. This maybe reflective of alterations in exchange rates against a strong dollar

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No Turnaround Tuesday but U.K Rapemeal dances to a different tune

Rather than turning around, the sell-off in grains picked up speed with contracts falling to new lows shortly before the close. Pressure was seen across the board as an early attempt at rallying failed to generate enthusiasm.U.K Rapemeal has strengthened again.

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Grains Play Second Fiddle

Grains took a back seat to outside markets Monday, with large moves seen in gold, natural gas, and cattle (both live and feeders). Grains were under pressure throughout the day in quiet trade.

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Switch in the fortunes of the Dollar Rallies the markets

All three grains closed higher Thursday thanks to a surprising sell-off in the U.S. dollar index after the European Central Bank announced a less aggressive plan of monetary easing than was expected. Wheat prices especially benefited as non-commercial bears were caught off guard by Thursday’s bullish news for grains.

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Markets quiet due to Thanksgiving holiday.

With Thanksgiving yesterday obviously there is no input from the U.S markets. European markets are also quiet with London Wheat unchanged so far and Paris wheat down 25 cents Rapeseed lower by 50 cents for nearby positions but higher by the same amount in November 2016.With the US markets taking a breather yesterday’s focus was on the Eurozone and China. Chinese equities tumbled earlier this morning as some of the largest brokerages disclosed regulatory probes. The Shanghai composite has extended losses to over 5% on the news. Looking forward to today, the highlight will be the second estimate of GDP for Q3 and the expenditure breakdown for the UK. Eyes will also be on Black Friday, as this has proven to be a good indication of consumer confidence in the US.

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Nothing Happening By The Sea

Markets are very quiet again today but with northern hemisphere harvests just about over, statistics on demand are taking on extra importance.

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Warning! As Markets Tread Water

All three grains finished higher Wednesday with quiet trading holding prices in narrow ranges. In the aftermath of Tuesday’s USDA-inspired losses, all three grains were able to successfully attract the interest of commercial buyers.
As with levels in the U.S. U.K and European prices and exchange rates remain trading within a very tight band. True that over the last month the trend remains downwards for Agricultural Feed Commodities. This tendency for the market to tread water for days at time can indicate a decreasing lack of confidence in continual fall. An oversupply of all commodities produced to meet exponential growth in China & other fast developing nations, does and will continue to weigh on the market,but at this time of year we often see a rapid pick up into northern hemisphere demand. This can catch shippers and producers out. One minute they are looking at empty order books and low stocks due to reducied shipping on a falling market,the next they are outpaced by last minute spot buying. Add to this situation storm delays to shipments and icing rivers and quickly you have a very tight spot market in U.K and European ports.

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U.S Worries that Brazil Soy Crop Exaggerated

US officials foresee the Brazil’s soybean harvest falling short of estimates from many other analysts, amid debate over the benefit from recent rains

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Ethanol Still Provides Strong Demand For U.S. Corn

US ethanol production soared last week at their fastest in five months, defying low margins identified by sector giant Archer Daniels Midland – and with the potential for further increases to come.

US ethanol producers, which use corn as their major feedstock, manufactured the biofuel at a rate of 969,000 barrels a day last week, Energy Information Administration said.

That represented the fastest pace of output in three months, and an increase of 25,000 barrels a day, or 2.6%, on production the previous week, and well ahead of market expectations.

“We had expected a rise of 1-2%,” said Jerrod Kitt, analyst at Linn Group, while rival Chicago broker Futures International forecast a drop of some 4,000 barrels a day.

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Turnaround Tuesday ‘Jim’ but not as we know it!

All three grains closed higher Tuesday, taking back part of Monday’s losses with help from commercial buyers in the face of a higher U.S. dollar index and higher crop estimates from Informa.Soyameal was in fact lower and Sterling managed to outpace a rising dollar so U.K prices should not be that affected today. U.S. harvest weather remains excellent.

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Mixed Picture

Dryness in Russia and the Ukraine caused commercials to buy Wheat yesterday in Chicago aided by a fall in the dollar wheat closed 9 cents per bushel higher in the December 2015 position.This helped corn however Rain in Brazil pinned back Soya beans however Soya meal managed to close modestly higher but has continued in that direction overnight. I would think U.K Soya prices will be unchanged as sterling is trading over £1.53 again but might be slightly firmer nearby. London Wheat was up £0.65 yesterday and may follow Chicago higher on the open this morning.

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Grain Markets Fell Yesterday With Only a Modest Recovery Today

Yesterday Chicago Soya meal closed $4.8 to $3.1 lower, soybeans were 9.6 cents to 4.2 cents per bushel lower, Wheat & Corn also fell but to a lesser extent. Markets have risen slightly so far today and Soya meal is £2.00 lower in the U.K today with Rape meal listed as unchanged.

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Soya Rises

Soybeans finished yesterday higher while corn was lower, a mild response to Monday’s opposite directions for both. Except for two days of rain in the eastern Midwest, row crop harvest is going well and is not far from being done. In the U.K the rise in Chicago & the drop off in the value of Sterling as news came in that the economy is slowing and manufacturing is slipping back into recession sent Soya meal price £2.00 higher

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Dissappointing outlook for Corn in Argentina

Argentina backed ideas of a sharp drop in corn sowing, despite foreseeing a late-year rush in planting, as it cautioned over quality in early-harvested wheat.

The country’s farm ministry, in its first estimate for domestic corn sowings for 2015-16, pegged plantings at 5.30m hectares, down 700,000 hectares year on year.

The drop in sowings to what would be a four-year low will be led by a decline in corn aimed at “commercial” use, rather than for silage or livestock consumption, the ministry said.

It also said that sowing had so far enjoyed “good” soil moisture conditions, but unfavourable temperatures.

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Rapmpant $

Despite ‘whopping’ export sales, a sharp jump in the greenback saps soybean prices, along with most ags, but sugar prices surge

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CBOT report 22.10.15

All three grains closed higher Wednesday, helped by commercial buyers responding to this week’s low prices and unexpected news that China bought soyabean oil from the U.S. A risk of flooding in the Southern Plains the next few days is keeping short sellers nervous in wheat.

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Brazilian confidence but Harvest Fears in Ukraine

Brazilian Soya growers can live with low prices, the Chicago market could hit an 8 year low & they would still be in profit. Officials say. In the Ukraine a dry Summer is feared likely to impact on the Autumn Harvest especially Corn

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Thirteen Proves Lucky For The Bulls

Tuesday the 13th proved to be lucky for grain producers. At least this one was with solid gains seen in soybeans and wheat while corn followed along behind. Soyameal was up $11.4 on the October 15 position with a rise of $5.7 recorded for the December 20167 slot. These rises will more than outweigh a slight improvement in Sterling against the dollar.

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Commodities Expected to Fall Further

Goldman Sachs forecast that commodities overall will fall by some 10% over the next year, raising doubts over recent recoveries of many raw materials, such as metals and energy.

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Proteins

Soya meal and Rapeseed meal have both firmed over the last 24 hours. Rape on a slight increase in demand and Soya on a smaller than expected US harvest.

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Early Market Moves October 9 th

There was some volatility about in ag markets early on Friday, but it had yet to filter through to US futures, with a big US Department of Agriculture report due later

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Demand Remains Low

Low demand is still putting pressure on spot Rape prices.
Now could be the time to squeeze in a cheap load between contracted loads.Soya and Soya Hull prices remain flat. Demand for sugarbeet is picking up. Organics are remaining pretty static.

 

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Chicago Market

In the States they are getting excited about a turn-around in soft commodity prices. However the rises they have are only due to a weaker Dollar. To the rest of the world prices are still fairly static.

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Cargill UK

Cargill have withdrawn from FEMAS at the Brocklebank Crush site in Liverpool. All other Cargill UK sites remain certified.

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Harvest Pressure Continues

November soybeans closed lower Thursday with ongoing harvest pressure quickly erasing Wednesday’s benefit of a bullish stocks report from USDA. Corn and wheat finished higher, helped by a lower U.S. dollar and commercial buying in wheat with concerns about conditions in Australia.

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Soya – on a slow slide

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Sugar

Sugar prices rose today. The October raw sugar contract surged 4.2% in New York, on its last day of trading, at 12.25 cents a pound in midday deals.

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Palm Kernel

Palm expeller prices spiked overnight in the Origin as Shippers competed for cargo to fill loading vessels.
Prices were paid up to $ 98 FOB, this up from $ 68 in August and only $ 78 little more than a week ago.
Price spike makes little sense as NZ demand is reducing as Summer grass becomes more available.

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You are not alone

If you didn’t see the drop in commodity prices coming.

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Rapeseed Production to Fall

The IGC, in its first comments on EU rapeseed prospects for next year, sees Polish sowing falling. And Ukraine area could slump nearly 40%

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Markets Ease Further

All three grains closed lower Tuesday, along with the stock market and most other commodities, as investors continue to show concern about the larger economic picture. Favourable weather for harvest is also keeping grain prices under pressure.

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Soybean fall after the US ups the condition rating for the domestic crop, while hopes for swift harvesting dent corn. Commerzbank cuts wheat price forecasts, but to levels above the futures curve – and is upbeat on corn

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Sterling to the Rescue

No Chicago trade yesterday due to Labour day, eCBOT is higher this morning but only by $1 to $2 not enough to offset the improvement in Sterling.U.K Rape meal prices are lower as poor off take increases the near term discount.Soya is also lower as sterling improves.

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Rapeseed Meal

Changes for 15/16MY in main Production countries:

European Union DOWN by -972 (-6.76%) thd. mt to 13,398 thd. mt
China DOWN by -530 (-4.60%) thd. mt to 10,975 thd. mt
Canada DOWN by -255 (-6.24%) thd. mt to 3,830 thd. mt
India UP by +59 (+1.61%) thd. mt to 3,719 thd. mt

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Sugar

Just sold French Sugar at £390 delivered

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Early Thoughts

Yesterday afternoon we could take advantage of a drop in Soya meal prices but the window as brief this morning Sterling is weaker against the dollar and eCBOT has reversed much of yesterday’s fall.

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Chiicago Grains Report 1.09.15

Corn and soybeans fell lower Tuesday, pressured by more bearish economic news from China and expectations for large U.S. harvests ahead. December Chicago wheat ended a little higher with help from Tuesday’s lower U.S. dollar index.

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Soya down

Soya falls on more bad news on the Chinese economy

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Oilseeds under pressure

The recent fall in crude oil prices are putting oilseeds under pressure

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Wheat Gluten

Wheat Gluten shipment arrives in southern UK. Depending on how close to the port you are prices range from £146.00/t.

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Rapeseed Meal Prices

Down £8 over the last week.

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Unrest in Brazil

Unrest in Brazil may lead to strikes including ports.

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Ukrainian Rape Harvest

21% less than last season at 1.73 MMT versus 2.2 MMT in 2014.

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Markets continue to Strengthen

All three grains posted double-digit gains Monday with corn contracts showing the biggest percentage jumps. the seven-day forecast expects mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt with hot temperatures in the Southern Plains stressing crops.

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Soya shakes off downward spiral.

After quite a prolonged drifting off in prices the last three Chicago sessions have closed with Soyameal higher. This hardly a trend yet but December corn and November soybeans closed higher Thursday, helped by commercial buyers going after this week’s lower prices and the market’s persistent demand for soy bean meal.

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U.K Prices Ease

Sterling has performed well and with the U.K supply side improving we have seen marked reductions in both Rapemeal & Soyamael

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Wheatfeed nearby weakness pressures forward Markets

Wheatfeed has esaed off a little on the forward market probably as areflection of its’ nearby weakness

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June Closes with a Bang on CBOT.

With an almost $20 increase in Soyameal & 30cents per bushel Corn & 34 cents Wheat yesterday we can safely predict U.K prices will be higher today. Watch our latest prices page as prices update as they come in.All three grains closed sharply higher, ending the month of June on a bullish note after USDA said corn and soybean supplies were less than expected on June 1. Wheat also closed higher in sympathy with row crops, even after USDA said 2014-15 ended with 753 million bushels, more than expected.

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Rain Damages U.S Corn Crop

Hopes for US corn yields this year took a knock after heavy rains prompted a bigger-than-expected drop in the condition rating, with expectations for soybean productivity eroding too.

The US Department of Agriculture overnight, in a weekly crop report, cut by 3 points to 68% its rating of the proportion of domestic corn in “good” or “excellent” condition, reflecting Midwest inundations blamed for everything from preventing fieldwork to encouraging mosquito outbreaks .

The downgrade, which was 1 point larger than investors had expected, expanded the gap between the 2015 crop and last year’s, which was rated at 75% good or excellent in late June, and ended up showing a record yield of 171.0 bushels per acre.

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ADM Eirth July close down

ADM’s mill in Erith will be closed for annual maintenance between the 6th and the 20th July.

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Summer time . . .

US soybeans closed sharply higher again yesterday after another round of short-covering by funds, sparked by increasing concerns about planting delays in the US Midwest.

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Wet Weather Drives U.S Ag Markets Higher

Moderate to heavy rain working from eastern Texas through the Ohio Valley are expected to continue at least until Friday, hurting winter wheat harvest and taking corn and soy bean acres out of production.

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U.K Prices

UK Rape meal remains extremely tight & Soya has benefited from weakness in the dollar and has eased a pound or two. Most other commodities are unchanged on the lists but may be biddable.

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Rapemeal Takes a Giant Leap

U.K Rape meal is up a hefty £8.00 per tonne on the old crop positions today.

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Rape Meal Counter to Soya Meal

Early indications suggest that May/July Rape meal is up by £3.00 with August/April 2016 down £1.00. It appears that there is ongoing nearby demand with little cover taken and seed is getting harder to come by. Soya meal is easier by £2.00 on average.

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Higher U.K Prices

U.K sees both Rape meal and Soya higher following the fall our off against the dollar and despite a slight fall in the Chicago Market.

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Sterling Slips

The U.K currency has fallen back against the dollar and the Euro during the course of the day. With U.K entering deflation there is little or no chance of an interest rate rise. This invalidates all the prices will review tomorrow.

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Rape meal Gets in on the Act

U.K Rape meal £2.00 higher in all positions today.

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Nearby Soya Prices Soar

Nearby positions & spot premiums have soared today for Soya meal in the U.K. There maybe problems in the supply pipeline. Prices up £7.00 per tonne in places.

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Soya is it Time to buy?

Spot premiums are eroding on Soya helped by a strong pound this could be the time for some cover.

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Soya down £10 in some positions

Soya prices have plummeted overnight.

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Malt Residule Pellets

We have a few loads to clear – call for a competitive price.

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Soya Prices Lower

The price of Soya is lower today on the back of higher ending stocks in the US.

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Forward and Spot Rape

A lot of farm interest in forward and spot Rape today.

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UK Soya Trade Active

Yesterday afternoon 3,500 tonnes of June – April Hi Pro was bought by UK traders in the southern half of the country.

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Wheatfeed Prices ? ? ?

Despite grain prices being low wheatfeed prices are still a premium.

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