Rapemeal Prices

So far today U.K Rapemeal is unchanged from yesterday but European Markets are trading higher on nearby months

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Latest Crop Report Downgrades Soybeans.

The latest crop conditions report puts soybean conditions at 62% good/excellent. Down 2% in a week 9% lower than this time last year.Conditions fell the most in Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina (down 5% good/excellent), Nebraska and Illinois (down 4% good/excellent) and Kansas (down 3% good/excellent). Conditions improved in Louisiana (up 2% good/excellent) and Minnesota (up 1% good/excellent). However despite conditions dropping and all the adverse weather talk, reports suggest that there hasn’t been much of a negative impact on yield models just yet, which could imply that good yield potential in the East portion of the Midwest is offsetting the poor.

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Silage Additive

FARM SILE – Biological silage additive. Delivered in sachets. £58.00 / sachet. (1 sachet / 100 tonnes)

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Caustic Soda

Currently we have a few pallets left in stock however, it remains scarce & expensive because China is buying all available product.

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Palm Kernel

Today – Palm kernel up £2/t on poor supply.

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Wheatfeed pellets now at £100/t

Wheatfeed pellets are now trading at £100/t tonne ex mill.

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Spot pig prices strong

Spot prices are currently at £1.73

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eCBOT

The overnight trading electronic trading market is trading $2 to $2.8 higher partly reversing the $6.3 to $7.8 fall of CBOT Soyameal yesterday.

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Soya drops on Brazilian Farmer selling

The Brazilian currency is falling and farmers are selling as much as they can before the Real drops further.

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Rape prices down £2

UK Rape prices dropped £2 overnight to spot £177.50

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Lower Chicago & Strong Pound

Lower Chicago Soyameal  & a stronger pound aganist the dollar have produced a £5 drop in UK Hi Pro Soyameal prices.

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UK Pigs still in short supply

Supply of UK pigs is still behind demand with prices hitting £1.64/kg.

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UK Rapeseed Meal

Moved up again today, now well into the £200’s.

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Wheat Gluten

In Teignmouth is very tight awaiting the next shipment.

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UK pig prices remain strong

British pig numbers remain tight, spot prices are up 4p to £1.51

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Corn Versus Soya

There has been speculation that US Farmers intend to use Corn acres to plant Soya beans this season. However suggestions are the market may well become volatile at the end of the week if you believe this quote from agrimoney.com

“For Thursday and Friday bring a key event for investors in the first official forecasts, that really count, for 2017-18 US crop prospects – which in turn have a big say in the outlook for prices worldwide.

Sure, the US Department of Agriculture in November unveiled initial estimates for 2017-18 (and beyond) within its long-term “baseline” forecasts.

But the statistics revealed at this week’s annual USDA Outlook Forum take the data from somewhere near the back of the envelope to good working assumptions.”

For what it is worth even when US Farmers intend to go for corn they often end up planting soya as that plants planting window end later so I think we are looking at a big Soya crop worldwide.

 

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WASDE Report changes only effect Wheat

The soy complex in Chicago finished on the defensive yesterday with March beans settling down 8¼ cents and meal closing down $2.80 with oil futures finished practically unchanged. The WASDE report was not much of an event, as USDA made no alterations in their bean, meal and oil balance sheets.The USDA’s wheat numbers provided some surprises and a market reaction to yesterday’s report with futures ending up 8-12¢. US Wheat exports were unexpectedly raised by 1.36 MMT to 27.9 MMT. Corn closed 1-2¢ lower following the USDA report which held a few surprises on both sides. US ethanol demand was raised 25 Mbu. The US$ rallied after Trump said he would release details of a “phenomenal” tax-cut plan.Investors are keeping a wary eye on events in Europe, where a fresh debt crisis might be brewing in Greece after the IMF warned the targets prescribed for it to qualify for European bailout cash are unrealistic.

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Round up

Chicago beans rallied to 2-week highs there were reports of Chinese buying ahead of the USDA export sales report today soyameal closed $5.3 higher nearby declining to $2.3 higher for new crop. UK Rapemeal has eased slightly today. U.S Wheat & Corn were marginally higher as some protection was sort ahead of the WASDE figures.Despite Euronext wheat rallying to a 4-week high on potential exports, UK wheat could not follow the move. May-17 LIFFE wheat ended lower for a fourth day in a row, the longest losing streak since the end of November. GBP held above $1.25 as warnings about the economic impact of Brexit failed to reverse the positive effect of suggestions the economy could sustain interest rate rises.

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Market Synopsis

Funds were active in the Chicago soy complex yesterday, buying an estimated 6000 contracts of both soybeans and soymeal yesterday to push the market higher, despite Brazilian crop estimates especially continuing to creep higher.Chicago wheat managed some decent gains yesterday, mostly supported by some fund-buying, with fresh fundamental news lacking.corn managed gains of around 5 cents yesterday, bringing it to the top of the 7-month trading range, as funds stepped in to do some buying. Today we will get the latest production estimate from the US ethanol industry, which should continue to show strong production .Sterling bounced back late yesterday, driven chiefly by junior Brexit minister David Jones saying parliament would be given a “meaningful” vote on the final deal to leave the EU. Bank of England’s Kristin Forbes added to support by saying they should raise interest rates soon if growth remains solid and inflation continues to accelerate. Rapemeal has eased by £1 even as Matif Rapseed strengthened due to Sterling strength against the Euro.

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Corn, soybeans slip, wheat inches higher

Corn, soybeans and wheat futures moved in narrow ranges on Thursday as the market consolidated after Wednesday’s more significant gains. While the weekly exports were as expected or better than expected they were not enough to generate much excitement from buyers or sellers.

Outside markets offered little guidance with Wall Street up about 40 points when the crops closed, crude oil down 22 cents, gold higher and the dollar hovering near unchanged.

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Sterling confused by Supreme Court Decision

Brexit news dominated headlines yesterday after the UK Supreme Court ruled that the government must go through Parliament before Article 50 can be activated. However, in positive news for Brexiteers the court also ruled that the devolved Scottish, Welsh and N. Ireland assemblies cannot halt the process. UK Secretary of State for Exiting the EU David Davis said the government would present such legislation “within days” and activation of the formal Brexit processes by the end of March 2017 still looks likely. The decision overall was seen as clearing the way for Prime Minister Theresa May to get on with launching Brexit talks as it looks like she will have enough votes to get it through. Sterling did experience some intra-day volatility, initially falling on the Court announcement but then reaching a 5-week high against the dollar later in the day.

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USDA Take Markets by Surprise

USDA surprised Chicago Traders  yesterday reducing carry out, acres planted and expected 2017 yield for Soya Corn & Wheat. Soyameal soared  up to $13.50 Wheat was up 7.4 cents Corn a more muted 1.4 cents per bushel. UK Rapemeal has responded by rising  £5.00 per tonne.

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Pig Prices still strong

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Out for Dairy Prices 2017

Dairy commodity prices recovered in 2016 – and how – as the market slump of the previous two years at last put the brakes on output.The recovery was also helped by renewed interest by Chinese buyers, after inventories run up during a 2013-14 buying spree eroded.Prices, as measured by the GlobalDairyTrade index, rebounded by 47%, making dairy one of the strongest markets of the year – albeit the index remained well below a 2013 peak.But will values continue in 2017 to track towards that high? Or will higher prices boost output and stem the recovery?

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EU Soft Wheat Harvest

Strategie Grains pegged next year’s EU soft wheat harvest at 152.9MMT, representing an 8MMT increase from this year’s harvest.

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A Financial Market Report You Won’t Get On The BBC

It was a quiet day in currency markets yesterday, mostly due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Sterling is heading for its strongest monthly performance in eight years in both index terms and against the euro, hitting a nine-week high against a basket of currencies yesterday. The move higher against the euro has been particularly pronounced, with investors seemingly shifting their focus from political risks in the UK to risks in Europe. Italy faces a constitutional referendum in just over a week’s time while there are worries over the outcome of both the French and German elections next year. Yesterday a Presidential candidate in Austria also said he may call for a vote on the country’s continued EU membership if he is voted in.

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Morning Report 23.11.16

Chicago soybeans finished higher for a fourth straight session yesterday, hitting their highest level since mid-July in the process, as funds continued to be active. Soymeal managed four-week highs. The main news of day was bearish for U.S beans with China buying in South America but reality has always only ever been an option.Chicago wheat finished lower in the nearby but slightly higher further forward in another day lacking in fresh news input. Corn closed with marginal gains yesterday, despite funds buying a reported 6000 contracts on the day, with fresh news limited and corn mostly following soybeans.The US Dollar steadied near a 14-year high yesterday, still bolstered by President-Elect Donald Trump’s plans for fiscal stimulus – which may drive the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

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Market Synopsis

The Chicago soy complex finished in positive territory yesterday, supported by a big monthly US crush report as well as further reports of export sales.Wheat closed higher on Tuesday, recouping some but not all of Monday’s losses, with continued dryness and above normal temperatures in the US Plains providing support.Corn was also higher yesterday on bargain-buying as well as spillover strength from a 5% climb in crude oil futures which should feed through into better ethanol prices. The pound fell for a second day versus the dollar yesterday, pressured by a leaked memo, probably a frabrication, which suggested there was no clear government plan for Brexit. Inflation proved to be lower than feared reducing the chance of any interest rise.Google announced that they too will remain committed to the U.K which helped steady Sterling.

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Is The Trump Effect Over ?

Yesterday saw large losses for grains across the board as CBOT digested a bearish WASDE report & tried to come to terms with the election outcome. Sterling rose to $1.24 but overnight trading has reversed all the losses and actually taken markets higher so that in the UK we will see commodity price rises today.

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Surprise Figures Sends Grains Tumbling.

Corn and soybean futures lurched lower, dragging wheat lower too, after the US lifted its forecasts for domestic harvests of both crops to record highs above investors’ expectations, cautioning over soy crushing prospects too.

Grain futures, which had largely recovered from losses incurred after Donald Trump’s victory in US presidential elections, fell back solidly into negative territory on surprise at the extent of the upgrades by the US Department of Agriculture to its hopes for domestic crops.

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Wheat Gluten

Wheat Gluten in Teignmouth has run out. We are awaiting an eta of the next vessel.

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U.K Plantings

AHDB estimate this season’s UK wheat area falling 1% to 1.8Mha, partly reflecting problems in controlling black grass, a weed that is now found on about 60% of arable land. The winter barley area was forecast to fall 9% to 397,000ha with spring barley sowing seen 17% higher at 799,000ha. Britain’s rapeseed area for the 2017 harvest is forecast to fall to a 13-year low. The survey put Britain’s rapeseed area at 557,000ha, down 4% from the prior season as problems with cabbage stem flea beetle curbs plantings in the east of England. If realised, this would be the lowest area planted to OSR in the UK since 2004.

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Market Roundup

U.K rapemeal lower by £2.00 today.The Chicago soy complex was fairly inactive yesterday, finishing only slightly higher despite another big week of exports.Chicago wheat closed lower yesterday, on the back of a disappointing weekly US export sales number as well as the decision by the Egyptian Central Bank to float their currency.Corn finished slightly higher yesterday, with news mostly limited to an encouraging weekly export sales report.Sterling had a big day yesterday, managing to rally above $1.24 and move 3 cents above where it opened the week. The rally reflected a combination of the UK High Court ruling that only Parliament can trigger Article 50 and the Bank of England leaving interest rates unchanged and Mark Carney hinting at possible rises to curb inflation.

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Markets on Friday in Breif

Chicago soybeans & soymeal closed lower on Friday mainly due to end of week profit taking but soyoil did finish higher supported by gains in the Malaysian Palm Oil price.Chicago Wheat also closed lower on Friday again profit taking was involved as funds sold 2500 contracts. Chicago Corn was also lower on Friday on some profit taking as funds sold 4000 contracts.Sterling hit an eight day low against the Euro on Friday, after Northern Ireland’s High Court ruled that the law of the province did not restrict the British Prime Minister’s ability to trigger an exit from the European Union. Suggesting that currency traders think that the pound will go up if the country actually breaks up as long as some part of it remains in  E.U.

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Bullish Momemntum Developing

Soybeans charged to a two-month high and topped $10 for the first time since early September amid several bullish market factors that included higher vegetable oil markets overseas, a weather-delayed canola harvest, and optimism for more export business.

Those gains pulled corn and wheat higher, with wheat getting added support from ongoing concerns about dry conditions in the Plains and from Egypt paying a higher price for wheat. In outside markets, the dollar is lower for the second day, but retains much of its recent gains.

The corn and soybean harvests may be delayed a few days in the Midwest as rain moves through. The weekend should be dry, but more rain is forecast there next week.

Equities are higher, with the Dow industrials up about 25 points. Crude oil was about 85 cents lower as failed efforts to cut global production outweighed support from a drop in weekly stocks.

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Roundup for October 24th

Corn weighed down by harvest; wheat falls

Soybeans closed at about a seven-week high and above key moving averages following gains in vegetable oil markets and better-than-expected export shipments.

Corn closed a few cents lower amid the ongoing harvest and after USDA report a decline in weekly export shipments. Wheat markets were lower after a 47% drop in export shipments.

A dry weekend in the Midwest plus a dry Monday had farmers rushing to finish corn and soybean harvests before rain arrives at midweek. Forecasts have rain arriving late on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 29-Nov.2) puts rain across the northern half of the Midwest. It also has above-normal temperatures for much of the country.

The dollar is higher again and near an eight-month high as expectations increase for a rate hike late this year. Equities are higher, with the Dow industrials up about 82 points when the crops closed, following better-than-expected earnings and merger activity. Crude oil is about 28 cents lower and gold is about $ an ounce lower.

Exports – USDA, Reuters

-Weekly export inspections: corn 21.3 million bushels vs 34.6 million prior week, soybeans 100.7 million vs 92.2 million, wheat 9 million vs 17.1 million.

-Egypt tendered for an undisclosed amount of wheat from a number of suppliers, including the U.S., after the crop markets closed. Results are expected on Tuesday.

Corn

Corn finished about four cents lower and at a one week low following active weekend harvesting and after USDA’s weekly export inspections of 21.3 million bushels missed trade forecasts and were down from the prior week.

Harvesting should remain active today and tomorrow before the rain arrives late on Tuesday and continues Wednesday. Hedge selling in the futures was likely as farmers are selling newly harvested corn and holding onto their beans, grain dealers said.

Ethanol futures rose early to a four-month high but fell sharply to trade a little lower when the crops closed.

The CBOT estimated Monday’s corn futures volume at 221,581 compared with Friday’s actual of 190,076. Open interest on Thursday decreased by 1,682 and that included a decrease of 11,117 in December and increase of 4,985 in March.

December corn closed down 4-1/4 at $3.48-1/4 per bushel and March down 4-1/4 at $3.58.

What to Look For: Last week’s market rally prompted hedge selling of harvested corn even as cash prices remain shy of profitable levels. Trade forecasts put corn harvest at about 60% done in USDA’s crop progress due later today.

Soybeans

Soybeans closed higher and about a seven-week high following the bullish export shipments and higher vegetable oil markets.

Soybean oil futures set contract highs in a number of months helped by more gains in palm oil and canola. Declining production due to adverse weather in Asia has supported palm oil prices, while wet fields and approaching winter could reduce Canada’s canola harvest. Canola futures are at a four-month high in Winnipeg trading.

Today’s soybean export inspections of 100.9 million bushels were up from a week ago and topped trade forecasts. China easily took the majority of that amount.

The gains came despite reports of good yields from the Midwest harvest and reports that a few elevators are piling soybeans outside as grain bins are full.

The lead November continues to lose open interest as traders move positions to deferred months. The contract closed above the 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. The RSI is about 61 on technical charts, where 70 is considered overbought.

The CBOT estimated soybean futures volume for Monday at 364,613 compared with Friday’s actual volume of 229,057. Open interest on Friday decreased by 54,522 and included a decrease of 71,762 in November and an increase of 12,983 in January.

November soybeans closed up 9 at $9.92 and January up 10 at $10.02.25.

What to Look For – Farmers are harvesting a big crop and the dry weather forecasts should keep combines in the fields. Harvest progress is expected at about 75% in this afternoon’s weekly progress report.

Wheat

Winter wheat closed lower and at a one-week low following disappointing weekly export shipments. The soft red winter market closed under key moving averages while Kansas City’s hard red winter bottomed at the 20-day’s $4.13-3/4.

Wheat continues to be a follower now that the U.S. harvests are done and in the bins. The lower export shipments added to a bearish view. However, year-to-date shipments are up 27% from a year ago.

After the close, Egypt announced a new tender to buy an undisclosed amount of wheat for Dec. 1-10 shipment. Results are expected late on Tuesday. As with previous tenders, the wheat can be from a number of suppliers including the United States. The U.S. wheat can be soft white or soft red winter. Egypt has favored Black Sea origins in recent tenders.

The 6- to 10-day outlook favors dry conditions for the central and southern Plains. While the winter wheat is doing well, some talk has developed about dry conditions in the region. Analysts have a wide range of estimates for winter wheat’s condition – 50% to 68% good/excellent –in USDA first condition rating of the season later today.

Rain moves through Brazil this week where wheat harvest is under way. Southeast Australia’s wheat harvest should have some light showers. Southwest Russia, where wheat is being planted, may receive rain this week while eastern Ukraine looks dry.

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Market Round UP

UK rapemeal easier by £1 per tonne today. All legs of the Chicago soy complex closed higher yesterday, with beans and oil especially firm and meal following suit, overnight markets have soyameal firmer between $0.30 & $1.80.Chicago wheat futures continued their firmer tone to start the week yesterday and are firmer overnight by 0.6 & 2.4 cents per bushel.Chicago corn closed mixed yesterday, being supported mostly by a rally in the soybean market, but are firmer overnight by 0.2 to 3.2 cents.GBP/USD was mostly weaker yesterday but managed to move higher in late evening/early morning currently trading just under $1.23.Crude oil was mostly lower yesterday as Libya, Nigeria & Iran all increased production.

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Market Round Up.

UK Rape meal prices are unchanged today.The Chicago soy complex finished mixed on Friday, with beans and oil higher (oil especially so) but meal closing lower. The overnight market has all soy products in positive territory with meal having regained most of Fridays losses.Chicago wheat futures closed higher again on Friday, as focus continued to be on the demand side of the global s&d picture. That direction continued overnight in a more muted fashion.Corn also
closed higher on Friday and is a further 1.6 to 2.2 cents up overnight.Sterling slipped 0.3 percent to $1.2138 early on Friday but spend most of the day around $1.22. Currently trading at $1.2151 & E1.1049 as Brexit fears still abound.

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Attention turns back to harvest

Corn, soy beans and wheat futures closed lower on Wednesday as USDA again confirmed that farmers will be harvesting record large corn and soy bean crops this fall.

Crop numbers in the monthly report were close to forecasts, with corn production trimmed slightly from September to 15.06 billion bushels and soybeans raised to nearly 4.27 billion bushels from September’s 4.2 billion. Both amounts would be records if realized.

Wheat markets appeared to succumb to pressure from the lower corn and soybeans as the USDA report offered lacked surprising data for that crop.

Farmers harvesting Midwest corn and soybeans will likely dodge rain today but should have dry weather on Thursday. More rain arrives in Iowa on Friday. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 17-21) has more rain for the Midwest and above-normal temperatures for most of the country.

In other markets, Wall Street’s Dow Jones industrial average was up about 43 points shortly after the crops closed to recover a portion of the previous day’s big losses. Crude oil was down about 60 cents a barrel when the crops closed. The dollar sped to a seven-month high.

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Reliably Unreliable Grain Numbers.

Grain markets are becoming more vulnerable to “price shocks” – and even to witnessing another Great Grain Robbery – thanks to the growing stranglehold of countries on which ag investors find difficult to find accurate data.

The decrease in the grip of Canada and US on world wheat exports – their combined market share has fallen from 70% to 30% since 1972 – has meant a reduced amount of trade covered by countries with a strong record of offering detailed data over crop production and demand, the AHDB’s Jack Watts.

Instead, trade has switched in many cases to nations which offer less insight into their grain dynamics, meaning traders have less information on which to base prices.

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There’s a surfeit of Wheatfeed

Today Wheatfeed is offered at £108 ex Mill, but they’d do it for less if you have an interest.

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Soya Hulls

Soya hulls are in short supply in the south of the country. Not available at all in some ports

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GBP settling

The pound has settled back to where it was yesterday following the overnight “Flash Crash” blip.

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Sterling Under Renewed Pressure

Sterling has fallen to $1.2636 and is currently trading against the Euro at £1.1302. While this is great news for our Agri exports unfortunately your straights feed prices will have risen since this mornings posting.

 

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British pork is now bargain of the decade…

high-welfare and cheaper than imported

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The price in sterling has increased 48% since the January low.

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Lets shed a Little Light.

“However into the second half of the session fund activity was a feature as they looked to defend their long positions, which were established at higher levels. ”
The above sentence is taken from our market report, lets unpack it. It means that despite a bearish scenario for Soya products the funds are long and wrong. Trade is thin so if they throw money at the market at the right time they can force it back up and save their bacon. The problem they do this until the bearish phase is over and so actual bullish news comes in. This basically reduces the opportunity for consumers, that’s you guys, to buy forward at the true market low.

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Bears Should Be Happy

Chicago soybeans closed lower again yesterday. Soymeal was in fact the biggest loser in percentage terms, pressured by poor demand.Chicago wheat was lower to start the week, closing below $4 on the nearby month and making its weakest close since the start of the month.Corn fell to its lowest levels in almost four weeks yesterday, pressured by the ongoing harvest as well as a more open weather forecast for the US Midwest.Sterling fell to new five-week lows against both the dollar and the euro yesterday as Brexit worries continued to hang over the market.

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US Soybean Exports Race Ahead

US soyabean weekly export sales so far for this marketing year are way above the same point in the past two seasons. For the first three weeks of the 2016/17 marketing year (which starts at the beginning of September), the US exported 2 Mt of soya beans. This is almost 1.5 Mt higher than in the same period for both the 2015/16 and 2014/15 marketing years.

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Market Breifing

The Chicago soy complex finished mixed yesterday with beans slightly higher but meal slightly lower.Chicago wheat futures closed lower yesterday in a fairly quiet news day.Chicago corn was also lower yesterday on fund selling as the market rebounded off overhead resistance.Wet fields continue to be an issue for the US corn harvest with some analysts suggesting that up to 10% of the total acreage is saturated.The US dollar was broadly weaker yesterday following Wednesday’s Fed announcement, with their stance seen as dovish & Bank of England hawk Kristin Forbes playing down the need for further stimulus and suggesting that the Bank of England. may have been “over counting [the] Brexit-uncertainty effect”.

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Market Roundup

Chicago wheat managed small gains but mainly due to $ weakness as the Fed didn’t rise interest rates not a surprise but some had lived in hope. Corn slipped a bit despite the dollar. Soybeans were weaker giving back all of tuesdays gains. The market may well test downside resistance levels again. In the U.K there is a report the CBI trends survey which will indicate our post Brexit direction.

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Chicago Bounce

Wet weather and delays to the corn harvest spilled over into soya on Friday so far today the trend has continued with eCBOT up between $2.4 & $3.7

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Soya Manages an Upturn

After three days of losses, the Chicago soy complex managed a bounce yesterday as positive export sales turned some of the focusaway from the bearish supply news from the USDA which kicked off the week.Chicago wheat closed lower on Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s gains as the weekly US sales report failed to provide any follow through support. Chicago corn was also lower yesterday with disappointing export sales also the main reason cited for weakness.The Bank of England, as roundly expected, left policy unchanged yesterday although the minutes made clear that the majority still expect to vote for lower rates before the end of the year.

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NO BREXIT EFFECT ON JOBS IN UK.

Economists have said the modest fall in UK unemployment to 1.63 million between May and July shows there is yet to be a “Brexit effect” on the jobs market.

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Organic Soya Shortage

A lack of orders has discouraged shippers from buying unsold stock now there is a two month supply line delay.

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Caustic Soda

Supplies of Caustic Soda are currently not meeting demand. Availability is tightening so book it up as soon as you can if you need delivery during August.

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World Grain Harvest Predictions Increased

World grains production will come just 1m tonnes from its record high, the International Grains Council said, lifting in particular its forecast for output of corn, in which it ditched an estimate of a drop in stocks.

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UK Pig prices soar

Spot UK pig prices are dramatically higher since February 2016.

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Sharp Falls in Chicago Markets

All legs of the Chicago soy complex finished lower yesterday, with beans and meal sharply lower on more agreements from weather models suggesting more beneficial conditions in the next couple weeks than had previously been expected,Chicago wheat fell sharply yesterday, pulled lower by losses in corn and beans as well as a bounce in the US dollar The dollar hit a four-month high against a basket of currencies yesterday,

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Defra Reject Second NFU Application for Neonics

Defra have today rejected the second emergency application from the NFU for use of neonicotinoids.

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UK Milk Production Lower

UK milk production is nearly 4m litres/day lower than it was a year ago, according to latest figures from AHDB.

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GBP over $1.30

The Pound has bounced back over the $1.30 mark this morning.

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Grains Weaken on Bearish Fundamentals as Sterling Struggles

:The Chicago soy complex finished mostly lower yesterday but it was a volatile day with beans trading in a 40 cent range and mealwithin a $20 range.Chicago wheat closed lower yesterday, giving back all the gains of Tuesday, with bearish fundamentals continuing to weigh on themarket and weakness in corn also providing pressure. Sterling continued to trade below $1.30 yesterday, falling below $1.28 early in the day before recovering later on.

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Price changes since BREXIT vote

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Soya & Rape sharply down

Hi Pro Soya has dropped sharply overnight by £11 a tonne. Rapeseed Meal is down £4.

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Sterling is not the only thing going down.

The Chicago soy complex finished significantly lower yesterday, with most soymeal contracts finishing limit down, as the returning market participants took their lead from sharp losses in Chinese markets to liquidate positions. Sterling dropped yesterday to a 31-year low against the Dollar to just less than $1.30 as well as a 2 1/2-year low against the Euro.

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Markets Closure for Independence Day lets traders focus elsewhere.

All US markets were closed fo Independence Day yesterday.The weather models look more promising for the US soybean crop as forecasts call for less extreme heat and more rains.Matif wheat and Liffe both closed higher, with concerns continuing in France over the quality of the wheat crop as many argue that issues seen in the yield and test weight of the barley crop are likely to also be apparent in wheat.Sterling managed slight gains yesterday, with the Euro also slightly higher against the dollar. This was despite data yesterday which showed UK Construction PMI had the sharpest contraction since 2009. Gains have been wiped out so far today.

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Pig prices rocket

European Union prices continue to soar coupled to a weak Pound see spot price up 9% from April.

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Hedge Funds to Take Profits

Hedge funds – in a profitable shift – kept the faith with soft commodities, lifting their net long position to a fresh eight-year high, but slashed bullish bets in grains, with potential for more selling to come.

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Markets Square off Before Independence Day Holiday.

The Chicago soy complex closed lower on Friday, likely pressured by some profit-taking after Thursday’s post-report gains. Chicago wheat futures closed sharply lower on Friday, pressured by the ongoing harvest in the US which continues to provide big yield reports, likely adding to the large global surplus.All G10 currencies, with the exception of Sterling, closed higher against the dollar on Friday as uncertainty post Brexit continued to suggest that the Fed will delay any rate hikes in the short to medium term.

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Soya Up £10

Massive Fund buying on the Chicago market has pushed soya much higher overnight. Market reports suggest that they are now disregarding supply and demand figures, crop condition and stock levels.

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Unchanged

Wheat Distillers, Soya Hulls, Palm Kernel are all unchanged on a week ago.

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BREXIT Aftershocks

There has bee a large hike in Organic product since Brexit but with markets stabilising this might prove to be overly protective.The Chicago soy complex finished mixed yesterday with meal closing higher but beans and oil closing lower as traders squared positions heading into tonight.Chicago wheat futures fell to new lows yesterday on ongoing pressure from what looks to be a big crop in the US Plains and Midwest. Sterling was mostly in a consolidating mode yesterday, managing to move to $1.35 as some focus began to switch away from Brexit.,

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Rape prices unaffected by BREXIT

Home Produced Rapeseed meal prices only rose a little at the beginning of the week and have now dropped back to where they were.

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It seems armageddon is over.

FTSE is higher than it was for all of March, at 6300.
Currency is currently standing at $136.00 which is 4% down on the March average.

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Soya on the rise.

Talk of tighter US stocks spurs soy price gains: Soybean futures gain, on ideas of what key data

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Rape prices – chasing soya up

July – £184
Aug – Oct £185
Nov – Jan £193
Feb – April £196

Ex Mill prices

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Straights Prices – Comparison – Before Vote versus Today’s prices

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Outlook for Cereals Bearish

Weather models are in disagreement, but any chance of rains in the corn belt was enough to spark fund selling.Abares forecast world wheat prices falling to a fifteen-year low, while Australian wheat exports are set to rise 4% year on year

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Risk on ? Or Risk Off ? Hedge Fund Dilema

Hedge funds reduced some of their, expansive, bullish bets on agricultural commodities – but may wish they hadn’t, given the firm performance by many contracts late last week.

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Good News and Bad News

Dairy prices rose at Global Dairy Trade to a four-month high, amid talk that cool weather and weak prices are curtailing the surge in European Union milk production.

Feed Prices Rise as the Surge in Ag commodities continues.

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Deep Breaths

Markets taking a breather awaiting fresh news, leading to a quiet close. Soya slightly down today.

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USDA Provide a Shock

The soy complex finished significantly higher yesterday on the back of a shock USDA report which caused the funds to once again pile money into the oilseed. In fact, soymeal finished limit up with soy beans not far off. Most of the surprise lay in both old and new crop carry-outs in the US. The USDA reduced the old crop carry out by 45Mbu to 400Mbu (avg. trade estimate 426Mbu)

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Rape meal Eases

UK Rape meal easier by £2 per tonne across the board.

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Feeling The Pinch ?

The profitability of UK farming fell by a staggering 29% in 2015, a loss of over £1.5 billion. This is the biggest year on year fall since the millennium.

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Soya Sets the Pace.

Chicago soybeans ended higher yesterday, led higher by another rally in soymeal as fund buying was to the fore once again.Chicago wheat futures closed mixed to start the week yesterday with little fresh news to stimulate the market.Sterling reached its highest level against the dollar since the start of January on Monday, tracking gains for the euro against the greenback after solid numbers on manufacturing from Germany and as UK traders return from the long weekend, the pound has managed to breach $1.47.

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Rape – August to October

Down again to £162.00 Ex Mill

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Rape – August – October

Down £5/t to £167.00 Ex Mill

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Hi Pro Soya nudges over the £300/t mark

We have seen a dramatic rise in Soya over the last couple of weeks. On the 5th April we bought at £50/t lower than today’s prices.

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Rape price soars

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Markets Pause for Breath

One of the surprises on yesterday’s markets was the recovery of early losses on the Wheat & Corn markets that were expected to be pressured by a forecast of good weekend rains closing a cent and a half lower on old crop and up by about the same in new crop positions. Talk of a reduction of the amount of stock that China plans to maintain choked of any chance of another really Bullish day but the slight losses at and the close have already been recovered in overnight trading in Soya meal and beans oil is still lower.We do not expect any major prices in the U.K at this stage.

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Very Strong U.S Markets

Very strong US markets fueled by additional Chinese Imports combined with a weakening Sterling over the past few days have a strong upward effect on Soyameal & Rapemeal prices and a steadying in all other Straights in the U.K

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Chicago slips on all but Corn as U.K Rapemeal readjusts Higher

All soya elements closed lower yesterday and wheat was also effected by low export figures meanwhile UK today Rapemeal is £3 higher in the old crop positions the harvest August October range has eased but there is an unexplained increase of £1 in the November 2016 to April 2017 section.

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U.K Prices Rise Due to Weak Sterling

U.K prices are being forced higher due to weakening Sterling.May soybeans fell back from Friday’s high for a second day, pressured by Tuesday’s losses in soybean oil and the Brazilian real. Corn ended a couple cents higher with help from commercial buying while wheat posted a slight loss in the face of dry and windy conditions in the south western Plains.

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Soybeans still gaining from Increased Corn Acres

Grains traded both sides of Thursday’s close, but when the final bell rang on Friday, all three finished higher with the biggest gains going to soybeans. Other commodity markets were not so fortunate with losses seen in livestock, lumber, copper, gold, and crude oil.

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Shortage.What shortage!

A sudden and large reduction in Rapemeal makes a mockery of the supposed pre Easter shortage.

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No Big Surprises from the Easter Bunny

Chicago and K.C. wheat contracts finished higher Monday with ongoing concerns about dry weather in the southwestern Plains. Corn and soy beans tried to trade higher on wheat’s coattails, but finished quietly mixed on light volume.

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WASDE Provides No Lead

Wednesday was USDA report day, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at the sluggish price movement. Soybeans and wheat finished a little higher while corn was a little lower with few changes made to USDA’s February estimates.

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There seems to have been a change in direction

All legs of the Chicago soy complex closed higher on the day, with soybeans hitting two-week highs, as investors continued to cover in some of the record short position they established last week. However gains were pared by reports of farmer selling in cash markets. Funds were buyers of 4000 soybean contracts and 3000 soyoil contracts but were even in soymeal. Weekly US soybean export inspections came in at the high end of expectations at 1.07MMT. Data yesterday showed that China imported 4.51MMT of soybeans in February, which included the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, down 20.3% on January’s imports of 5.66MMT but bigger than last year’s February imports of 4.26MMT. That puts cumulative exports for the Oct/Feb period at 32.22MMT, up 2.4MMT versus last season. In domestic news, the AHDB estimates that the rapeseed area in England and Wales is projected to drop by 10% this year, the lowest rapeseed area since 2009.

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The Brazilian Effect

May soybeans closed higher Friday with a surge of unexpected buying related to political news from Brazil. Corn ended a little higher and survived a test of its January low this week while wheat prices closed mixed on light volume.

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Markets Firm As Week Nears It’s End

After starting the week on a bearish note, wheat has reversed course with fresh concerns about windy and somewhat dry conditions in the southwestern Plains, even getting extra help from Thursday’s lower U.S. dollar. Corn and soybeans were reluctant to follow wheat’s lead, but did hold above price support for another day. Sterling rallied yesterday helping mitigate U.K prices rises.

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