Market Report

UK Rapemeal prices are practically unchanged today. Soya is lower by £2 to £5.00. Chicago wheat & corn markets finished lower for a third straight session yesterday as the market reacted to weakness in other ag markets and ignored some fairly constructive export reports. Matif wheat also leaked lower again while London was mixed.The Chicago soya complex fell to sharp losses yesterday, as the market seemed to forget about the US quality issues which carried the market higher on Monday. The pound dropped down close to $1.30 yesterday as Theresa May repeated that the EU’s proposal on the Irish border was unacceptable.

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Breaking News

A case of Mad Cow Disease has been confirmed on an unnamed farm in Aberdeenshire. Strict movement orders are place the animal did not enter the human feed chain.

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Market Report

UK Rapemeal is indicated at £2 per tonne lower today. The recent reduction in Maize Distillers prices had made Maize Gluten prices unrealistic they are £2 lower today too and would probably be biddable.Chicago wheat futures extended the previous days reversal ending 5 to 6 cents lower corn also eased. Chicago Soyameal managed a modest $1 rise. The US dollar was strong after published FED minutes indicated more rate rises in the pipeline. Sterling wobbled as Brexit talks stumble ideas of extended transition zones are considered as grounds to remove PM May by some MPs.

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USDA report and it’s effect

UK Maize prices are lower by £2/£3 today. Soya in the UK is up £2 to £3 per tonne. Rapemeal is unchanged to £1 lower.The USDA report provided a spark to the market, with Chicago wheat trading in a 15 cent range yesterday before closing 2-3 cents lower. corn rallied after the USDA report, eventually closing 6-7 cents higher, with the USDA cutting US yields by 0.6bpa. Chicago soya complex finished higher yesterday (but off the days highs) after the USDA estimated a slightly smaller than expected US bean crop and new crop carry-out.Sterling capitalised on a weaker US dollar and Brexit optimism (BRINO) in the previous session, hitting a 3-month high yesterday. This morning Sterling mostly continues to hold its ground versus the dollar as some media reports have claimed in recent days that Britain is on the brink of a Brexit deal. For further details and figure see our Market News page.

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Sterling Fights Back

Another positive day for Sterling against the US$ may help lower UK prices again today. Notably a £4 reduction in Maize Distillers.Chicago wheat finished lower again yesterday, taking the losses for the week to around 10 cents. European markets were also lower with London and Matif pressured by the strong pound and euro respectively.Chicago corn leaked lower again yesterday, in more pre-USDA report trade.The Chicago soya complex continued to sell-off yesterday as the market looked to be convinced that tonight’s report will provide a bearish outlook for soya. Sterling continued to push higher on Wednesday after European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier signaled progress on a deal with Britain over its withdrawal from the bloc, as well as on the crucial Irish border question.

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Monday’s Reports

Maize Gluten is down by up tp £3 per tonne today but distillers are unchanged. Palm Kernel has eased by £2 over the Winter months. Rapemeal looks unchanged. Strong August export figures took the Chicago market higher on Friday by up to $7.40 on the December 18 position this has translated in an increase in the UK today of about £5.00 per tonne.Chicago wheat finished mostly 3-4 cents higher on Friday, taking its gains for the week to 12 cents. Chicago corn managed to recover into the close on Friday, finishing slightly higher after being as much as five cents lower earlier in the session.Sterling touched a two-month high versus the euro and gained against the dollar on Friday after the European Union’s Brexit negotiators said they believed a divorce deal with Britain was “very close”. which translates as they are expecting our Government to capitulate.

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Market Report

We saw a welcome fall yesterday in Maize Gluten prices with a shipment imminent into Liverpool down £4pt, Maize distillers also fell £2pt. UK Soya prices are broadly unchanged.Chicago wheat traded in a fairly narrow range yesterday before closing mostly 2-3 cents higher, Corn was also 2-3 cents higher.Despite all legs being in the green for most of the session yesterday, late weakness saw beans and oil finish lower while soyameal just about managed to finished higher.Sterling has made a 10-week high versus the euro and a 5-day high against the dollar this morning, thoughts are the EU may be prepared to give a little ground to the UK government and their DUP partners over their intractable Irish border “Red Herring” issue.

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Market Report

We would expect UK Soya to be higher today and we were wrong if anything slightly lower. Rapemeal down by £2, no changes to Maize Gluten or distillers.All legs of the Chicago soya complex finished higher again yesterday, with soybean oil continuing to lead the charge. Chicago wheat futures finished around 10 cents higher yesterday.Chicago corn market managed to make a 4-week high closed around 2 cents higher.The pound is reported to have slid yesterday as a conflict over UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan escalated but this morning we still find it hovering around $1.30 little change really.

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Some Bearish Realities for Soya

The Chicago soya complex had traded in the green for most of Friday’s session on some more short-covering before a bearish stocks number from the USDA eventually sent all legs lower into the close. September 1st US bean stocks were pegged at 438Mbu (11.9MMT) versus the average trade estimate at 401Mbu (10.9MMT), on higher old crop yields and crop size as well as smaller feed, seed and residual use. In fact 2017 bean production was revised higher by 0.52MMT to a record 120MMT but 2018 production should still easily surpass this. The larger carry-in serves to add to the already bearish 2018/19 outlook if the ongoing trade war with China continues. The only way to now avoid a possible 900Mbu (24.5MMT) plus US carry-out in 2018/19 is either a resolution to the trade war or a Brazilian crop disaster. AgRural reports Brazilian bean planting is 4.6% complete, up from 1.9% last week and still above the 5-year average of 2.1%. For the week, beans finished down 0.75 cents, meal finished down $0.4 and oil finished 0.63 cents. After the close on Friday, the CFTC report put spec-fund buying in the week to September 25th at 1.8MMT for beans and 0.4MMT for meal, leaving them 15.6MMT short and 2.1MMT long respectively

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Market Report

Chicago wheat again traded on both sides yesterday before closing lower for the third consecutive session. Chicago corn had another thin trading session yesterday before closing between 1-2 cents higher on the day. The Chicago soya complex closed higher again yesterday, although once again the gains were fairly muted in beans and meal and it was soybean oil which led the gains. Sterling was fairly range-bound yesterday, with little fresh news to move the market. The euro recorded its biggest one-day decline in seven weeks on Thursday as the battle over fiscal policy intensified. Financial markets are nervous that the Italian government’s spending plans will boost Italy’s debt, which is already the second highest in the euro-zone as a share of economic output after Greece, at around 131 percent of gross domestic product.

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Market Update

There is a slight fall today in UK Maize Gluten Prices. and Maize Chicago wheat could not choose which direction to go in yesterday but eventually closed lower.Chicago corn had a fairly muted session yesterday, trading in just a 3 1/2 cent range before closing around a cent down.All legs of the Chicago soy complex finished higher yesterday, with beans leading the way after the USDA announced a sale of 671,900 MT of US soybeans to Mexico.The biggest event yesterday, as expected, was the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25bps.

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Market Report

UK Rape meal down by £2 nearby and £3 November to April.Chicago wheat had a quiet session on Friday, with futures closing moderately lower on the day. Chicago corn closed higher again on Friday, as follow-through buying from Thursday’s rally continued to push the market higher.The Chicago soya complex also had a muted session to end the week on Friday, although meal did slip $5 lower to give back most of the the previous day’s gains. he pound dropped 1.45% on Friday with growing uncertainty on the outcome of Brexit after both sides stated that they were a long way apart in agreeing a deal.

  • Rain in US causing some loca harvest delays, but good progress seen over the weekend and prospects drier for this week
  • The latest round of tariffs come into effect  today on $200 billion of Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of US products
  • Commitment of traders shows managed money reduce their Soya meal long by 8k contracts to 22k through to 18/09 (attached)
  • Early Brazilian bean plantings now underway, AgRural report 1.9% complete
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Market Report

Wheat traded sideways in Chicago yesterday, closing a little higher. Chicago corn was active closing 7 cents higher.The Chicago soya complex managed strong gains yesterday, with heavy fund buying the main driver. US weekly exports were higher than expected.In terms of the US/China dispute, with China unable to go tit-for-tat (or tariff-for-tariff) with the US due to the trade imbalance, China’s strategy is expected to switch to reducing import tariffs on other countries as a way of further excluding the US from trade.Sterling had a mixed day yesterday but still finished higher on the day.

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Market Report

Wheat managed to buck the trend in Chicago yesterday managing a positive close over fears of delays to the Siberian harvest. Corn was caught as was Soya in the general falls caused by further tariffs placed on Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs from the Chinese on US products. Sterling is doing well bouyed by positive noises been made in Europe ahead of the Salzberg dinner tonight.

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Market Report

We see a slight softening of UK Maize prices today.Despite some reports of weekend frost damage in Australia, Chicago futures could not hold on to earlier gains and finished the day around 5 cents lower.Chicago corn was weaker all day yesterday before closing around 4 cents lower.The Chicago soya complex continued to leak lower yesterday, with beans falling to contract lows to start the week. Sterling has advanced amid optimism over prospects for a Brexit deal with the European Union. Talks between the EU and Britain on Brexit are being conducted in a spirit of “good cooperation” Michel Barnier.

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Market Report

The new week starts with lower prices in the UK for Maize Distillers Corn Gluten Palm Kernel and Rapemeal. Chicago wheat managed a firmer close on Friday ending the week unchanged despite the bearish WASDE report corn also managed a modestly positive close.All legs of the Chicago Soya complex closed lower on Friday, with Soya meal showing the most weakness. Pressure on the day came from newswires carrying the story that the US was ready to implement the additional $200 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods, with no  talks in the pipeline.Sterling slipped on Friday but remained on track for its biggest weekly rise since March..

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Market Report

Initial prices shoe a £2 reduction in UK Soyameal today.In the aftermath of Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report grains continued lower, even more so in Europe with both the Sterling and the Euro gaining ground against the US$.Selling continued in the CBOT soy complex yesterday on spillover weakness from Wednesday’s USDA report along with reports of better than expected early yields and a slightly less optimistic view of the possible renewal of talks with China. The US$ held onto weakness this morning from yesterday’s session, pulled lower by disappointing consumer inflation data, which came hot on the heels of weaker than forecast producer prices making an interest rise less likely. It was a good day for Sterling and the GBP is holding above $1.31 this morning.Traders were focusing more on the central bank lifting growth forecasts than the stark warnings that BofE Governor Mark Carney gave on the potential impact of a no deal Brexit on the UK economy.

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Market Report

UK Rapemeal while listed unchanged was trading £3 lower than Tuesdays levels yesterday status unchanged so far today. In the US Both corn and wheat were pressured by an unexpectedly bearish USDA WASDE report yesterday. The figures for Soya were also bearish however renewed optimism by the intended resumption of US/China trade talks allowed the markets to close in positive territory.Crude Oil is higher today on fears that pipelines maybe damaged by hurricane Florence sterling is still hanging on above $1.30 there is data from the BofE and US CPI data today that will indicate if the the Federal Reserve needs to action more interest rate rises.

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Market Report

Today we see a marked reduction in US Maize Distillers Palm Kernel prices and a small £1 of Maize in the UK.US Corn markets ended unchanged despite a strong day for Wheat markets in the US Europe and LIFFE in London supported by expectations of only 25 MMT of Russian wheat exports this season in comparison to a previous forecast of 35 MMT and 42 MMT last year. US Soya meal and beans moved higher news of frost damage to beans in China and the belief that Brazil is exporting her way out her bean stocks suggest US beans will eventually be needed to fill a gap. Sterling had a good day yesterday and remains above $1.30 this morning good GDP data and positive noises from Brussels about Brexit helped.

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Market Report

There has been a modest increase in Rape meal prices in the UK today. Chicago Wheat Corn and Soya saw falls yesterday in the UK prices are unchanged as Sterling is still under pressure from a strong US dollar. Despite the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up to 54.4 from a downward revised 54.3 in May, beating the consensus of 54.0 in a Reuters poll of economists and above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Sterling remains hamstrung by Brexit uncertainty perhaps the Prime Minister will lead her cabinet the currency to the sunlit uplands of a clean Brexit on Friday but don’t hold your breath.

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Synopsis

The worsening trade dispute between the US and China has reduced risk appetite causing money to flow into the US currency making Sterling and the Euro look weaker. Wheat Corn & Soya fell by almost the daily limit yesterday however later in the session they recovered and have continued to do so over night as the war of words between the two super powers has calmed down.

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Update

Rapemeal price in the UK are lower by £1. Chicago wheat closed more or less unchanged after an active trading day Corn futures ended only slightly higher. Bullish noises from President Trump about the massive quantities of US Ag products China would be buying gave strong support to soybeans in particular. Sterling has moved higher against the US $ and is now in the $1.346 area about half a cent stronger. Inflation and GDP data is expected in the UK later this week which will indicate if there is any liklihood of a rate rise this year.

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USDA WASDE Outcome

UK Rapemeal is £2 PT lower today. The USDA figures were considered slightly bearish for wheat.The news for Soya beans & meal did take the market higher but if fell back off its highs and continued to fall overnight as all the figures were digested. A lack lustre UK economic performance left Mark Carney & the BofE Sterling is treading water as we await the BofE to delay another interest rate rise.This had become expected and so Sterling has held up quite well.

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Soya & Corn March on Wheat & the Dollar Fall Back

Chicago wheat fell for a second straight day yesterday, as funds continued to sell following Tuesday’s highs.Corn inched higher yesterday, still allowing the March contract to make fresh contract highs. Despite some overnight weakness, Chicago soybeans and Soya meal again closed in the green yesterday, with beans making new 2-month highs and Soya meal making new highs.The main economic news came out of the US yesterday, with headline and core CPI coming in stronger than expected. this boosted the dollar but the greenback was then undermined by a much weaker than expected US Retail Sales report for January.

Overnight Grain Markets are mixed to unchanged.  Greatful respite after several straight days of rises. Yesterday the lead analyst at the Rosario Grains Exchange,Emlice Terre said that Argentina could harvest fewer than 50 MMT of soybeans in the 2017-18 crop year. They were hoping for 52 MMT down from 57 MMT last year.

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Mark Carney Says Something Positive.

Corn futures saw most contracts steady to fractionally lower yesterday. Pressure from wheat and month end profit taking was offset by positive export news.Soybean futures finished the Wednesday session with most contracts 2 to 4 3/4 cents lower. Meal futures were down $2.70/ton, with nearby soy oil 1 point in the red. Sterling saw gains against the US$ yesterday, after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney made the case for a UK economic revival in 2019.

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Sterling Falls Back as UK Backbone is Tested & Grains Continue to Rally

Chicago wheat continued its rally yesterday, hitting ten-week highs before closing around 8 cents higher as funds continued to cover shorts.All legs of the Chicago Soya complex ended higher to start the week yesterday, but off the days highs with soybeans running out of steam around $10 on the March contract. Soymeal rallied to near $5 gains but ended up only $2 higher. Sterling fell back below $1.40 this morning battered by panic over bully boy EU tactics the House of Lords warnings that fundamental flaws in the “Withdrawal Bill.” They probably mean the word, “Withdrawal” & the intention to follow the democratic will of the people.Plus three leaked civil service models saying basically the only good thing the UK can do is stay in the EU or as close as possible and make the people suck it up from their unelected Brussels overlords.

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Grain Markets Steady but Sterling Out Performs Again

Chicago wheat managed some decent gains yesterday and in the process halted a three-day losing streak.Chicago corn hit 2-week highs yesterday, as funds covered some of their large shorts. Chicago soybeans and soyameal managed to reverse earlier losses to close in the green yesterday, with soyameal reaching one-month highs. Hopes that UK wage growth could accelerate in 2018 bolstered Sterling exchange rates and pushed GBP/EUR 0.5% higher. Higher wages are inflationary and the Bank of England will therefore most likely need to respond by raising interest rates.

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Sterling Steals The Show.

.Chicago wheat futures closed sharply lower on Friday, on the back of a bearish USDA report. Corn also closed lower on Friday as the USDA report came in mostly negative.Chicago soybeans and soya meal both managed to close in the green on Friday night, despite what looked to be a mostly bearish WASDE report. Sterling rocketed to its highest level against the dollar since the vote to leave the EU on Friday, after a report that the Netherlands and Spain were open to a deal for Britain to remain as close as possible to the trading bloc.

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Report

27.12.17:

Grain futures closed mixed today, a finish that was positive for corn and wheat but negative for soybean’s attempt to extend Tuesday’s gains. While a smattering of export news emerged, most of the focus remains on weather from one end of the Americas to the other.

Outside markets were also mixed. While many investors would like to take the week off between Christmas and New Year’s Day, passage of tax reforms has many accountants and analysts reworking spreadsheets to determine last-minute positioning.

While stocks soared to records around the world in 2017, commodities generally languished. That’s prompting some to take a second look at crops, livestock and metals in hopes for a turnaround.

Crude oil backed off from its test of $60, but diesel prices added to yesterday’s gains, getting a kick from increased heating demand spurred by this week’s frigid temperatures and cold forecasts into January.

Corn prices edged a penny higher today to $3.5375, gaining strength from wheat after breaking out of a narrow trading range overnight.

March futures held a test of the 25-day moving average to maintain an uptrend off last week’s lows. That rally could be put to the test Thursday, with resistance a penny above today’s highs at $3.5525.

Buying continues to come mostly from fund short-covering, with position-squaring ahead of year-end also a factor. Index fund rebalancing kicks off the second week in 2018, though investors could trim corn holdings unless a broad-based return to commodities lifts all boats.

Ethanol futures reversed higher today, posting gains despite the profit taking in crude oil. Prices sold off last week on another strong week of production. The government reports last week’s totals on Thursday, following more slippage in margins at Midwest plants.

Volume remains thin, though today’s initial total of 114,245 was 8% higher than Tuesday’s final figure.

Soybeans reversed lower today, failing to hold gains from an overnight rally. Still, January held above the gap created Tuesday on its chart at $9.52, finishing at $9.555, down 3.75 cents.
Futures followed vegetable oil prices higher in Asia, but couldn’t hold that momentum on the morning open in Chicago, quickly slipping into the red.

The weak start came despite some positive export news. USDA reported the sale of another 4 million bushels of 2017 crop soybeans to China under its daily reporting system for large purchases. The U.S. continues to face intense competition from Brazil, which is still selling its record 2016-2017 crop and benefits from higher protein levels.

Forecasts remain hot and mostly dry for fields in Argentina, where temperatures will top 100 degrees at times during the next week. Yet rains earlier in December improved prospects for planting, the story that captured traders’ attention today. Rains continue to bolster yield prospects in Brazil, further marginalizing the Argentine problems.

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Corn and soybean prices stumble, while wheat finds some footing

Better-than-expected export news helped firm faltering wheat prices, while mediocre corn results kept prices mostly flat in Thursday’s session. Soybean exports were also unexceptional – throw in some additional rain in the forecast for Argentina, and it was a recipe for double-digit losses.

 

La Niña conditions continued to strengthen this past month, fueled by below-average sea surface temperatures in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean. NOAA now says La Niña is likely to stay throughout the winter, with odds of that happening now exceeding 80%. Click here to learn more about possible implications for agriculture, especially if conditions persist into next spring and summer.

As the potential tax bill gets nearer to a vote, lawmakers are ironing out proposed differences in the bill’s child tax credit. The U.S. economy saw retail sales up and jobless claims down in November. Stocks buckled, however, after the FCC ruled it will ditch net neutrality rules. The Dow was down 83 points in early afternoon trading, to 24,563. Energy prices were mixed but mostly higher, anchored by nearly 2% gains for gasoline. The U.S. Dollar also firmed slightly, as did gold and copper prices.

 

Corn prices made minor downward adjustments on lighter-than-expected export volume and large global stocks. December and March futures were each down half a penny to close at $3.3625 and $3.4850, respectively.

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Comments

Chicago wheat yesterday lost another couple cents, with the USDA report failing to provide any support to the market.corn was also slightly weaker at the close, despite the USDA lowering the US carry-out by a larger number than expected.The Chicago soya complex was slightly weaker for most of the day before selling off into the close after a USDA report that brought few significant changes, especially bullish ones. Sterling could not build on a rally yesterday started by higher than expected inflation figures. It was deemed the core situation is unchanged and that inflation has peaked and so interest rate rises seem far off.

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Comments

11.12.17: Chicago wheat futures fell for a fifth straight session on Friday.Corn ended the day with some small gains, helped by some light short-covering by the funds. Soybean prices fell to one-week lows on Friday,Soya meal closed lower on Friday and has added to losses so far today in overnight trading slumping up to $7 in some positions.Sterling fell on Friday, trading almost two U.S. cents below a high reached earlier after a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations, with cautious investors booking profits after a sharp rally in recent days..

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Market Breifing: La Nina Takes Hold.

Corn prices overcame some early morning volatility yesterday, trading in a narrow range from mid morning to close, and finishing close to unchanged.Wheat prices are back near contract lows, as technical trading and big global supplies applied downward pressure once again.La Niña conditions have contributed to some drier conditions in South America, which helped push soybeans into double-digit gains, as planting is being delayed with January contracts finishing north of $10 for the first time since mid-October. Meal and oil were also firmer meal was $10 including overnight trading.Sterling dipped after a report of a failed plot to kill Theresa May. In regards to Brexit negotiations, Downing Street still could not say when the Prime Minister would next be in Belgium.

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Milk Prices

Phew!Milk prices have held up for 2017,with no reductions this month. It’s a
minor miracle, but it isn’t going to last.The pressure is on prices due to falling
butter revenues and a floor less SMP price which, combined, are returning 25
to 26p. That’s around 6p lower than some commodity processors are paying,
and isn’t sustainable.
Cheese and cream prices are holding up,thankfully -­‐ but only due to the time of
year and the seasonal boost to demandthat Christmas brings.
Again it won’t last and come Januarydemand drops away. Cream prices
nearly always fall in the New Year andconsumers rush into their new year
resolution diet fads. Generally speaking,they ditch cheddar cheese for cottage
cheese and the cheddar price also dips.Milk volumes are also ramping up here
and across Europe due to high prices andthe record high Milk Price:Feed Price
ratio. No processor is short of milk. Thebuyers know this, and it’s adding to the
generalnegativepressureandsentimentin the market.

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Rapemeal Rising Rapidly

Cargill have increased their Rapemeal prices in Hull & Liverpool today by £5.00 per tonne. ADM at Erith are reluctant to put out prices today.

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Synopsis

Chicago wheat closed markedly lower yesterday and it was not alone in world wheat markets, with uncertainty over Egypt’s import criteria again providing pressure. Corn reverted to the form of the last few months yesterday, trading in a 2 cent range before ending the day half a cent higher. The Chicago soya complex bounced back yesterday, spending the whole day in the green. Soybean oil was lagging beans and meal but a more bullish NOPA crush report saw oil surge higher into the close.Sterling was broadly unchanged yesterday, perhaps a touch lower. Crude is slipping back from recent highs. UK Rape crushers are Price on application only for nearby positions following the recent leap.

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Market Breifing.

Chicago wheat finished slightly lower again yesterday, with prices struggling for much impetus as fresh news was again lacking.. Chicago corn traded in a 2 1/2 cent range yesterday before closing more-or-less unchanged to start the week.It was a dull start to the week for the Chicago Soya complex yesterday with soybean and soybean oil closing lower but Soya meal just about managing to close in the green.Sterling hit a four-week high against the Euro yesterday, bolstered by the view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade this week.

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USDA Changes Yield Predictions For Soya (As the cat enters the pigeon loft)

We are yet to see the effect on UK prices of the $11.5 to $8.9 surge of Chicago meal yesterday on UK Soya & rapemeal prices but it will be up.Chicago wheat closed lower yesterday for the fourth straight session, falling to six-week lows, as the USDA report confirmed record global wheat stocks. Chicago corn managed some small gains yesterday, mostly following in the wake of soybeans despite an overall bearish WASDE report. Soybeans and soymeal rallied impressively yesterday after a more more bullish than expected USDA report. Beans touched 11-week highs, in the process breaking a four year downtrend, while meal managed to reach 12-week highs.The pound had a rollers coaster day tumbling as Brexit talks were described as deadlocked and than rallying as the Handelsblatt newspaper said that the EU could offer Britain a two-year transitional Brexit deal if the UK settles the divorce bill.

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Market Synopsis

Rapemeal and Soya are broadly unchanged din the UK today.Chicago wheat closed lower for the third straight session to touch one-month lows yesterday, pressured by continued rains in the US Plains which will improve soil moisture. Chicago corn fell to its lowest level since last month’s USDA report, in a fairly quiet day heading into tonight’s report which is expected to again confirm big global corn stocks.Chicago soybeans and Soymeal finished slightly lower yesterday, in traditionally quiet pre-report day trade.Sterling steadied yesterday, holding just above the one-month hit earlier in the week as investors grew concerned on whether entrenched expectations of higher UK interest rates were reasonable given a backdrop of Brexit uncertainty.

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Analysis of Rapemeal Soyameal & Soya Hull Outlook.

A customer asked for our opinion regarding the three straights they buy from us. This it thought you might be interested.

ANALYSIS

Rapemeal & Soyameal are trading in a very narrow band, awaiting new information. We pretty much know how much Rapseed is available to crush in the EU no horrible surprises unless demand takes us by surprise. Rapemeal will nearly always  go up if Soya gets dearer. Yields in the States are better than expected but they know this and do not seem minded to go lower. We get good day when the pound strengthens against the dollar but on the whole I think they are as low as they feel comfortable going and would react strongly to any bullish information. South America seems to be doing well at present but any adverse weather would send tha market upwards quickly.

Soyahulls

These have become quite scarce and have become popular with Compounders across Europe as an alternative fibre source. The offal by product of Milling Wheat is short this year due to higher than expected Wheat quality. So its seems unlikely to improve unless another fibre source is imported or the pound improves a lot. Since Compounders tend to have fixed ingredient contracts and the winter products were formulated months ago demand is likely to remain strong with certain ports running out and being unable to replace we are just coming to the end of six months with no hulls in Tilbury or Southampton. That has not happened for a long time.

Summary

Considering the uncertainty of our times I would take cover on Soyahulls quite a long way forward while they are being offered from you closely port from Asa November onwards.

Soya & Rapemeal

I wish the forward Summer Soya prices were lower but the premium reflects what I siad above the shippers & Chicago traders do not dare commit forwrad at these relatively low dollar levels. Reluctantly I am now bullish I think gaps should be filled and even some forward cover taken.

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Market News

With larger than expected Spring Wheat numbers coming in the Minneapolis market is now a weighing down factor on the Chicago market the opposite to it’s effect at the height of Summer.Chicago corn closed lower, pressured by a 7-week high in the US dollar and good harvest progress in the US and positive yields soya harvesting is a little behind recent years but yields are still running high and so soya products fell also helped by the dollar. Sterling weakened to a 3 week low after manufacturing PMI index fell from 56.9 Aug to 55.9 Sept still in positive territory as well above 50. In the UK today Rape meal is unchanged Soya meal  has eased back tow to £3 pounds.

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SOYABEAN YIELDS HOLDING THE MARKET BACK

The Chicago soya complex was on the defensive again yesterday, despite another big week of export sales. Worries about US bio-diesel demand, as well as talk of good early soybean yields in the US provided most of the pressure. There had been some scepticism over the USDA’s yield figure in the past two reports but early data suggests they might be closer to the mark than had been thought. Weekly soybean sales of 3MMT failed to impress the trade, despite it likely being a record. This is perhaps because seasonal cumulative sales are way lower than last year and global stocks remain ample. Tonight’s report is expected to confirm US September 1st stocks at 338Mbu (9.2MMT) which would be up 141Mbu (3.8MMT) on last year. Global stocks are estimated to be 23MMT larger than last year which has left buyers relaxed and means forward sales are very low.

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Weekend Summary

Chicago wheat closed lower to end the week on Friday, corn finished at one-week highs on Friday as funds covered some of their shorts heading into the weekend.Soybeans and Soya meal rallied to six and seven-week highs respectively on Friday.Sterling skidded against the dollar and the euro on Friday, after British Prime Minister Theresa May failed to give any concrete details for how Britain might retain preferential access to Europe’s single market.

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Should We Be Worried That….

This market wants to go up, it has got no reason to apart from it feels uncomfortably low to Chicago Traders. Chicago wheat hit 5-week highs yesterday, supported by some decent volume of fund short-covering, but actual news was negative with rains forecast for the US Plains & areas of Russia & Ukraine that needed precipitation. All legs of the Chicago Soya complex closed up yesterday, but off the day’s highs.corn also closed higher, on some fund buying as well as broad strength in commodities.The US Dollar climbed against other major currencies after the Federal Reserve signaled the possibility for an additional rate hike before the end of the year.

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UK Soyameal Price still Rangebound.

Yesterdays fall in Chicago has been partly erased on the overnight markets initial prices in the UK look £1 lower.

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Wheatfeed Tightens as Rest of Market Treads Water

Good extraction rates from Milling Wheat is causing a tightness in the supply of Wheatfeed meal & pellets.

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Pound Soars as BofE Hint at Higher Rates

Chicago wheat futures closed higher to end the week on Friday, helped by some fund short-covering.Corn also ended very slightly higher,All legs of the Chicago soya complex ended lower on Friday, with funds looking to book some profits into the weekend after the previous two sessions saw gains of 26 cents on soybeans and $13 on meal.The pound was the star performer again on Friday. Following on from some hawkish comments from the Bank of England.

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As Chicago Markets Bounce Back Sterling Slips From Recent High.

Chicago wheat futures closed slightly higher yesterday, with little fresh news to follow Tuesday’s USDA report. Corn finished more or less unchanged yesterday despite a firmer US dollar and reports that South America continues to be an aggressive exporter of corn.Soybeans and soymeal managed a bounce yesterday, in the process taking back all of Tuesday’s post-USDA losses.Sterling fell on Wednesday after posting its biggest daily gain in more than two months the previous day as investors took profits before a Bank of England meeting today.

It would seem traders are sceptical about the optimistic USDA Corn & Soya yields. With South American weather playing a role for the fist time in a while. Rain is delaying planting in Argentina dryness is delaying planting in Brazil.

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USDA WSADE

The main feature of the USDA World Supply & Demand report was the unexpected increase predicted for Corn & Soya bean yields. Many analysts had been expecting a cut as a consequence Soya Beans Meal & Corn fell there has been s little recovery overnight trading

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Maybe Bullish Twinges in Chicago Should Not Be Ignored

Chicago wheat finished higher yesterday, Most of the support came from continued fund buying,  Corn closed higher on a mix of fund short-covering and worries about the US crop given cooler than normal conditions in the US Midwest. Potential drier weather mixed with colder temperatures in the US Midwest are leading to some concerns over the US soya crop at the moment.Sterling is one of the best performing currencies of the past 24 hours with an especially strong performance being seen against both the US Dollar and the Euro. These are really the first truly Bullish moves we have seen in months with funds reducing their considerable short positions.

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UK Soya Meal Higher

Sterling is holding at £/$1.28 but Chicago meal was higher by $2.6 to $4.4 24th So UK prices are up by £3.00 per tonne on the first prices seen today.

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Market in Brief

UK Rape meal is firmer by £1 or £2 pounds today. Global wheat markets continued to capitulate yesterday, with both Chicago and Matif seeing fresh contract lows and November London wheat dropping to its lowest level in four months. Corn closed lower yesterday, reaching 51-week lows.Chicago soybeans and Soya meal closed little changed yesterday but oil managed a fifth straight day of gains.Sterling looked weak yesterday and this weakness has continued into this morning with cable falling below $1.28 while the euro has gained 0.5% on the pound in the past hour and has broken the 92 pence barrier.

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Rapemeal Prices

So far today U.K Rapemeal is unchanged from yesterday but European Markets are trading higher on nearby months

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Latest Crop Report Downgrades Soybeans.

The latest crop conditions report puts soybean conditions at 62% good/excellent. Down 2% in a week 9% lower than this time last year.Conditions fell the most in Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina (down 5% good/excellent), Nebraska and Illinois (down 4% good/excellent) and Kansas (down 3% good/excellent). Conditions improved in Louisiana (up 2% good/excellent) and Minnesota (up 1% good/excellent). However despite conditions dropping and all the adverse weather talk, reports suggest that there hasn’t been much of a negative impact on yield models just yet, which could imply that good yield potential in the East portion of the Midwest is offsetting the poor.

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Silage Additive

FARM SILE – Biological silage additive. Delivered in sachets. £58.00 / sachet. (1 sachet / 100 tonnes)

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Caustic Soda

Currently we have a few pallets left in stock however, it remains scarce & expensive because China is buying all available product.

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Palm Kernel

Today – Palm kernel up £2/t on poor supply.

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Wheatfeed pellets now at £100/t

Wheatfeed pellets are now trading at £100/t tonne ex mill.

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Spot pig prices strong

Spot prices are currently at £1.73

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eCBOT

The overnight trading electronic trading market is trading $2 to $2.8 higher partly reversing the $6.3 to $7.8 fall of CBOT Soyameal yesterday.

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Soya drops on Brazilian Farmer selling

The Brazilian currency is falling and farmers are selling as much as they can before the Real drops further.

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Rape prices down £2

UK Rape prices dropped £2 overnight to spot £177.50

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Lower Chicago & Strong Pound

Lower Chicago Soyameal  & a stronger pound aganist the dollar have produced a £5 drop in UK Hi Pro Soyameal prices.

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UK Pigs still in short supply

Supply of UK pigs is still behind demand with prices hitting £1.64/kg.

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UK Rapeseed Meal

Moved up again today, now well into the £200’s.

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Wheat Gluten

In Teignmouth is very tight awaiting the next shipment.

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UK pig prices remain strong

British pig numbers remain tight, spot prices are up 4p to £1.51

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Corn Versus Soya

There has been speculation that US Farmers intend to use Corn acres to plant Soya beans this season. However suggestions are the market may well become volatile at the end of the week if you believe this quote from agrimoney.com

“For Thursday and Friday bring a key event for investors in the first official forecasts, that really count, for 2017-18 US crop prospects – which in turn have a big say in the outlook for prices worldwide.

Sure, the US Department of Agriculture in November unveiled initial estimates for 2017-18 (and beyond) within its long-term “baseline” forecasts.

But the statistics revealed at this week’s annual USDA Outlook Forum take the data from somewhere near the back of the envelope to good working assumptions.”

For what it is worth even when US Farmers intend to go for corn they often end up planting soya as that plants planting window end later so I think we are looking at a big Soya crop worldwide.

 

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WASDE Report changes only effect Wheat

The soy complex in Chicago finished on the defensive yesterday with March beans settling down 8¼ cents and meal closing down $2.80 with oil futures finished practically unchanged. The WASDE report was not much of an event, as USDA made no alterations in their bean, meal and oil balance sheets.The USDA’s wheat numbers provided some surprises and a market reaction to yesterday’s report with futures ending up 8-12¢. US Wheat exports were unexpectedly raised by 1.36 MMT to 27.9 MMT. Corn closed 1-2¢ lower following the USDA report which held a few surprises on both sides. US ethanol demand was raised 25 Mbu. The US$ rallied after Trump said he would release details of a “phenomenal” tax-cut plan.Investors are keeping a wary eye on events in Europe, where a fresh debt crisis might be brewing in Greece after the IMF warned the targets prescribed for it to qualify for European bailout cash are unrealistic.

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Round up

Chicago beans rallied to 2-week highs there were reports of Chinese buying ahead of the USDA export sales report today soyameal closed $5.3 higher nearby declining to $2.3 higher for new crop. UK Rapemeal has eased slightly today. U.S Wheat & Corn were marginally higher as some protection was sort ahead of the WASDE figures.Despite Euronext wheat rallying to a 4-week high on potential exports, UK wheat could not follow the move. May-17 LIFFE wheat ended lower for a fourth day in a row, the longest losing streak since the end of November. GBP held above $1.25 as warnings about the economic impact of Brexit failed to reverse the positive effect of suggestions the economy could sustain interest rate rises.

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Market Synopsis

Funds were active in the Chicago soy complex yesterday, buying an estimated 6000 contracts of both soybeans and soymeal yesterday to push the market higher, despite Brazilian crop estimates especially continuing to creep higher.Chicago wheat managed some decent gains yesterday, mostly supported by some fund-buying, with fresh fundamental news lacking.corn managed gains of around 5 cents yesterday, bringing it to the top of the 7-month trading range, as funds stepped in to do some buying. Today we will get the latest production estimate from the US ethanol industry, which should continue to show strong production .Sterling bounced back late yesterday, driven chiefly by junior Brexit minister David Jones saying parliament would be given a “meaningful” vote on the final deal to leave the EU. Bank of England’s Kristin Forbes added to support by saying they should raise interest rates soon if growth remains solid and inflation continues to accelerate. Rapemeal has eased by £1 even as Matif Rapseed strengthened due to Sterling strength against the Euro.

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Corn, soybeans slip, wheat inches higher

Corn, soybeans and wheat futures moved in narrow ranges on Thursday as the market consolidated after Wednesday’s more significant gains. While the weekly exports were as expected or better than expected they were not enough to generate much excitement from buyers or sellers.

Outside markets offered little guidance with Wall Street up about 40 points when the crops closed, crude oil down 22 cents, gold higher and the dollar hovering near unchanged.

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Sterling confused by Supreme Court Decision

Brexit news dominated headlines yesterday after the UK Supreme Court ruled that the government must go through Parliament before Article 50 can be activated. However, in positive news for Brexiteers the court also ruled that the devolved Scottish, Welsh and N. Ireland assemblies cannot halt the process. UK Secretary of State for Exiting the EU David Davis said the government would present such legislation “within days” and activation of the formal Brexit processes by the end of March 2017 still looks likely. The decision overall was seen as clearing the way for Prime Minister Theresa May to get on with launching Brexit talks as it looks like she will have enough votes to get it through. Sterling did experience some intra-day volatility, initially falling on the Court announcement but then reaching a 5-week high against the dollar later in the day.

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USDA Take Markets by Surprise

USDA surprised Chicago Traders  yesterday reducing carry out, acres planted and expected 2017 yield for Soya Corn & Wheat. Soyameal soared  up to $13.50 Wheat was up 7.4 cents Corn a more muted 1.4 cents per bushel. UK Rapemeal has responded by rising  £5.00 per tonne.

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Pig Prices still strong

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Out for Dairy Prices 2017

Dairy commodity prices recovered in 2016 – and how – as the market slump of the previous two years at last put the brakes on output.The recovery was also helped by renewed interest by Chinese buyers, after inventories run up during a 2013-14 buying spree eroded.Prices, as measured by the GlobalDairyTrade index, rebounded by 47%, making dairy one of the strongest markets of the year – albeit the index remained well below a 2013 peak.But will values continue in 2017 to track towards that high? Or will higher prices boost output and stem the recovery?

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EU Soft Wheat Harvest

Strategie Grains pegged next year’s EU soft wheat harvest at 152.9MMT, representing an 8MMT increase from this year’s harvest.

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A Financial Market Report You Won’t Get On The BBC

It was a quiet day in currency markets yesterday, mostly due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Sterling is heading for its strongest monthly performance in eight years in both index terms and against the euro, hitting a nine-week high against a basket of currencies yesterday. The move higher against the euro has been particularly pronounced, with investors seemingly shifting their focus from political risks in the UK to risks in Europe. Italy faces a constitutional referendum in just over a week’s time while there are worries over the outcome of both the French and German elections next year. Yesterday a Presidential candidate in Austria also said he may call for a vote on the country’s continued EU membership if he is voted in.

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Morning Report 23.11.16

Chicago soybeans finished higher for a fourth straight session yesterday, hitting their highest level since mid-July in the process, as funds continued to be active. Soymeal managed four-week highs. The main news of day was bearish for U.S beans with China buying in South America but reality has always only ever been an option.Chicago wheat finished lower in the nearby but slightly higher further forward in another day lacking in fresh news input. Corn closed with marginal gains yesterday, despite funds buying a reported 6000 contracts on the day, with fresh news limited and corn mostly following soybeans.The US Dollar steadied near a 14-year high yesterday, still bolstered by President-Elect Donald Trump’s plans for fiscal stimulus – which may drive the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

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Market Synopsis

The Chicago soy complex finished in positive territory yesterday, supported by a big monthly US crush report as well as further reports of export sales.Wheat closed higher on Tuesday, recouping some but not all of Monday’s losses, with continued dryness and above normal temperatures in the US Plains providing support.Corn was also higher yesterday on bargain-buying as well as spillover strength from a 5% climb in crude oil futures which should feed through into better ethanol prices. The pound fell for a second day versus the dollar yesterday, pressured by a leaked memo, probably a frabrication, which suggested there was no clear government plan for Brexit. Inflation proved to be lower than feared reducing the chance of any interest rise.Google announced that they too will remain committed to the U.K which helped steady Sterling.

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Is The Trump Effect Over ?

Yesterday saw large losses for grains across the board as CBOT digested a bearish WASDE report & tried to come to terms with the election outcome. Sterling rose to $1.24 but overnight trading has reversed all the losses and actually taken markets higher so that in the UK we will see commodity price rises today.

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Surprise Figures Sends Grains Tumbling.

Corn and soybean futures lurched lower, dragging wheat lower too, after the US lifted its forecasts for domestic harvests of both crops to record highs above investors’ expectations, cautioning over soy crushing prospects too.

Grain futures, which had largely recovered from losses incurred after Donald Trump’s victory in US presidential elections, fell back solidly into negative territory on surprise at the extent of the upgrades by the US Department of Agriculture to its hopes for domestic crops.

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Wheat Gluten

Wheat Gluten in Teignmouth has run out. We are awaiting an eta of the next vessel.

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U.K Plantings

AHDB estimate this season’s UK wheat area falling 1% to 1.8Mha, partly reflecting problems in controlling black grass, a weed that is now found on about 60% of arable land. The winter barley area was forecast to fall 9% to 397,000ha with spring barley sowing seen 17% higher at 799,000ha. Britain’s rapeseed area for the 2017 harvest is forecast to fall to a 13-year low. The survey put Britain’s rapeseed area at 557,000ha, down 4% from the prior season as problems with cabbage stem flea beetle curbs plantings in the east of England. If realised, this would be the lowest area planted to OSR in the UK since 2004.

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Market Roundup

U.K rapemeal lower by £2.00 today.The Chicago soy complex was fairly inactive yesterday, finishing only slightly higher despite another big week of exports.Chicago wheat closed lower yesterday, on the back of a disappointing weekly US export sales number as well as the decision by the Egyptian Central Bank to float their currency.Corn finished slightly higher yesterday, with news mostly limited to an encouraging weekly export sales report.Sterling had a big day yesterday, managing to rally above $1.24 and move 3 cents above where it opened the week. The rally reflected a combination of the UK High Court ruling that only Parliament can trigger Article 50 and the Bank of England leaving interest rates unchanged and Mark Carney hinting at possible rises to curb inflation.

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Markets on Friday in Breif

Chicago soybeans & soymeal closed lower on Friday mainly due to end of week profit taking but soyoil did finish higher supported by gains in the Malaysian Palm Oil price.Chicago Wheat also closed lower on Friday again profit taking was involved as funds sold 2500 contracts. Chicago Corn was also lower on Friday on some profit taking as funds sold 4000 contracts.Sterling hit an eight day low against the Euro on Friday, after Northern Ireland’s High Court ruled that the law of the province did not restrict the British Prime Minister’s ability to trigger an exit from the European Union. Suggesting that currency traders think that the pound will go up if the country actually breaks up as long as some part of it remains in  E.U.

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Bullish Momemntum Developing

Soybeans charged to a two-month high and topped $10 for the first time since early September amid several bullish market factors that included higher vegetable oil markets overseas, a weather-delayed canola harvest, and optimism for more export business.

Those gains pulled corn and wheat higher, with wheat getting added support from ongoing concerns about dry conditions in the Plains and from Egypt paying a higher price for wheat. In outside markets, the dollar is lower for the second day, but retains much of its recent gains.

The corn and soybean harvests may be delayed a few days in the Midwest as rain moves through. The weekend should be dry, but more rain is forecast there next week.

Equities are higher, with the Dow industrials up about 25 points. Crude oil was about 85 cents lower as failed efforts to cut global production outweighed support from a drop in weekly stocks.

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Roundup for October 24th

Corn weighed down by harvest; wheat falls

Soybeans closed at about a seven-week high and above key moving averages following gains in vegetable oil markets and better-than-expected export shipments.

Corn closed a few cents lower amid the ongoing harvest and after USDA report a decline in weekly export shipments. Wheat markets were lower after a 47% drop in export shipments.

A dry weekend in the Midwest plus a dry Monday had farmers rushing to finish corn and soybean harvests before rain arrives at midweek. Forecasts have rain arriving late on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 29-Nov.2) puts rain across the northern half of the Midwest. It also has above-normal temperatures for much of the country.

The dollar is higher again and near an eight-month high as expectations increase for a rate hike late this year. Equities are higher, with the Dow industrials up about 82 points when the crops closed, following better-than-expected earnings and merger activity. Crude oil is about 28 cents lower and gold is about $ an ounce lower.

Exports – USDA, Reuters

-Weekly export inspections: corn 21.3 million bushels vs 34.6 million prior week, soybeans 100.7 million vs 92.2 million, wheat 9 million vs 17.1 million.

-Egypt tendered for an undisclosed amount of wheat from a number of suppliers, including the U.S., after the crop markets closed. Results are expected on Tuesday.

Corn

Corn finished about four cents lower and at a one week low following active weekend harvesting and after USDA’s weekly export inspections of 21.3 million bushels missed trade forecasts and were down from the prior week.

Harvesting should remain active today and tomorrow before the rain arrives late on Tuesday and continues Wednesday. Hedge selling in the futures was likely as farmers are selling newly harvested corn and holding onto their beans, grain dealers said.

Ethanol futures rose early to a four-month high but fell sharply to trade a little lower when the crops closed.

The CBOT estimated Monday’s corn futures volume at 221,581 compared with Friday’s actual of 190,076. Open interest on Thursday decreased by 1,682 and that included a decrease of 11,117 in December and increase of 4,985 in March.

December corn closed down 4-1/4 at $3.48-1/4 per bushel and March down 4-1/4 at $3.58.

What to Look For: Last week’s market rally prompted hedge selling of harvested corn even as cash prices remain shy of profitable levels. Trade forecasts put corn harvest at about 60% done in USDA’s crop progress due later today.

Soybeans

Soybeans closed higher and about a seven-week high following the bullish export shipments and higher vegetable oil markets.

Soybean oil futures set contract highs in a number of months helped by more gains in palm oil and canola. Declining production due to adverse weather in Asia has supported palm oil prices, while wet fields and approaching winter could reduce Canada’s canola harvest. Canola futures are at a four-month high in Winnipeg trading.

Today’s soybean export inspections of 100.9 million bushels were up from a week ago and topped trade forecasts. China easily took the majority of that amount.

The gains came despite reports of good yields from the Midwest harvest and reports that a few elevators are piling soybeans outside as grain bins are full.

The lead November continues to lose open interest as traders move positions to deferred months. The contract closed above the 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. The RSI is about 61 on technical charts, where 70 is considered overbought.

The CBOT estimated soybean futures volume for Monday at 364,613 compared with Friday’s actual volume of 229,057. Open interest on Friday decreased by 54,522 and included a decrease of 71,762 in November and an increase of 12,983 in January.

November soybeans closed up 9 at $9.92 and January up 10 at $10.02.25.

What to Look For – Farmers are harvesting a big crop and the dry weather forecasts should keep combines in the fields. Harvest progress is expected at about 75% in this afternoon’s weekly progress report.

Wheat

Winter wheat closed lower and at a one-week low following disappointing weekly export shipments. The soft red winter market closed under key moving averages while Kansas City’s hard red winter bottomed at the 20-day’s $4.13-3/4.

Wheat continues to be a follower now that the U.S. harvests are done and in the bins. The lower export shipments added to a bearish view. However, year-to-date shipments are up 27% from a year ago.

After the close, Egypt announced a new tender to buy an undisclosed amount of wheat for Dec. 1-10 shipment. Results are expected late on Tuesday. As with previous tenders, the wheat can be from a number of suppliers including the United States. The U.S. wheat can be soft white or soft red winter. Egypt has favored Black Sea origins in recent tenders.

The 6- to 10-day outlook favors dry conditions for the central and southern Plains. While the winter wheat is doing well, some talk has developed about dry conditions in the region. Analysts have a wide range of estimates for winter wheat’s condition – 50% to 68% good/excellent –in USDA first condition rating of the season later today.

Rain moves through Brazil this week where wheat harvest is under way. Southeast Australia’s wheat harvest should have some light showers. Southwest Russia, where wheat is being planted, may receive rain this week while eastern Ukraine looks dry.

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Market Round UP

UK rapemeal easier by £1 per tonne today. All legs of the Chicago soy complex closed higher yesterday, with beans and oil especially firm and meal following suit, overnight markets have soyameal firmer between $0.30 & $1.80.Chicago wheat futures continued their firmer tone to start the week yesterday and are firmer overnight by 0.6 & 2.4 cents per bushel.Chicago corn closed mixed yesterday, being supported mostly by a rally in the soybean market, but are firmer overnight by 0.2 to 3.2 cents.GBP/USD was mostly weaker yesterday but managed to move higher in late evening/early morning currently trading just under $1.23.Crude oil was mostly lower yesterday as Libya, Nigeria & Iran all increased production.

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Market Round Up.

UK Rape meal prices are unchanged today.The Chicago soy complex finished mixed on Friday, with beans and oil higher (oil especially so) but meal closing lower. The overnight market has all soy products in positive territory with meal having regained most of Fridays losses.Chicago wheat futures closed higher again on Friday, as focus continued to be on the demand side of the global s&d picture. That direction continued overnight in a more muted fashion.Corn also
closed higher on Friday and is a further 1.6 to 2.2 cents up overnight.Sterling slipped 0.3 percent to $1.2138 early on Friday but spend most of the day around $1.22. Currently trading at $1.2151 & E1.1049 as Brexit fears still abound.

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Attention turns back to harvest

Corn, soy beans and wheat futures closed lower on Wednesday as USDA again confirmed that farmers will be harvesting record large corn and soy bean crops this fall.

Crop numbers in the monthly report were close to forecasts, with corn production trimmed slightly from September to 15.06 billion bushels and soybeans raised to nearly 4.27 billion bushels from September’s 4.2 billion. Both amounts would be records if realized.

Wheat markets appeared to succumb to pressure from the lower corn and soybeans as the USDA report offered lacked surprising data for that crop.

Farmers harvesting Midwest corn and soybeans will likely dodge rain today but should have dry weather on Thursday. More rain arrives in Iowa on Friday. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 17-21) has more rain for the Midwest and above-normal temperatures for most of the country.

In other markets, Wall Street’s Dow Jones industrial average was up about 43 points shortly after the crops closed to recover a portion of the previous day’s big losses. Crude oil was down about 60 cents a barrel when the crops closed. The dollar sped to a seven-month high.

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Reliably Unreliable Grain Numbers.

Grain markets are becoming more vulnerable to “price shocks” – and even to witnessing another Great Grain Robbery – thanks to the growing stranglehold of countries on which ag investors find difficult to find accurate data.

The decrease in the grip of Canada and US on world wheat exports – their combined market share has fallen from 70% to 30% since 1972 – has meant a reduced amount of trade covered by countries with a strong record of offering detailed data over crop production and demand, the AHDB’s Jack Watts.

Instead, trade has switched in many cases to nations which offer less insight into their grain dynamics, meaning traders have less information on which to base prices.

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There’s a surfeit of Wheatfeed

Today Wheatfeed is offered at £108 ex Mill, but they’d do it for less if you have an interest.

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Soya Hulls

Soya hulls are in short supply in the south of the country. Not available at all in some ports

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GBP settling

The pound has settled back to where it was yesterday following the overnight “Flash Crash” blip.

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Sterling Under Renewed Pressure

Sterling has fallen to $1.2636 and is currently trading against the Euro at £1.1302. While this is great news for our Agri exports unfortunately your straights feed prices will have risen since this mornings posting.

 

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British pork is now bargain of the decade…

high-welfare and cheaper than imported

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The price in sterling has increased 48% since the January low.

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Lets shed a Little Light.

“However into the second half of the session fund activity was a feature as they looked to defend their long positions, which were established at higher levels. ”
The above sentence is taken from our market report, lets unpack it. It means that despite a bearish scenario for Soya products the funds are long and wrong. Trade is thin so if they throw money at the market at the right time they can force it back up and save their bacon. The problem they do this until the bearish phase is over and so actual bullish news comes in. This basically reduces the opportunity for consumers, that’s you guys, to buy forward at the true market low.

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Bears Should Be Happy

Chicago soybeans closed lower again yesterday. Soymeal was in fact the biggest loser in percentage terms, pressured by poor demand.Chicago wheat was lower to start the week, closing below $4 on the nearby month and making its weakest close since the start of the month.Corn fell to its lowest levels in almost four weeks yesterday, pressured by the ongoing harvest as well as a more open weather forecast for the US Midwest.Sterling fell to new five-week lows against both the dollar and the euro yesterday as Brexit worries continued to hang over the market.

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US Soybean Exports Race Ahead

US soyabean weekly export sales so far for this marketing year are way above the same point in the past two seasons. For the first three weeks of the 2016/17 marketing year (which starts at the beginning of September), the US exported 2 Mt of soya beans. This is almost 1.5 Mt higher than in the same period for both the 2015/16 and 2014/15 marketing years.

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