Farage move sends the pound higher.

12.11.19 Rapemeal is unchanged as are most mid range proteins allowing for some adjustments to Maize levels. Soyameal in the UK also appears unchanged which is disappointing looking at the Chicago numbers below.Wheat futures began the week lower on technical selling and weak export demand. USDA crop progress and export inspections are delayed until Tuesday.Soybean futures dropped double digits out of the weekend, falling by 12 3/4 to 14 1/2 cents on Veterans Day. Soybean meal is $4.30/ton lower at the start of the week. Brexit Party’s Nigel Farage sent the pound higher on Monday, as he announced he won’t fight Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in the upcoming general election his proposals to leave Tory seats unchallenged was interpreted as increasing the likelihood of the Boris WA being accepted or possibly a Canada ++, but mainly means there is a reduced fear of Corbyn being let in widely considered a disaster by most traders.

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Tory Poll Lead Helps Support Sterling

Rapemeal has continued to firm in the UK this morning ex store mid protein straights are unchanged but there has been a £2 up tick for Palm Kernel. Soya seems to be £2 easier. Chicago wheat finished 2-3 cents lower on Friday, despite the USDA lowering the 2019/20 US wheat crop. Chicago corn posted gains of around 8½ cents in the immediate aftermath of the USDA report but ended up only 2-3 cents higher at the close.Chicago beans and meal closed lower to end the week on Friday, with the optimism about US-China trade talks that marked Thursday’s trade disappearing on Friday.Sterling continues to trade the December 12th UK election, as the market continues to consolidate around the $1.28 level against the US dollar for the moment. Most weekend Newspapers had polls showing an increased lead by the Conservatives. This is help Sterling against a strong US dollar.

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November USDA Report

Wheat

The US crop was lowered by 42Mbu (1.14MMT) to 1,920Mbu (52.3MMT), with food & Seed usage slightly lower and exports unchanged at 950Mbu (25.9MMT). As a result the new crop carry out dropped by 29Mbu (0.79MMT) to 1,014Mbu (27.6MMT) versus the average market estimate at 1,035Mbu (28.1MMT).

The world wheat crop was raised by 0.3MMT, with the US -1.1MMT to 52,3, Arg -0.5MMT to 20MMT, Aus -0.8MMT to 17.2MMT and Russia +1.5MMT to 74MMT. World wheat demand was kept virtually unchanged. World exports was raised by 1MMT. Overall, world end stocks increased by 0.5MMT to 288.3MMT (vs 277.9MMT last year). Stocks ex China increased by 0.5MMT to 142.6MMT (vs 138.1MMT last year).

Corn

On corn, the US yield was lowered from 168.4bpa to 167.0bpa. Harvested acres were unchanged at 81.8mln, versus the avg market estimate at 81.5mln. As a result production came in at 13,661Mbu (347MMT) versus 13,643Mbu (346.5MMT) expected. However, offsetting the reduction in yield, the USDA lowered both the Feed & Residual figure (25Mbu [0.64MMT]) and Exports (50Mbu [1.3MMT]). As a result, the new crop carry-out came in at 1,910Mbu (48.5MMT) versus the avg market estimate at 1,817Mbu (46.2MMT).

World carry in dropped by 4MMT. World production dropped by 2MMT, mostly due to the smaller US. World demand was raised by 1MMT with. world exports raised by 0.5MMT. With the carry in lower and production down, world stocks fell by 6MMT to 296MMT (down from 320MMT last year).

Soybeans

There were no changes to the US yield (46.9bpa) and harvested acreage (75.6mln) so production was unchanged at 3550Mbu (96.6MMT) versus 3510Mbu (95.5MMT) expected. The only thing that changed was crush which was lowered by 15Mbu (0.4MMT), due to lower meal exports. All-in-all, the carry out increased from 460Mbu (12.5MMT) to 475Mbu (12.9MMt) versus the pre-report avg estimate at 428Mbu (11.6MMT)

World production was lowered by 2.5MMT but the main players were all unchanged (US 96.6MMT, Brazil 123MMT, Argentina 53MMT). World crush was lowered by 1.5MMT. World imports stayed virtually unchanged with China at 85MMT. Overall, world stocks increased by 0.2MMT to 95.4MMT (down from 109.7MMT last year).

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US China talks considered positive while BofE surprises some.

UK Maize prices have risen by £3 and Ex store Rapemeal has firmed by £2 through the Winter. CBOT corn fell for the 6th straight day to a 6-week intraday low close.Wheat prices in the UK are extending gains to reach new season highs as wet weather continues to impede planting progress.Chicago reacted firm on the news that China confirmed that it agreed with US to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods in Phases.The US$ was consolidating after surging to a three-week high on Thursday in response to growing confidence that the economically damaging tariffs enacted by the U.S. and China on each other’s products will be reversed. A surprise dovish shift at the heart of the Bank of England’s (BoE) MPC raised a few eyebrows Sterling retreated to $1.28..

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Ag Markets Show Little Direction Sterling Consolidates

There is wheatfeed available  ex store Teignmouth from December onward. Prices of Rapemeal ex store have adjusted in both directions. UK Maize prices are lower by £2. CBOT grains were mostly muted after a firm overnight session with traders awaiting further news from a potential US-China trade deal. In a choppy trading session, bean futures closed practically unchanged.Dec meal closed at $308.60 (up $1.70) while Dec oil finished at 30.58 cents/pound down 0.27.Sterling consolidates around the $1.29 mark as European leaders discuss whether they should extend the Brexit deadline and by how much.

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Stronger Pound, cover taking

We have had a flurry of buyers taking cover this afternoon on the back of lower prices due to a stronger Pound. CBOT has traded higher so slightly up from the lows.

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Brexit Deal Optimism Gives Sterling A Boost.

11.10.19 The prospect of a deal has caused a surge in the value of Sterling this has had am immediate effect on prices in the UK Soya meal and Rapemeal are markedly lower. CBOT corn fell 14¢ on a bearish US crop report and low export sales. US wheat futures ended lower following a USDA report which raised both US and world stocks from last month, with non-China world stocks up over 4 MMT on last year.CBOT beans bounced 10¢ following the USDA report, then gave it all back into the close on slumping corn and uncertainty surrounding the US/China trade talks, but are 10¢ higher again on the overnight session following last night’s much more optimistic comments from Trump.Oil prices jumped after an Iranian-owned oil tanker was struck by two missiles off the Saudi port of Jeddah.

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Strong Rise In Ag Commodities Due to Adverse Weather.

UK Soyameal initial levels show a rise of £4 Ex store Rapemeal is £2 higher, Maize is up £1 across the Winter positions today.Grains turned higher in the afternoon on both sides of the Atlantic due to the arrival of heavy snowfall in parts of the Northern US Plains and Canada, leading to Spec Fund short covering. Wheat rallied 5-11¢ amidst fund buying.Beans and meal settled higher in Chicago – Nov beans closed at 920.50 cents/bu (up 5.25 cents), Dec meal finished at $306.90 (up $4.80), oil futures settled in the red. Concerns about slow harvest progress and unfavourable US harvest weather conditions. The Fed is to continue buying treasury bills to avoid another liquidity crunch in the US money markets this helped the US dollar Sterling dipped to $1.2195 after Boris Johnson accused Angela Merkel of making a deal ‘essentially impossible’. There is talk of an alternative to the backstop being offered by the EU.

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Stockmarkets Crash on Global Economic Fears Commodities Sail On

UK Soya down £2-£3 Rapemeal two pounds higher at Erith Liverpool & Hull up by £1 but not in all positions today..Grains continued lower for a 2nd consecutive day after they had reached multi-weeks high on both sides of the Atlantic in the last two sessions. CBOT beans were lower yesterday. Sterling dipped to 1.22288 after fluctuating in a tight range as Boris Johnson proposed an all-island regulatory zone in Ireland in his final pitch for a Brexit deal. Stock markets crashed on fears of a global economic slow down..

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Markets Calm Ahead of Weekend.

Rapemeal has been rising for the last few days but UK soyameal is lower today by £2 Most other ex store straights are little changed.US wheat saw a bit of a turnaround yesterday as the Minneapolis market, which had rallied for more than three weeks, closed lower (after making a new high earlier in the day) while Chicago finished higher after being lower in the last four sessions. The Chicago soya complex had another fairly muted session yesterday as beans and oil finished virtually unchanged while meal finished $1-2 lower, giving back most of the previous day’s gains. he US dollar is holding near multi-week highs against most major currencies as heightened political tensions between the US and China increased the greenback’s safe-haven appeal.

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Soya market news

* U.S. weather unchanged, warm this week and cooling off next. Some frost risk for the far north Midwest but conditions have been largely beneficial.
* Braz plantings now underway, though only 0.5% complete vs 3% last year given low soil moisture. Long range forecast still dry.
* Market expects further announcements of US bean sales to China, but no expectation of a wider trade deal. Talks resume in 2 weeks.
* Braz beans lower on US/China news, Argie meal premiums soft
* Prices largely unch

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FX and General background

Brent oil dropped by almost 6% following Monday’s big gains after Saudi Arabia said they had already restored 50% of the capacity that was damaged by missile strikes over the weekend. The Saudis added that they expect to be fully recovered in 2-3 weeks which was bearish news to a market that had initially expected a longer shutdown. Sterling tested the $1.2520 resistance zone for the second time since last week.The UK will release the latest inflation figures today. In the US, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision today. They are broadly expected to lower rates by 0.25% to 1.75%-2.00%.

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Soya Down – Rapeseed Meal Unchanged – Sterling Stronger

Soya in the US has traded higher from Friday’s levels but significantly stronger Sterling means we’re seeing Soya prices £2 lower. UK Rapeseed meal is unchanged from Friday. Brent Crude was up 10% but Saudi have said they can replace lost production and the US President authorised used of their Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a buffer.

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Global Fears Ease Ag Commodities Rise.

13.09.19. US Ag commodity markets rose strongly yesterday following positive noises from both the US and Chinese authorities about an interim trade deal and a relaxation of tariffs.The US currency weakened as other currencies benefited from the brighter outlook for the world economy by such as possibility. Sterling managed to rise above $1.24 as fears of a disorganized brexit started to fade and WTO statement that even a no deal brexit would have little impact on the UK economy and reassurances from the Port of Dover that there will not be delays even if there is no deal.

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USDA released their September WASDE report

As of 18:00, the markets are trading as follows:

US Soymeal (Dec-19) | $ 301.20 | +6.5
US Soybeans (Nov-19) | C$ 891.75 | +25.25
US Corn (Dec-19) | CS 362.75 | +2.75
US Wheat (Dec-19) | C$ 482.00 | +4.5
Matif Wheat (Dec-19) | € 169.00 | -0.25
LIFFE Wheat (Nov-19) | £134.00 | -0.75

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Market lower

Wheat and Maize Distillers are both £5 lower today. Soyameal has dropped a little too. There have been adjustments to Rapemeal most positions have firmed a little.Chicago wheat futures bounced yesterday along with most other ags, as reports that China was (once again) going to buy US ag products supported futures markets. commodities such as corn and soya which all ended positively. Sterling is also holding up well.

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Sterling Recovers As Political Carnage Continues.

05.09.19. There are only marginal price changes in the UK today Rapemeal is £2 lower from November onwards. Chicago wheat posted strong some gains yesterday, as a broadly weaker US dollar sparked some life into a market .Corn saw a second straight day of contract low closes yesterday as the market finished 2-3 cents lower. Chicago beans and meal made some decent gains yesterday, helped by a flash sale of 452,000MT of US beans to Mexico as well as a 0.5% drop in the US dollar.Sterling has extended its recovery to $1.2260 against the dollar this morning (the best 24 hour performance in more than five months).

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USDA Report seems bearish in all quarters mainly Corn 12,08.19 15.30 GMT

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USDA Report seems bearish in all quarters mainly Corn 12,08.19 15.30 GMT

USDA Report seems  bearish in all quarters mainly Corn 12,08.19 15.30 GMT That is the update. 

 

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Sterling at lowest since March 2017 but UK Ag Com prices have a muted increase.

Sterling has taken an absolute kicking and considering this we are fortunate in the muted reaction in UK Mid Protein products. Generally including Rapemeal they are higher by £2 per tonne. UK Soya in up £3/£4. Chicago wheat futures began the week on a firmer footing yesterday.corn managed some small gains yesterday, with the market ending the day around 2 cents higher.Soybeans and soymeal finished with small gains yesterday, with continued optimism about Chinese goodwill. Sterling fell to its lowest level since March 2017 as the brinkmanship policy looks like leading to a messy Brexit.

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Double Down Days In Chicago & Brexit Jitters

Chicago grain markets ended lower again yesterday, with corn once again leading the way as it traded 11-12 cents lower at one point before recovering modestly into the close to finish 5-6 cents lower. A second “down day” for the bean complex yesterday as follow through selling sent the market lower again. The pound fell to the lowest level since 2017 yesterday as the market once again reckoned with no-deal Brexit risk after the contenders to be UK Prime Minister intensified demands to renegotiate on Brexit.

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Markets Feeling Sloppy

After a brief dip yesterday UK Rapemeal has bounced back to its previous levels this morning.Chicago and other world wheat markets had another weak day yesterday, with Chicago making its lowest close for a month.Corn was weaker overnight and early in the session, falling to six-week lows but recovered as the day progressed to claw its self back into the green by the close. Chicago beans saw a second day of losses yesterday, dropping another 10 cents with Nov-19 beans closing below $9 for the first time in three weeks, with the market largely ignoring Monday night’s crop ratings and planting progress report.Sterling had a difficult day yesterday, with economic data, politics and commentary all pressuring the pound.

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S Markets Bounce Back Strongly Taking UK Prices Higher.

Prices sprang back into life yesterday after the weaker first half of the week, with solid gains in corn but more muted gains in wheat.Chicago beans gained 12 cents yesterday to make their highest close since early April, as a cooler and wetter 30-day weather outlook for the US Midwest supported ideas that prevent plant bean acres could be higher than expected. UK Rapemeal unchanged nearby £2 up for new crop Soya has bounced up £6. The US dollar remains generally under pressure in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s signalling in midweek that it was prepared to cut interest rates if the US economy slowed.

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Chicago and the dollar but Sterling is in a better mood

Rapemeal has eased again by £1 to £2 Maize is lower in the nearby positions too. Chicago wheat closed lower again on Wednesday, pressured by some warmer and drier conditions in the US Midwest into next week. Corn also lost ground. The Chicago Soya complex was weak across the board yesterday with beans and meal closing lower in sympathy with grains but oil managed to just about close in the green.The US dollar fell yesterday after the Federal Reserve signaled it was prepared to lower interest rates to combat growing global and domestic risks.Sterling was buoyant ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting later on Thursday, where the central bank may strike a relatively more confident tone than its peers.

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Markets Move Higher As Delayed Planting Likely to Effect Soyabean & Corn Yields.

UK Rapemeal £2 to £3 higher.Chicago corn futures extended the post USDA gains and July-19 futures are up another 7¢ overnight.Chicago wheat futures ended up 810¢ yesterday with another 2-3¢ on the overnights. Markets yesterday saw a firmer board led by the soy complex. Soybeans saw the biggest gains driven by a statement of the USDA they would revise US bean forecast in the July report suggesting some changes to bean acres and yield. The market seemed to interpret that as bullish.The US$ held steady against a basket of the other major currencies after rebounding from two-month lows.

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Flat as a Fluke

Prices in the UK are broadly unchanged The Chicago market had a quiet start to the week yesterday, especially in relation to the activity of the past few weeks. Chicago wheat closed 2-3 cents higher on the day, corn was little changed. Soya beans and meal ended a bit higher.Sterling dipped yesterday but has managed to recover most of the losses after the UK saw disappointing production and growth data yesterday.

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Queit Start To The Week

UK prices are unchanged from last week with the exception of Maize which is down a pound or two and Soya meal down on average by £3.Chicago wheat closed lower to end the week on Friday, with some profit-taking likely as traders looked ahead to tomorrow’s USDA report which is expected to bring only minor changes on wheat.Chicago corn was weaker all day on Friday before closing 4-5 cents lower on the day, pressured by a relatively dry forecast in the US Midwest which will allow for some planting progress.The Chicago soya complex was also lower to end the week with a less active weather pattern expected to allow bean planting to pick up this week.The European Central Bank (ECB) revised its forward guidance at its monetary meeting last week, saying that it would not raise the interest rates before mid-2020.Data being announced in the UK this week will set the mood for Sterling.

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Prices Ease as US Planting Window Opens

Chicago markets were under pressure all day yesterday as Midwest weather forecasts got drier for the northern half of the Corn Belt which should extend the planting window for those looking to get something in the ground. All legs of the Chicago Soya complex closed lower yesterday, as a drier forecast for the Midwest led to talk of potentially higher bean acres.Sterling was mostly steady yesterday, managing to stay above the $1.27 level against the US dollar however it has fallen back below this level this morning.

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Global Markets Remain Volatile

Global wheat & corn markets had a volatile day yesterday, with most markets trading in big ranges. Chicago wheat was one of the most volatile, trading in a 30+ cent range with an overnight rally making way for a sell-off during the main session. The Chicago soya complex was no stranger to the volatility in the grains markets yesterday, with beans and meal both seeing big gains overnight. There was a decent sell-off later in the session but unlike the grains markets, both beans and meal managed to close higher on the day.The US dollar index is hovering near two-year highs this morning as persistent concerns over global trade tensions prompted investors to seek refuge in safe haven assets. The euro was under pressure due to fresh signs of political tensions between Italy and the EU.

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Explosive start to the week as Traders return from long weekend

Marked increase in all UK prices this week due to very strong US markets. Global grains markets rallied sharply yesterday, with corn once again the main driver pulling other markets in its wake. Chicago corn closed 16-17 cents higher on continued concerns over wet weather and the effect this will have on US acreage and eventual yields.The Chicago soya complex had an explosive return from the long weekend yesterday, with beans closing 26 cents higher and meal finishing ~$12 higher.Sterling was mostly flat yesterday, but the US dollar rose as data showed that consumers remained resilient to trade war rhetoric surrounding the US.

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Wheat holds out other markets fall.

Sterling has fallen back further below the $1.30 overnight and is lower against the Euro too. UK Erith Rapemeal is unchanged but over the last week we have seen the new crop positions strengthen. US Wheat managed some modest gains but Corn has fallen to new lows and Soyabeans & Oil were under considerable downward pressure yesterday.Cross party Brexit talks are said to be heeding little progress and reports suggest they are in danger of collapsing as soon as next week..

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Easter Oil Rising

Sterling has fallen back beneath $1.30 over the weekend and is lower against the Euro by a tad. UK Erith Rapemeal is unchanged but over the last week we have seen the new crop positions strengthen. US Wheat & Corn were sharply lower corn making new contract lows. Soyabeans and meal were also lower with good harvest progress and heavy yields in South America weighing on the market.Crude rose to a five-month high, as Washington’s decision to end sanctions waivers on Iranian oil imports buoyed oil markets for a second day.

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Quiet Trading Ahead of Delayed USDA Numbers

here are modest increases today in the UK for Maize Gluten Soya which some shippers show as unchanged others have added a pound and rapemeal unchanged in the south slightly higher in the north nearby but reduced a little for new crop. Chicago wheat finished mixed yesterday as the carry structure in the market narrowed, with the nearby March contract closing higher but the deferred contract closing 1-5 cents lower. Chicago corn saw more sideways trade yesterday but still managed to finish just over a cent higher .Chicago soya complex stayed in a tight a very tight trading range as beans finished slightly higher but meal closed lower again.Sterling continued lower against both the Euro and the US dollar yesterday, on the back of a weak Purchasing Managers’ Index for Services which fell to 50.1 in January, the lowest since July 2016.

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Markets In Holding Pattern Awaiting USDA & Brexit News.

UK Soyameal prices are unchanged to slightly softer today. Rapemeal also only shows minor changes. Maize Gluten Wheat & Maize Distillers show falls of £3 to£6 per tonne with PK joining in with a £2 reduction.Chicago wheat futures gained around 3 cents yesterday, with most of the gains coming later in the session on the back of a weakening US dollar. Chicago corn managed to recover Tuesday’s losses yesterday but remained in the recent range as the market continues to wait for some meaningful info from the USDA. The Chicago soya complex was fairly muted again yesterday but mostly firmer across the board except for soymeal which continued to decline versus the gains in oil.The US dollar saw some weakness last night and this has extended into this morning after the Federal Reserve dialed back its predictions of future rate hikes.The pound was also stronger against the dollar, with GBP/USD hitting highs of $1.3156 this morning, but gains look likely to be held in check amid ongoing uncertainty over Britain’s plans to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

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All Quiet On The Commodities Front.

In the UK Maize Gluten Distillers PK and Maize all unchanged. Rapemeal there are minimal changes in both directions with an increase in premiums for Winter 2019/20. Soyameal prices are also effectively unchanged Most Chicago ag commodities finished lower yesterday, with markets lacking enthusiasm as they await the return of key information from the USDA. It needs to catch up following the partial government shut down.Sterling has managed to recover above $1.31 against the dollar this morning, after dropping about 0.7% against the dollar and euro last night following a series of UK parliamentary votes.

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To Start The Week.

Maize products and the mid protein range prices are unchanged on list today. We would expect some leverage as Sterling is doing well. Soya is down between £1 and £4 to varying degrees around the country and Rapemeal is unchanged at Erith but lower forward in the north. .Chicago wheat closed lower to end the week on Friday, in a narrow trading day.Chicago corn closed around three cents higher on Friday.The Chicago soya complex traded higher to end the week on Friday, with beans and oil seeing the best gains.Sterling hit $1.32 in early trading this morning, continuing last week’s move higher which saw the pound make it’s fifth straight week of gains against the US dollar.Hopes are rising that the PM can get something through the house that Brussels will concur with to avaid no deal.

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Any origin GM Maize has eased by £1 Maize Gluten by another £2 today, Rapemeal is unchanged. Hi Pro Soya is £1 to £2 lower nearby and £3 to £4 lower further forward.Chicago wheat futures managed another higher close yesterday, helping the market to its best close in five weeks. Chicago corn closed almost unchanged yesterday in a very dull trading day, with fresh news limited.It was a mixed day for the Chicago soya complex yesterday, with beans and oil making gains but meal finish more-or-less unchanged.Sterling rallied for a third successive day yesterday and is now up 1.5% against the US dollar and Euro this week, as the UK’s opposition Labour Party looks set to back a parliamentary move to rule out “no-deal” Brexit and possibly postpone the withdrawal to the end of the year.

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Steady As She Goes

Wheat Distillers pellets have eased by £4 in some ports today. Rapemeal has come in unchanged with a slight increase on forward positions from some sellers. Soyameal is unchanged for nearby positions with some shippers easing forward position by £1 to £2.US Wheat futures had a firmer day yesterday to finish up 2 in Chicago.Corn traded firmer after Tuesday’s sharp break with futures closing 2-3 cents higher as export demand from Korea, Indonesia and Iran.Soybeans and meal closed with modest gains.Sterling continues to hold its ground above $1.285 after Theresa May survived another vote of no confidence, this time in her government.

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Nothing Changes Really

UK Soyameal levels are coming in today at down £2 to £3. Rapemeal and the mid proteins mainly unchanged.Chicago wheat closed lower again yesterday, with commodity markets again rattled by the continued lack of detail surrounding the US/China negotiations. Chicago corn saw its most active day since the November USDA report yesterday, trading in a 10 cent range before closing around 7 cents lower on the day Chicago soybeans and soymeal fell to two-week lows yesterday, with fund liquidation said to be a feature as the more negative comments emerged on US/China negotiations..In the midst of the Brexit turmoil traders are not sure what to do with the pound. Delaying Brexit some think is good but a potential no deal is perceived as bad. Labour winning the vote of confidence would they realise be worse than anything Brexit could cause but then they aren’t going to win it. So as you where Sterling.

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Markets Behaving Normally Politicians Not.

There are some sharper prices available for Rapemeal today.Again Mid range proteins are unchanged in the UK today. UK Soyameal is easier in some positions.Chicago wheat futures closed around 5 cents lower to start the week yesterday, Chicago corn was also weakened early on by the poor Chinese data but managed to recover into the close as the market finished slightly higher.The Chicago soya complex began the week on a softer footing yesterday.Sterling is holding up well as the Brexit debate rumbles on.

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Chaos Surrounds Us But Ag Markets Remain Calm

UK Soyameal is up £2.00 although unchanged in Liverpool whereas Liverpool Rapemeal is up £3 nearby and £2 forward but unchanged at Erith. Other commodities seem unchanged.Chicago wheat made some decent gains early in the session – with the market up 7-8 cents at one point – but it could not hold on to these gains and finished only 1-2 cents higher on the day.Chicago corn was also firmer early in the session but eventually ran into some technical pressure, with a late sell-off pulling the market lower into the close. The Chicago soya complex closed lower yesterday, led by beans as the market saw a correction after a 6-day move higher which accounted for gains of ~40 cents. Sterling is likely to see an increase in volatility as the Brexit withdrawal bill returns to Parliament to be debated for four days before the vote on Tuesday 15th, in fact less said the better.

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A RARE UP DAY FOR STERLING

Again the mid range proteins are unchanged with Rapemeal having eased a pound today. Despite the Chicago soya market being firmer again yesterday a 1 cent improvement in the strength of Sterling against the US $ means UK Soyameal is actually lower.Chicago wheat was firmer throughout yesterday’s session and especially after a mid-session boost which took the market 7 cents higher.Corn extended Wednesday’s gains as dryness in Brazil and continued chatter over potential Chinese purchases again supported the market.The Chicago soya complex was firmer again yesterday, with beans closing higher for the fourth-straight session.After spending the morning session consolidating the previous day’s losses, making a 16-month low against the euro in the process, Sterling managed to gain some traction yesterday and spent the second half of the day moving steadily higher.

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Markets Open Again But Still In Holiday Mode

: In the UK Maize based prices are unchanged today however following the rise in Chicago yesterday and a lower Sterling Soyameal is coming in at £5 per tonne higher.Chicago wheat futures closed very slightly higher yesterday in the first trading day of 2019 but most grain markets still remained in holiday mode.corn began 2019 on a firmer note, in what continues to be fairly narrow trade.All legs of the Chicago soya complex closed higher to start the year yesterday, helped by concerns over dry weather in Brazil and continued rumours of more Chinese interest in US beans.The pound saw its biggest fall in three weeks yesterday as mounting concerns that the UK may be forced to exit the European Union without a divorce deal rattled the nation’s manufacturers.

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Ag Markets Pretty Flat The Action in Stocks & Oil

UK Rapemeal is unchanged Soyameal is again mixed with some shippers edging higher and some a £1 lower. US Wheat futures were lower for most the day session yesterday but recovered late to finish mostly steady. Corn saw a small bounce on technical trading with spec funds buying 2,500 contracts.The soy complex saw stabilising trade yesterday after Wednesday’s sharp break with futures closing fractionally lower in beans and $.50 higher in meal.It has been a volatile week in global stock markets as concerns grew about a trade dispute between US and China. Oil prices fell on Thursday after rebounding 8% in the previous session, with futures pressured by concerns over a faltering global economy and worries about a glut in crude supply.

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Christmas Market Activity

In some ports UK soya meal is unchanged in others down by £1, Maize Distillers have eased back £$ having climbed strongly before Christmas.It was only really US markets open yesterday, and they were weaker with soybeans down 15 cents, corn down 4 cents and wheat down 5 cents. Stock markets remain very volatile. Between Fri 21st and Mon 24th Dec the Dow Jones fell around 1,100 points. WTI/Brent oil bounced back from the pre-Christmas rout but is lower again

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Steady As We go!

Erith Rape meal has moved up by £2 per tonne and May to July prices are only available on application.Chicago wheat closed lower yesterday, with the market finishing up near the lows of the days.Corn fell back yesterday as the continued absence of China from the US market despite rumours of possible significant purchases added pressure. Chicago soybeans and soymeal closed lower again yesterday, with the market once again responding negatively to confirmation of further soybean sales to China, with the volume deemed disappointing. The US Federal Reserve did raise interests rates by 0.25% in line with expectations. Sterling is edging higher today based on good retail sales growth.

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Deal or No Deal on Both Sides of The Atlantic

Chicago wheat futures closed 5-7 cents higher yesterday, helped by confirmation of the highest prices paid by Egypt’s GASC in almost four years (they bought 120,000MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian wheat at $6 above last week’s tender) Chicago corn closed off the highs off the day yesterday but still in the green, as the market fell-back later in the session, mirroring soybeans. Rumours of Chinese soybean buying fueled partly by the President took the market higher but lack a confirmed volume of business saw it fall back. Theresa May won her vote of confidence and Sterling has steadied and the #Brexit saga staggers on.

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All Is Well In The Commodities Market Not So Sure About Parliament.

UK Prices generally unchanged Soyameal for the Summer £2 lower. Chicago wheat could not find any follow through buying yesterday, as the market finished 4-5 cents lower on the day,corn saw very muted trade yesterday as the market closed steady to fractionally lower.The Chicago soya complex finished mixed in quiet trade yesterday, with beans finishing marginally higher but meal and oil finishing lower.Sterling is still mostly range bound, awaiting the latest Brexit developments. As Theresa May desperately offers concessions to try to get the deal through Parliament, no one is able to predict with any degree of certainty what comes next. Crude oil moved slightly lower in early trade as investors look towards the most highly anticipated OPEC meeting for some time.

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Markets are not showing much movement in any direction.

Rapemeal prices are unchanged in the UK along with most other commodities Soyameal has moved up £1.Chicago wheat was fairly directionless yesterday, eventually closing 1-5 cents lower on the day. The Chicago soya complex ‘see-sawed’ yesterday before all legs closed slightly lower on the day. Once again it was speculation on a US/China agreement that mainly moved the market.Sterling has been pretty range-bound ahead of the vote on December 11th, with many analysts expecting that this will remain the case until we see any meaningful changes to the situation

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UK Soya Prices Lower After Protection Factor is Removed

Despite some early strength, Chicago wheat finished more-or-less unchanged on return from the Thanksgiving holiday on Friday.Corn traded in a narrow range on Friday with futures settling slightly lower on the day.The Chicago soya complex also had a muted return from Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday as all legs finished mostly slightly lower on the day.The main news over the weekend was Theresa May securing an agreement with the EU for a deal that will see Britain leaving the bloc with continued close trade ties. UK Soya prices are several pounds lower today some protection was probably added to prices at the end of the week to guard against any untoward news over the weekend whilst most US traders were away and any last minute Brexit hitches although they may still be to come.

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A Highly Mixed Picture

UK  Rapemeal prices are unchanged today the same is true of Maize Gluten. Maize Distillers however are £2 to £3 higher while Palm Kernel has dropped £3.00. Soyameal has edged up by £1. European Grain markets where strong as both the Euro and Sterling fell against the US currency. CBOT corn eased for a third straight day.The CBOT soy complex once again reacted to political soundbites yesterday as the director of the National Economic Council made conciliatory comments to counteract the very aggressive comments of the Vice President at the weekend. The on off China trade talks are directly effecting the market positively if on negatively if off. In other markets there has been a sharp fall in world Stock markets and crude oil continues to plunge.

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Sterling Recovers in Volatile Trading

UK Rape meal has edged up £2.00 today. Soya meal is also up £2 to £3.Chicago wheat gained around 18 cents to start the week yesterday, ostensibly on weather concerns after an extremely wet weekend in Argentina Corn ended around a cent higher yesterday, pulled in opposite directions by wheat and beans, with no fresh independent input. It was a quiet start to the week for the CBOT soy complex amidst a lack of news with export inspections delayed until today and the weekly crop report not out till after the close tonight.The Pound held near a 10-day low on Monday as the twin forces of a resurgent Dollar and reduced expectations of a Brexit deal fueled a sell-off. In volatile trading, Sterling fell to a 10-day low of 1.2827 against the Dollar as negative headlines over the last 48 hours punctured growing optimism from last week that an agreement between Britain and the European Commission was imminent.However the pound has recovered ground this morning.

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Markets Pause Awaiting Today’s Report.

Nearby UK soya prices have dropped by £3 today but only £1 on 2019 positions. Most other commodities are unchanged.Chicago wheat futures gave back a big share of the previous day’s gains yesterday as traders squared positions ahead of tonight’s WASDE report (out at 5pm).Corn closed slightly lower yesterday, in further range bound trade ahead of tonight’s report. Soybeans fell for the third straight session yesterday, with meal also lower while soybean oil managed some solid gains. The pound rose for a third consecutive day on Wednesday (although its weaker this morning) as markets prepare further for the probability of a Brexit deal to be put before Parliament as early as November 27th.

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Market News

Maize Gluten prices have risen for nearby months but Maize Distillers prices have reduced in Portbury and Liverpool today as has Maize.Chicago wheat made solid gains yesterday, supported by ongoing concerns about US wheat after Monday’s crop update showed plantings 6% behind normal with crop ratings declining.The Chicago soya complex continued to be range bound yesterday, with the market awaiting the results of the mid-term elections in the US as well as tomorrow’s WASDE report.The dollar slipped across the board on Wednesday as the broadly expected U.S. midterms election result of a split Congress raised expectations that any major U.S. fiscal policy boost to the economy is unlikely for now.Sterling was also supported by the view that progress is being made towards a UK Brexit position with regards to the Irish backstop.

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Fireworks might be saved until the end of the week.

UK Rape meal prices have eased by £1 to £2 today. UK Soya also lower.Chicago wheat futures finished slightly lower to start the week yesterday London Wheat is trading at £169.00 for November 18.Chicago corn was higher for most of the day yesterday and managed to finish with some modest gains as weekend rains in areas of the US Midwest checked harvest progress.The soya complex traded in the usual pre-WASDE fashion yesterday as beans, meal and oil all traded in fairly tight ranges. Given Mid term elections results will be with us tomorrow and the report may prove a more volatile end to the week. Sterling dips below $1.30 as hopes of Brexit deals fade than back above as soon as anything positive is rumoured.

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Quiet transition into the new week.

Chicago wheat witnessed a quiet session to end the week on Friday, with the market finishing slightly higher.Chicago soybeans finished higher to end the week on Friday but the products could not follow suit as both meal and oil finished lower on the day. Sterling managed one of its best weekly performances in 2018 last week, aided by optimism for a Brexit deal and after the Bank of England signaled more interest rate hikes could be on the way if Britain’s exit from the European Union is smooth. BofE rates were held at 0.75% and UK prices are mostly unchanged soyameal a little higher as Sterling has dropped back under $1.30

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Sterling Gets a Brexit Boost

The boost to Sterling overnight had helped bring Palm Kernel and Maize Gluten down Distillers also eased slightly.Chicago wheat futures recovered from earlier losses (they were 9-10 cents down at one point early in the session) to close 3/4 cents higher on December and only slightly lower on the deferred contracts.Like wheat, both Chicago soybeans and soymeal managed to recover from earlier losses with both markets ending in the green as some month-end short covering providing support.Sterling has received a boost in the last 24 hours on renewed Brexit optimism.

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And the effect of the Budget… erm?

Despite the US Market being lower last night an overnight increase of $1 for Soyameal combined with a further fall in Sterling has put UK prices up by £1 to £2. We see a drop in US Maize Distillers prices counter to what would be expected considering the FX. UK Rape meal prices are unchanged. It was a quiet start to the week for CBOT Corn which closed fractionally lower.Soybeans tried to rally overnight but were not able to hold the gains after more threats from President Trump to place import duties on all Chinese imports if the Trump/Xi trade talks in Argentina next month do not go well. Despite big promises of increased spending and tax cuts as of next year, Sterling had a tepid response to the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget. This Budget being dependent on a Brexit deal means that the market still has some doubts as to whether the largest giveaway in 8 years will materialize.

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Start The Week

Despite some Sterling weakness we have not seen much change in UK list prices. Soyameal is a £4 higher in Portbury today and other ports will be similar Rapemeal sticks with the crowd and lists as unchanged.Chicago wheat managed sharp gains to end the week on Friday, supported by signs that US wheat is beginning to look export competitive. The rally in the grains markets, especially wheat, pulled soybeans and soymeal higher to end the week but soybean oil could not follow and finished lower. The Pound continued to fall against the Dollar to end the week on Friday, dropping below $1.2800 for the first time since September 5th. Let’s see if Spreadsheet Phil can steady the ship with his Budget this afternoon.

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Stronger US Currency helps to Depress Prices

UK Rapemeal is unchanged today and other mid proteins are again unchanged. UK Soyameal prices are £2 to £3 lower.Chicago wheat fell nearly 10 cents to six-week lows yesterday, pressured by sharp gains in the US dollar. Likewise the Corn price fell due to the dollars strength but also improving weather. Soyameal was also weak due to slow demand and the dollar.The US dollar rose to nine-week highs against a currency basket on Wednesday as the euro slumped on disappointing euro zone data while the pound was pressured lower amid persistent investor anxiety over Brexit.

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Ag Markets Flat as Crude Oil Falls

UK Mid proteins appear unchanged today.Chicago wheat managed a slightly higher close yesterday on another thin news days with most of the focus on slumping equity and crude oil markets.Corn was broadly unchanged.Chicago beans finished slightly lower yesterday but this was still enough to make its lowest close in two weeks while meal finished mixed.Initially rumours of a UK wide customs deal with EU was on offer helped the pound but since then Sterling has slipped back to $1.2950

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Market Report

UK Rapemeal prices are practically unchanged today. Soya is lower by £2 to £5.00. Chicago wheat & corn markets finished lower for a third straight session yesterday as the market reacted to weakness in other ag markets and ignored some fairly constructive export reports. Matif wheat also leaked lower again while London was mixed.The Chicago soya complex fell to sharp losses yesterday, as the market seemed to forget about the US quality issues which carried the market higher on Monday. The pound dropped down close to $1.30 yesterday as Theresa May repeated that the EU’s proposal on the Irish border was unacceptable.

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Breaking News

A case of Mad Cow Disease has been confirmed on an unnamed farm in Aberdeenshire. Strict movement orders are place the animal did not enter the human feed chain.

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Market Report

UK Rapemeal is indicated at £2 per tonne lower today. The recent reduction in Maize Distillers prices had made Maize Gluten prices unrealistic they are £2 lower today too and would probably be biddable.Chicago wheat futures extended the previous days reversal ending 5 to 6 cents lower corn also eased. Chicago Soyameal managed a modest $1 rise. The US dollar was strong after published FED minutes indicated more rate rises in the pipeline. Sterling wobbled as Brexit talks stumble ideas of extended transition zones are considered as grounds to remove PM May by some MPs.

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USDA report and it’s effect

UK Maize prices are lower by £2/£3 today. Soya in the UK is up £2 to £3 per tonne. Rapemeal is unchanged to £1 lower.The USDA report provided a spark to the market, with Chicago wheat trading in a 15 cent range yesterday before closing 2-3 cents lower. corn rallied after the USDA report, eventually closing 6-7 cents higher, with the USDA cutting US yields by 0.6bpa. Chicago soya complex finished higher yesterday (but off the days highs) after the USDA estimated a slightly smaller than expected US bean crop and new crop carry-out.Sterling capitalised on a weaker US dollar and Brexit optimism (BRINO) in the previous session, hitting a 3-month high yesterday. This morning Sterling mostly continues to hold its ground versus the dollar as some media reports have claimed in recent days that Britain is on the brink of a Brexit deal. For further details and figure see our Market News page.

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Sterling Fights Back

Another positive day for Sterling against the US$ may help lower UK prices again today. Notably a £4 reduction in Maize Distillers.Chicago wheat finished lower again yesterday, taking the losses for the week to around 10 cents. European markets were also lower with London and Matif pressured by the strong pound and euro respectively.Chicago corn leaked lower again yesterday, in more pre-USDA report trade.The Chicago soya complex continued to sell-off yesterday as the market looked to be convinced that tonight’s report will provide a bearish outlook for soya. Sterling continued to push higher on Wednesday after European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier signaled progress on a deal with Britain over its withdrawal from the bloc, as well as on the crucial Irish border question.

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Monday’s Reports

Maize Gluten is down by up tp £3 per tonne today but distillers are unchanged. Palm Kernel has eased by £2 over the Winter months. Rapemeal looks unchanged. Strong August export figures took the Chicago market higher on Friday by up to $7.40 on the December 18 position this has translated in an increase in the UK today of about £5.00 per tonne.Chicago wheat finished mostly 3-4 cents higher on Friday, taking its gains for the week to 12 cents. Chicago corn managed to recover into the close on Friday, finishing slightly higher after being as much as five cents lower earlier in the session.Sterling touched a two-month high versus the euro and gained against the dollar on Friday after the European Union’s Brexit negotiators said they believed a divorce deal with Britain was “very close”. which translates as they are expecting our Government to capitulate.

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Market Report

We saw a welcome fall yesterday in Maize Gluten prices with a shipment imminent into Liverpool down £4pt, Maize distillers also fell £2pt. UK Soya prices are broadly unchanged.Chicago wheat traded in a fairly narrow range yesterday before closing mostly 2-3 cents higher, Corn was also 2-3 cents higher.Despite all legs being in the green for most of the session yesterday, late weakness saw beans and oil finish lower while soyameal just about managed to finished higher.Sterling has made a 10-week high versus the euro and a 5-day high against the dollar this morning, thoughts are the EU may be prepared to give a little ground to the UK government and their DUP partners over their intractable Irish border “Red Herring” issue.

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Market Report

We would expect UK Soya to be higher today and we were wrong if anything slightly lower. Rapemeal down by £2, no changes to Maize Gluten or distillers.All legs of the Chicago soya complex finished higher again yesterday, with soybean oil continuing to lead the charge. Chicago wheat futures finished around 10 cents higher yesterday.Chicago corn market managed to make a 4-week high closed around 2 cents higher.The pound is reported to have slid yesterday as a conflict over UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan escalated but this morning we still find it hovering around $1.30 little change really.

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Some Bearish Realities for Soya

The Chicago soya complex had traded in the green for most of Friday’s session on some more short-covering before a bearish stocks number from the USDA eventually sent all legs lower into the close. September 1st US bean stocks were pegged at 438Mbu (11.9MMT) versus the average trade estimate at 401Mbu (10.9MMT), on higher old crop yields and crop size as well as smaller feed, seed and residual use. In fact 2017 bean production was revised higher by 0.52MMT to a record 120MMT but 2018 production should still easily surpass this. The larger carry-in serves to add to the already bearish 2018/19 outlook if the ongoing trade war with China continues. The only way to now avoid a possible 900Mbu (24.5MMT) plus US carry-out in 2018/19 is either a resolution to the trade war or a Brazilian crop disaster. AgRural reports Brazilian bean planting is 4.6% complete, up from 1.9% last week and still above the 5-year average of 2.1%. For the week, beans finished down 0.75 cents, meal finished down $0.4 and oil finished 0.63 cents. After the close on Friday, the CFTC report put spec-fund buying in the week to September 25th at 1.8MMT for beans and 0.4MMT for meal, leaving them 15.6MMT short and 2.1MMT long respectively

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Market Report

Chicago wheat again traded on both sides yesterday before closing lower for the third consecutive session. Chicago corn had another thin trading session yesterday before closing between 1-2 cents higher on the day. The Chicago soya complex closed higher again yesterday, although once again the gains were fairly muted in beans and meal and it was soybean oil which led the gains. Sterling was fairly range-bound yesterday, with little fresh news to move the market. The euro recorded its biggest one-day decline in seven weeks on Thursday as the battle over fiscal policy intensified. Financial markets are nervous that the Italian government’s spending plans will boost Italy’s debt, which is already the second highest in the euro-zone as a share of economic output after Greece, at around 131 percent of gross domestic product.

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Market Update

There is a slight fall today in UK Maize Gluten Prices. and Maize Chicago wheat could not choose which direction to go in yesterday but eventually closed lower.Chicago corn had a fairly muted session yesterday, trading in just a 3 1/2 cent range before closing around a cent down.All legs of the Chicago soy complex finished higher yesterday, with beans leading the way after the USDA announced a sale of 671,900 MT of US soybeans to Mexico.The biggest event yesterday, as expected, was the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25bps.

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Market Report

UK Rape meal down by £2 nearby and £3 November to April.Chicago wheat had a quiet session on Friday, with futures closing moderately lower on the day. Chicago corn closed higher again on Friday, as follow-through buying from Thursday’s rally continued to push the market higher.The Chicago soya complex also had a muted session to end the week on Friday, although meal did slip $5 lower to give back most of the the previous day’s gains. he pound dropped 1.45% on Friday with growing uncertainty on the outcome of Brexit after both sides stated that they were a long way apart in agreeing a deal.

  • Rain in US causing some loca harvest delays, but good progress seen over the weekend and prospects drier for this week
  • The latest round of tariffs come into effect  today on $200 billion of Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of US products
  • Commitment of traders shows managed money reduce their Soya meal long by 8k contracts to 22k through to 18/09 (attached)
  • Early Brazilian bean plantings now underway, AgRural report 1.9% complete
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Market Report

Wheat traded sideways in Chicago yesterday, closing a little higher. Chicago corn was active closing 7 cents higher.The Chicago soya complex managed strong gains yesterday, with heavy fund buying the main driver. US weekly exports were higher than expected.In terms of the US/China dispute, with China unable to go tit-for-tat (or tariff-for-tariff) with the US due to the trade imbalance, China’s strategy is expected to switch to reducing import tariffs on other countries as a way of further excluding the US from trade.Sterling had a mixed day yesterday but still finished higher on the day.

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Market Report

Wheat managed to buck the trend in Chicago yesterday managing a positive close over fears of delays to the Siberian harvest. Corn was caught as was Soya in the general falls caused by further tariffs placed on Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs from the Chinese on US products. Sterling is doing well bouyed by positive noises been made in Europe ahead of the Salzberg dinner tonight.

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Market Report

We see a slight softening of UK Maize prices today.Despite some reports of weekend frost damage in Australia, Chicago futures could not hold on to earlier gains and finished the day around 5 cents lower.Chicago corn was weaker all day yesterday before closing around 4 cents lower.The Chicago soya complex continued to leak lower yesterday, with beans falling to contract lows to start the week. Sterling has advanced amid optimism over prospects for a Brexit deal with the European Union. Talks between the EU and Britain on Brexit are being conducted in a spirit of “good cooperation” Michel Barnier.

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Market Report

The new week starts with lower prices in the UK for Maize Distillers Corn Gluten Palm Kernel and Rapemeal. Chicago wheat managed a firmer close on Friday ending the week unchanged despite the bearish WASDE report corn also managed a modestly positive close.All legs of the Chicago Soya complex closed lower on Friday, with Soya meal showing the most weakness. Pressure on the day came from newswires carrying the story that the US was ready to implement the additional $200 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods, with no  talks in the pipeline.Sterling slipped on Friday but remained on track for its biggest weekly rise since March..

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Market Report

Initial prices shoe a £2 reduction in UK Soyameal today.In the aftermath of Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report grains continued lower, even more so in Europe with both the Sterling and the Euro gaining ground against the US$.Selling continued in the CBOT soy complex yesterday on spillover weakness from Wednesday’s USDA report along with reports of better than expected early yields and a slightly less optimistic view of the possible renewal of talks with China. The US$ held onto weakness this morning from yesterday’s session, pulled lower by disappointing consumer inflation data, which came hot on the heels of weaker than forecast producer prices making an interest rise less likely. It was a good day for Sterling and the GBP is holding above $1.31 this morning.Traders were focusing more on the central bank lifting growth forecasts than the stark warnings that BofE Governor Mark Carney gave on the potential impact of a no deal Brexit on the UK economy.

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Market Report

UK Rapemeal while listed unchanged was trading £3 lower than Tuesdays levels yesterday status unchanged so far today. In the US Both corn and wheat were pressured by an unexpectedly bearish USDA WASDE report yesterday. The figures for Soya were also bearish however renewed optimism by the intended resumption of US/China trade talks allowed the markets to close in positive territory.Crude Oil is higher today on fears that pipelines maybe damaged by hurricane Florence sterling is still hanging on above $1.30 there is data from the BofE and US CPI data today that will indicate if the the Federal Reserve needs to action more interest rate rises.

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Market Report

Today we see a marked reduction in US Maize Distillers Palm Kernel prices and a small £1 of Maize in the UK.US Corn markets ended unchanged despite a strong day for Wheat markets in the US Europe and LIFFE in London supported by expectations of only 25 MMT of Russian wheat exports this season in comparison to a previous forecast of 35 MMT and 42 MMT last year. US Soya meal and beans moved higher news of frost damage to beans in China and the belief that Brazil is exporting her way out her bean stocks suggest US beans will eventually be needed to fill a gap. Sterling had a good day yesterday and remains above $1.30 this morning good GDP data and positive noises from Brussels about Brexit helped.

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Market Report

There has been a modest increase in Rape meal prices in the UK today. Chicago Wheat Corn and Soya saw falls yesterday in the UK prices are unchanged as Sterling is still under pressure from a strong US dollar. Despite the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up to 54.4 from a downward revised 54.3 in May, beating the consensus of 54.0 in a Reuters poll of economists and above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Sterling remains hamstrung by Brexit uncertainty perhaps the Prime Minister will lead her cabinet the currency to the sunlit uplands of a clean Brexit on Friday but don’t hold your breath.

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Synopsis

The worsening trade dispute between the US and China has reduced risk appetite causing money to flow into the US currency making Sterling and the Euro look weaker. Wheat Corn & Soya fell by almost the daily limit yesterday however later in the session they recovered and have continued to do so over night as the war of words between the two super powers has calmed down.

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Update

Rapemeal price in the UK are lower by £1. Chicago wheat closed more or less unchanged after an active trading day Corn futures ended only slightly higher. Bullish noises from President Trump about the massive quantities of US Ag products China would be buying gave strong support to soybeans in particular. Sterling has moved higher against the US $ and is now in the $1.346 area about half a cent stronger. Inflation and GDP data is expected in the UK later this week which will indicate if there is any liklihood of a rate rise this year.

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USDA WASDE Outcome

UK Rapemeal is £2 PT lower today. The USDA figures were considered slightly bearish for wheat.The news for Soya beans & meal did take the market higher but if fell back off its highs and continued to fall overnight as all the figures were digested. A lack lustre UK economic performance left Mark Carney & the BofE Sterling is treading water as we await the BofE to delay another interest rate rise.This had become expected and so Sterling has held up quite well.

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Soya & Corn March on Wheat & the Dollar Fall Back

Chicago wheat fell for a second straight day yesterday, as funds continued to sell following Tuesday’s highs.Corn inched higher yesterday, still allowing the March contract to make fresh contract highs. Despite some overnight weakness, Chicago soybeans and Soya meal again closed in the green yesterday, with beans making new 2-month highs and Soya meal making new highs.The main economic news came out of the US yesterday, with headline and core CPI coming in stronger than expected. this boosted the dollar but the greenback was then undermined by a much weaker than expected US Retail Sales report for January.

Overnight Grain Markets are mixed to unchanged.  Greatful respite after several straight days of rises. Yesterday the lead analyst at the Rosario Grains Exchange,Emlice Terre said that Argentina could harvest fewer than 50 MMT of soybeans in the 2017-18 crop year. They were hoping for 52 MMT down from 57 MMT last year.

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Mark Carney Says Something Positive.

Corn futures saw most contracts steady to fractionally lower yesterday. Pressure from wheat and month end profit taking was offset by positive export news.Soybean futures finished the Wednesday session with most contracts 2 to 4 3/4 cents lower. Meal futures were down $2.70/ton, with nearby soy oil 1 point in the red. Sterling saw gains against the US$ yesterday, after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney made the case for a UK economic revival in 2019.

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Sterling Falls Back as UK Backbone is Tested & Grains Continue to Rally

Chicago wheat continued its rally yesterday, hitting ten-week highs before closing around 8 cents higher as funds continued to cover shorts.All legs of the Chicago Soya complex ended higher to start the week yesterday, but off the days highs with soybeans running out of steam around $10 on the March contract. Soymeal rallied to near $5 gains but ended up only $2 higher. Sterling fell back below $1.40 this morning battered by panic over bully boy EU tactics the House of Lords warnings that fundamental flaws in the “Withdrawal Bill.” They probably mean the word, “Withdrawal” & the intention to follow the democratic will of the people.Plus three leaked civil service models saying basically the only good thing the UK can do is stay in the EU or as close as possible and make the people suck it up from their unelected Brussels overlords.

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Grain Markets Steady but Sterling Out Performs Again

Chicago wheat managed some decent gains yesterday and in the process halted a three-day losing streak.Chicago corn hit 2-week highs yesterday, as funds covered some of their large shorts. Chicago soybeans and soyameal managed to reverse earlier losses to close in the green yesterday, with soyameal reaching one-month highs. Hopes that UK wage growth could accelerate in 2018 bolstered Sterling exchange rates and pushed GBP/EUR 0.5% higher. Higher wages are inflationary and the Bank of England will therefore most likely need to respond by raising interest rates.

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Sterling Steals The Show.

.Chicago wheat futures closed sharply lower on Friday, on the back of a bearish USDA report. Corn also closed lower on Friday as the USDA report came in mostly negative.Chicago soybeans and soya meal both managed to close in the green on Friday night, despite what looked to be a mostly bearish WASDE report. Sterling rocketed to its highest level against the dollar since the vote to leave the EU on Friday, after a report that the Netherlands and Spain were open to a deal for Britain to remain as close as possible to the trading bloc.

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Report

27.12.17:

Grain futures closed mixed today, a finish that was positive for corn and wheat but negative for soybean’s attempt to extend Tuesday’s gains. While a smattering of export news emerged, most of the focus remains on weather from one end of the Americas to the other.

Outside markets were also mixed. While many investors would like to take the week off between Christmas and New Year’s Day, passage of tax reforms has many accountants and analysts reworking spreadsheets to determine last-minute positioning.

While stocks soared to records around the world in 2017, commodities generally languished. That’s prompting some to take a second look at crops, livestock and metals in hopes for a turnaround.

Crude oil backed off from its test of $60, but diesel prices added to yesterday’s gains, getting a kick from increased heating demand spurred by this week’s frigid temperatures and cold forecasts into January.

Corn prices edged a penny higher today to $3.5375, gaining strength from wheat after breaking out of a narrow trading range overnight.

March futures held a test of the 25-day moving average to maintain an uptrend off last week’s lows. That rally could be put to the test Thursday, with resistance a penny above today’s highs at $3.5525.

Buying continues to come mostly from fund short-covering, with position-squaring ahead of year-end also a factor. Index fund rebalancing kicks off the second week in 2018, though investors could trim corn holdings unless a broad-based return to commodities lifts all boats.

Ethanol futures reversed higher today, posting gains despite the profit taking in crude oil. Prices sold off last week on another strong week of production. The government reports last week’s totals on Thursday, following more slippage in margins at Midwest plants.

Volume remains thin, though today’s initial total of 114,245 was 8% higher than Tuesday’s final figure.

Soybeans reversed lower today, failing to hold gains from an overnight rally. Still, January held above the gap created Tuesday on its chart at $9.52, finishing at $9.555, down 3.75 cents.
Futures followed vegetable oil prices higher in Asia, but couldn’t hold that momentum on the morning open in Chicago, quickly slipping into the red.

The weak start came despite some positive export news. USDA reported the sale of another 4 million bushels of 2017 crop soybeans to China under its daily reporting system for large purchases. The U.S. continues to face intense competition from Brazil, which is still selling its record 2016-2017 crop and benefits from higher protein levels.

Forecasts remain hot and mostly dry for fields in Argentina, where temperatures will top 100 degrees at times during the next week. Yet rains earlier in December improved prospects for planting, the story that captured traders’ attention today. Rains continue to bolster yield prospects in Brazil, further marginalizing the Argentine problems.

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Corn and soybean prices stumble, while wheat finds some footing

Better-than-expected export news helped firm faltering wheat prices, while mediocre corn results kept prices mostly flat in Thursday’s session. Soybean exports were also unexceptional – throw in some additional rain in the forecast for Argentina, and it was a recipe for double-digit losses.

 

La Niña conditions continued to strengthen this past month, fueled by below-average sea surface temperatures in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean. NOAA now says La Niña is likely to stay throughout the winter, with odds of that happening now exceeding 80%. Click here to learn more about possible implications for agriculture, especially if conditions persist into next spring and summer.

As the potential tax bill gets nearer to a vote, lawmakers are ironing out proposed differences in the bill’s child tax credit. The U.S. economy saw retail sales up and jobless claims down in November. Stocks buckled, however, after the FCC ruled it will ditch net neutrality rules. The Dow was down 83 points in early afternoon trading, to 24,563. Energy prices were mixed but mostly higher, anchored by nearly 2% gains for gasoline. The U.S. Dollar also firmed slightly, as did gold and copper prices.

 

Corn prices made minor downward adjustments on lighter-than-expected export volume and large global stocks. December and March futures were each down half a penny to close at $3.3625 and $3.4850, respectively.

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Chicago wheat yesterday lost another couple cents, with the USDA report failing to provide any support to the market.corn was also slightly weaker at the close, despite the USDA lowering the US carry-out by a larger number than expected.The Chicago soya complex was slightly weaker for most of the day before selling off into the close after a USDA report that brought few significant changes, especially bullish ones. Sterling could not build on a rally yesterday started by higher than expected inflation figures. It was deemed the core situation is unchanged and that inflation has peaked and so interest rate rises seem far off.

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11.12.17: Chicago wheat futures fell for a fifth straight session on Friday.Corn ended the day with some small gains, helped by some light short-covering by the funds. Soybean prices fell to one-week lows on Friday,Soya meal closed lower on Friday and has added to losses so far today in overnight trading slumping up to $7 in some positions.Sterling fell on Friday, trading almost two U.S. cents below a high reached earlier after a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations, with cautious investors booking profits after a sharp rally in recent days..

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Market Breifing: La Nina Takes Hold.

Corn prices overcame some early morning volatility yesterday, trading in a narrow range from mid morning to close, and finishing close to unchanged.Wheat prices are back near contract lows, as technical trading and big global supplies applied downward pressure once again.La Niña conditions have contributed to some drier conditions in South America, which helped push soybeans into double-digit gains, as planting is being delayed with January contracts finishing north of $10 for the first time since mid-October. Meal and oil were also firmer meal was $10 including overnight trading.Sterling dipped after a report of a failed plot to kill Theresa May. In regards to Brexit negotiations, Downing Street still could not say when the Prime Minister would next be in Belgium.

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Milk Prices

Phew!Milk prices have held up for 2017,with no reductions this month. It’s a
minor miracle, but it isn’t going to last.The pressure is on prices due to falling
butter revenues and a floor less SMP price which, combined, are returning 25
to 26p. That’s around 6p lower than some commodity processors are paying,
and isn’t sustainable.
Cheese and cream prices are holding up,thankfully -­‐ but only due to the time of
year and the seasonal boost to demandthat Christmas brings.
Again it won’t last and come Januarydemand drops away. Cream prices
nearly always fall in the New Year andconsumers rush into their new year
resolution diet fads. Generally speaking,they ditch cheddar cheese for cottage
cheese and the cheddar price also dips.Milk volumes are also ramping up here
and across Europe due to high prices andthe record high Milk Price:Feed Price
ratio. No processor is short of milk. Thebuyers know this, and it’s adding to the
generalnegativepressureandsentimentin the market.

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Rapemeal Rising Rapidly

Cargill have increased their Rapemeal prices in Hull & Liverpool today by £5.00 per tonne. ADM at Erith are reluctant to put out prices today.

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Synopsis

Chicago wheat closed markedly lower yesterday and it was not alone in world wheat markets, with uncertainty over Egypt’s import criteria again providing pressure. Corn reverted to the form of the last few months yesterday, trading in a 2 cent range before ending the day half a cent higher. The Chicago soya complex bounced back yesterday, spending the whole day in the green. Soybean oil was lagging beans and meal but a more bullish NOPA crush report saw oil surge higher into the close.Sterling was broadly unchanged yesterday, perhaps a touch lower. Crude is slipping back from recent highs. UK Rape crushers are Price on application only for nearby positions following the recent leap.

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Market Breifing.

Chicago wheat finished slightly lower again yesterday, with prices struggling for much impetus as fresh news was again lacking.. Chicago corn traded in a 2 1/2 cent range yesterday before closing more-or-less unchanged to start the week.It was a dull start to the week for the Chicago Soya complex yesterday with soybean and soybean oil closing lower but Soya meal just about managing to close in the green.Sterling hit a four-week high against the Euro yesterday, bolstered by the view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade this week.

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USDA Changes Yield Predictions For Soya (As the cat enters the pigeon loft)

We are yet to see the effect on UK prices of the $11.5 to $8.9 surge of Chicago meal yesterday on UK Soya & rapemeal prices but it will be up.Chicago wheat closed lower yesterday for the fourth straight session, falling to six-week lows, as the USDA report confirmed record global wheat stocks. Chicago corn managed some small gains yesterday, mostly following in the wake of soybeans despite an overall bearish WASDE report. Soybeans and soymeal rallied impressively yesterday after a more more bullish than expected USDA report. Beans touched 11-week highs, in the process breaking a four year downtrend, while meal managed to reach 12-week highs.The pound had a rollers coaster day tumbling as Brexit talks were described as deadlocked and than rallying as the Handelsblatt newspaper said that the EU could offer Britain a two-year transitional Brexit deal if the UK settles the divorce bill.

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Market Synopsis

Rapemeal and Soya are broadly unchanged din the UK today.Chicago wheat closed lower for the third straight session to touch one-month lows yesterday, pressured by continued rains in the US Plains which will improve soil moisture. Chicago corn fell to its lowest level since last month’s USDA report, in a fairly quiet day heading into tonight’s report which is expected to again confirm big global corn stocks.Chicago soybeans and Soymeal finished slightly lower yesterday, in traditionally quiet pre-report day trade.Sterling steadied yesterday, holding just above the one-month hit earlier in the week as investors grew concerned on whether entrenched expectations of higher UK interest rates were reasonable given a backdrop of Brexit uncertainty.

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